The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 1,341 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 40 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
No new nuclear reactor design has been fueled in 50 years
“There's no new nuclear design that has been fueled in the U S in the last 50 years.”
Radiant's Kaleidos microreactor can become operational within two days on site
“With a reactor like this, that can be quickly moved and doesn't need a lot of infrastructure. You can be operating it in about two days after getting it on a site, which means you can use it for disaster relief.”
Housel: Financial media forecasting success rate is near zero
“The majority of the financial media was based around forecasts and trying to predict what's going to happen next. And the success rate of it was near zero.”
Thiel told Founders Fund to halt investing for six months during COVID
“COVID hits, you know, Peter at Founders Fund basically tells us, you know, go on a six month vacation. We're not going to be deploying any capital.”
Asparouhov: Half of top-10 Midas List VCs are forgotten a decade later
“If you look at, you know, people that land on the, like the top 10 of the Midas list, you know, every year you'll find that about a decade later, like half of that top 10, nobody thinks about it anymore. Like there are people that have just like totally, you k…”
Asparouhov: Khosla is the only equity owner in OpenAI besides Microsoft
“Mattershund being the largest, you know, sort of investor
You know, in SpaceX, Coastal Ventures being the largest investor in Rocket Lab, and then in some ways more recently, you know, the only equity owner in OpenAI other than Microsoft.”
Mavrookas: The US naval fleet is shrinking to roughly 290 ships
“The naval fleet that we have today is actually shrinking. So there's right around 290 ships in our naval fleet.”
Mavrookas: The US Army operates more boats than the Navy
“The Army actually has more boats than the Navy does.”
Ganesh: Saronic bench-tested Marauder's propulsion stack months before ship construction
“And so for Marauder, for example, our 180 foot ship we built all of the internal kind of genset, propulsion stack, bow thruster, all of those components of the ship just in a room before, like probably eight months before the ship was built.”
Ganesh: Fully unmanned fleets of Marauder-scale vessels have never been deployed
“Getting to the point where you have You know, a fleet of these that are completely unmanned just never been done before.”
Mavrookas: US Navy 30-year shipbuilding plan will cost $1.2 trillion
“There's a 30 year shipbuilding plan in the Navy right now. We talked about going from 290 to 381. Over 30 years. That'll cost 1.2 trillion dollars if we can even execute as a country in the first place on that plan.”
Mavrookas: Saronic announced multi-hundred million dollar Navy contract in December 2025
“We talked about Corsair and the large contract that we announced in December of 25, multi-hundred million dollar contract with the Navy.”
Mavrookas: China controls 57% of global shipbuilding capacity
“China has 57% of total global shipbuilding capacity.”
Mavrookas: China completely subsidizes its shipbuilding industry, materials, labor, and financing
“Their entire shipbuilding industry is completely subsidized. Not only direct construction subsidies, but they subsidize the raw materials, they subsidize the labor, and they basically give them free financing for these shipyards.”
Mavrookas: South Korean and Japanese shipbuilders rely on Chinese modules and labor
“Our allies, South Korea and Japan, the next two largest shipbuilders in the world. They're actually on the commercial side. They're actually getting a lot of their modules from China. They're getting a lot of their labor from China.”
Mavrookas: Saronic announced $392M Navy contract in December 2025
“We've announced the three hundred and ninety two million dollar contract with the Navy in December of 2025”
Mavrookas: Saronic's Mirage carries 3,500 pounds with a 2,500-nautical-mile range
“No, it's actually 15 times larger volumetrically. So what that opens up is more range, more payload capacity. So Corsair goes a thousand nautical miles with a thousand pound payload capacity. This will carry 3500 pounds with a 2500 nautical mile range.”
Mendler: Government customers treat ground systems as an afterthought
“For, you know, a government customer segment they tend to procure their spacecraft and their ground systems separately. So space systems were the major focus for a long time. And ground segment was kind of just the afterthought.”
Mendler: Space networking infrastructure hasn't been updated since the 1990s
“With space today, you have like much lower throughput. You generally have challenging reliability requirements. And so like people tend to solve for that in really expensive ways, like creating a ton of diversity of sites and redundancy, which becomes extremel…”
Beck: Rocket Lab bought Virgin Orbit's $100M facility for $16M
“That was the old Virgin Orbit facility, and you know, there was over a hundred million dollars worth of asset in that building, And we managed to buy the whole thing for sixteen million dollars.”
Beck: By mass, the vast majority of Rocket Lab engines are 3D-printed
“At least by mass the vast majority of all of our engines are three D printed and we have some really, really unique processes in here as well.”
Beck: Archimedes engine qualification requires 40 starts and a one-hour burn
“So, you know, the qualification burn time for an Archimedes engine is one hour. So the engine, you know, has to do 40 starts and run for one hour.”
Beck: Archimedes line can produce one rocket engine every eight days
“So what you've been walking up is the Archimedes production line, so this line right now can produce one engine every eight days”
Beck: Rocket Lab produces one Rutherford engine daily; over 930 flown
“There's one engine made and shipped out every day. So, you know, there's over 930 engines that have been to space.”
Beck: Rocket Lab Added Nearly $1B in Backlog in Record Quarter
“Well, I mean, we, you know, pretty much put nearly a billion dollars of backlog you know, in the books had record revenue and you know, a whole bunch of growth everywhere, and acquisitions, and yeah,”
Beck: Communications represents the space industry's largest total addressable market
“What is the biggest TAM in the space industry? It's comms.”
Beck: Rocket Lab Executed Space Force Rapid Call-Up Launch in Under 17 Hours
“We recently did their launch for the Space Force, the rapid call-up launch, and they gave us 24 hours to Call, you know, integrate a satellite into a rocket, push it out to the pad and launch. You know, we did it in 16 hours and 42 minutes.”
Beck: Rocket Lab is prime contractor on two national security programs
“We're prime on two national security programs right now.”
Lamm: Colossal raised $635M total after $400M round oversubscribed
“Yeah, 6:35 total. The last round was supposed to be 200, and it got overscribed to 400.”
Lamm: Invasive species represent a half-trillion-dollar global problem
“So invasive species is like half a trillion dollar problem globally.”
Lamm: Colossal owns the world's largest elephant dataset
“Well, we have the largest data set on elephants in the entire world.”
Lamm: Claude Opus cannot perform ancestral state reconstruction or comparative genomics
“Turns out that like, you know, Opus doesn't do like an ancestral state reconstruction of like a genome and like it doesn't like build comparative genomics models.”
Palo Alto Networks Acquired Over 40 Companies in Eight Years
“We bought four D-plus companies in the last eight years”
Arora Had No Cybersecurity or Public CEO Experience Before Palo Alto
“I'd never done cybersecurity in my life. This is a cybersecurity company. I've never been a public company CEO. This is a public company CEO job. And I'd never sold enterprise. I was a consumer guy.”
Masayoshi Son Was the World's Richest Man for 80 Days
“He's been the richest man in the world, and he's become poor. He's the richest man for eighty-some days. Then he went back being worth nothing.”
AppLovin CEO: Gio Ge built Axon 2 to replace outdated tech
“We had a model that powered our advertising business axon one model, and it was written on outdated machine learning techniques. And so we were looking for a researcher to come in and help us architect the axon two model, which we released. I don't know, proba…”
Foroughi: AppLovin users spend roughly 60 seconds actively playing mini-game ads
“The ads inside games are much more similar to what television is, but specifically for games, You have somewhere around 60 seconds that people sit on an ad, and they're not just sitting there doing nothing, they're playing mini games that we serve them. So the…”
Foroughi: Heavy casual mobile gamers skew female, aged 30 to 50
“And the people who were playing mobile casual games turned out to be a lot of heads of households. It skews slightly female, but it is this sort of 30 to 50 year old age group that's the heavy mobile casual gamer.”
AppLovin generates over $7B EBITDA run rate with 75% cash conversion
“We probably on an EBITDA basis, I think we're over a seven billion dollar run rate, and we generate somewhere around 75% cash off the EBITDA dollar.”
Foroughi: Mobile gaming ad spend cannot support a $1T valuation
“The mobile gaming category is not big enough in terms of user acquisition dollars to support the type of cash flow we need to be valued at a trillion dollars.”
AppLovin dropped 92% post-IPO before rebounding to a $100B valuation
“We dropped 92% in the first 18 months of being public. That, that dream seemed very, very far away, but post-Axon, too, we recovered, and now we're a hundred-billion-dollar company.”
Neros CEO: Millennium One facility is sized for 1M drones annually
“We sized this building to be big enough to do a million drones per year.”
Monroe-Anderson: Latest Bandit Interceptor prototype reaches roughly 300 km/h
“This one goes about 40 kilometers an hour faster, so we're doing about 300 kilometers an hour with this drone right here.”
Monroe-Anderson: PBAS is America's first FPV drone program of record
“So this is the PBAS, Purpose Built a Tradeable System Program. And really like the first program of record for FPV drones in America.”
Drones have expanded Ukraine's front-line 'no man's zone' to 30 kilometers
“And so that, that zone is now like, 30 kilometers wide when it used to be a few kilometers wide.”
Ukraine is projected to consume seven million FPV drones in 2026
“Ukraine is estimated to use seven million FPV drones this year”