The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 1,341 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 40 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Monroe-Anderson: Starlink resists jamming far better than standard space comms and GPS
“Starlink is, is generally really, ah, robust against jamming. It's kind of unique, though, because often space-based comms, like, your satellite is so far away that your signal strength is relatively low, and it's actually very easy to jam. This is why GPS is …”
Lopez: Base Power install costs are identical for 5 or 40 kWh
“Our install costs are basically the same whether or not we install, you know, five or 40 kilowatt hours.”
Lopez: Base Power home batteries are designed to survive total floodwater submersion
“This can be submerged in water if we don't, obviously don't desire it to be, but if you're in Houston or somewhere on the coast in Florida if it floods, you're totally fine.”
Lopez: Base Power currently installs more than 100 home batteries per day
“Right now we're installing over a hundred a day, and we're gonna hopefully double that here pretty soon.”
Fox: Voice AI became reliable data capture only in the past year
“Like for the first time probably ever in the past year, it's like a reliable form of data capture.”
Hurlston: Copper wiring can no longer support necessary data center signal distances
“Inside the data center, you have speeds are increasing, bandwidths are increasing, and copper can no longer carry these signals the distances they need to go.”
Hurlston: Lumentum Tripled Top-Line Revenue in Five Quarters
“I've been with the company only a short period of time. I've been there about five quarters now. And in those five quarters, we've tripled our top line revenue.”
Cognition completed the Windsurf acquisition over a single weekend
“We got in touch with the Windsurf team that evening, so it was Friday evening, and then basically over the course of that weekend we,
Worked out the entire acquisition together. So, by Monday morning, we had the announcement ready to go.”
Friedberg: Higher ed administrative staff grew 6x over 30 years while enrollment stayed flat
“In the last 30 years, administrative staff in educational institutions has grown by six X, while students have been flat.”
Desai: A major US telecom was refused regional cloud capacity
“The other, you know, large telecommunications company in the United States was also similar. They had one particular hyperscaler, and they said this hyperscaler refused to give them additional regional capacity that they needed. So they signed with the second …”
Agrawal: Decagon routes roughly 90% of its production through open-source models
“As Jesse from Decagon wrote very eloquently a big portion of their volume goes through open source, about 90% now.”
Grinberg: Enterprise open model token share surged past 10% by May
“At the beginning of the year, we saw enterprises were using less than one percent open models, like less than one percent of their tokens were going to open models. Then in around March, it kind of crossed that one percent threshold. And then in May, it crosse…”
Liang: SambaNova inference uses standard air-cooled racks and Ethernet
“Standard 19 inch rack, standard air cooling, no complicated liquid cooling retrofit in the data center. We're using standard Kubernetes, standard Red Hat Linux, standard Ethernet at the top for networking. We don't have to use all this kind of really expensive…”
Venner: SpaceX scaled from 1 booster/year to 40 boosters/year
“When I joined SpaceX, it was again about a thousand employees producing about one booster a year. And through the years of growing up Warp Drive, the custom platform we built there, we scaled it up to 40 boosters a year and 9000 employees across multiple locat…”
Black: Wire harnessing can reach 25% of a vehicle's cost
“It could be 25% of the cost of your vehicle in any given moment too.”
Black: SpaceX outsourced 95% of Falcon and Dragon wire harnesses
“I was the manager of the research and development team for electronics, so I did a little bit of everything that went into a rocket and a satellite, and wire harvesting was the bane of our existence, and we outsourced 95% of it for Falcon and Dragon back in th…”
Black: Senra holds only DOL-certified wire harness training program
“We're actually the only US Department of Labor certified training program for wire harnessing.”
Venner: SpaceX scaled from 1 to 40 boosters annually with Warp Drive
“When I joined SpaceX, it was again about a thousand employees, Producing about one booster a year, and through the years of growing up Warp Drive, the custom platform we built there, we scaled it up to 40 boosters a year and 9000 employees across multiple loca…”
SpaceX sustained its accountability culture through intentional hiring and promotion
“For the time that I was at SpaceX, they were able to sustain the culture as it grew up. So they hired, promoted, trained to keep that accountability culture in place, and that outcomes-based culture in place while we were going there.”
Black: Senra produces over 4,000 units weekly for a defense client
“We're building actually 4000 plus of a unit weekly, and this is where Senra did the prototyping early on, stepped into production, and be able to scale very quickly after that, too.”
Senra quickly built a 120-foot wire harness blocking a multi-billion-dollar program
“This is a 120 foot long harness that goes into a defense system, and we got called in the 11th hour to go build this thing in two months because they are blocking a multi-billion dollar program, and then we are building it today.”
Feldman: Cerebras IPO created about 1,000 employee millionaires
“At IPO, it was more. It was about a thousand.”
Feldman: Real estate timelines make data center capacity a major industry limitation
“Data centers had historically moved at sort of the speed of real estate, right? Somebody would decide to build a building and two years later after permits and they poured concrete and the building would go up and two years ago nobody cared about AI. All right…”
Feldman: Google TPU Co-Design with Gemini and DeepMind Is a Major Advantage
“One of the advantages Google has is that their TPU can be designed in collaboration with the team building Gemini or the team of DeepMind, and so they can inform their choices back and forth, and that's an enormously powerful thing that is surprisingly relativ…”
Mathew: Supabase is growing 350% at hundreds of millions in scale
“So we can take Supabase, for example, which is the backend database to a lot of agent workflows and agent applications. That's growing 350% at hundreds of million dollars of scale, and they have virtually no salespeople. It's all inbound.”
Mathew: Most agentic workflow usage is coming from inside enterprises
“Most of the usage that we're seeing is actually coming from inside the enterprise.”
Mathew: Supabase grew from under 1M to 9M developers in over a year
“They just crossed nine million developers You know, last week when we first invested, it had under a million developers, and that was at the beginning of last year.”
Mathew: Cyera is the highest-valued private security company
“And so, they're actually one of the, I think they're the highest valued private security company on the market.”
Field: Designers now provide Figma the critical feedback developers used to give
“Designers are giving us the feedback that we used to get from developers now.”
Randle: StarCloud was the only company with a GPU operating in space
“They were the only company that had a GPU in space, so there was already some things that, that we saw in attraction, but it was based on the people.”
Armstrong: Existing tokenized stock products are synthetic derivatives, not directly backed
“There are some products that are out there today, but they're actually not one-to-one backed by the stock itself. They are a derivative or a synthetic. So there are ways to get exposure, but you're not actually owning the underlying asset.”
Armstrong: 83% of Americans say the financial system is not working for them
“If you survey Americans, something like 80, I think 83% of them say that the financial system is not currently working for them”
Armstrong: Legacy finance relies on outdated 1990s COBOL mainframe code
“Our financial system is the legacy financial system is it's slow. It's creaky. It's old. You know, in many cases it's built on code that was written like in the nineties and COBOL and like these kind of mainframe computers. And a lot of that stuff just Hasn't …”
Armstrong: The US Ranks 11th or 12th Globally in Economic Freedom
“And I think that America is one of the more free market capitalist countries in the world. It's not the most. It's, I think it's in the top 11 or 12. You can actually go look at the rankings, right? There's various organizations that publish rankings of the ec…”
Armstrong: Base enables sub-second USDC global transfers for under a cent
“You know, with crypto rails, you can now send money instantly less than a second anywhere in the world for less than a cent, and you can do that on the base network with USDC, for instance, and that's democratizing payments, right, and just bringing, lowering …”
Armstrong: Coinbase stores more crypto than any other company globally
“In terms of Coinbase's unique advantage, I mean, so we're storing more crypto than any other company in the world.”
Armstrong: Coinbase bug and incident rates dropped per line of code shipped
“We're actually seeing, like, the rate of bugs and incidents go down per line of code shipped”
Armstrong: Open-source AI models lag frontier models by 3–6 months at 99% lower cost
“The open source models are about three to three to six months behind the frontier models, right? But they're 99% cheaper for inference.”
Pincus: Smartphone users download an average of zero new apps monthly
“I mean, we download an average of zero new apps a month.”
Pincus: First Round Offered Repeat Founders $250k Notes Sight Unseen
“And then I met with Josh Koppelman, and they had this deal at first round that they would give any second time founder, a 250 K bridge note with a ten million dollar cap, sight unseen.”
Slotowicz: New jet buyers are skipping light jets for super-mids and heavies
“Normally people would sort of enter the market by starting to charter, or they would start with getting a light jet. And people are now going straight for the super mid, straight for the heavy. They're going straight towards buying like the, you know, or buyin…”
Palantir CEO Alex Karp spent roughly $17M on private flights in 2025
“Yeah, last year in 2025, I think it was publicly reported that Alex Karp spent around seventeen million dollars on flying, and it, if you kind of like do some of the math on the price and the per hour, it came out to around three months in the air.”
Slotowicz: Starlink installation costs about $300,000 per private jet
“It's about a 300,000 dollar cost to install on an aircraft like this. Very slightly on a bigger aircraft or smaller aircraft.”
Slotowicz: 90% of Craft private charter missions prefer no flight attendant
“90% of the missions we have, like, people prefer no flight attendant.”
Pereyra: No Single AI Model Wins Across All Legal Tasks
“What we've seen is actually every different model is good at something different. And so with the initial results we saw, Anthropics models are quite strong, but there's areas where a 5.5 is better. There's some areas where open source is better.”
Pereyra: Harvey queries cost up to $20 for drafts, $20k for reviews
“We have simple like assistant type queries where you say, you know, draft me a document that a single query can cost 20 dollars. We have like a review product where you can upload a 100,000 contracts and ask the models to review them, and some of those can cos…”