The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 1,819 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 120 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Tony Kim: Memory primacy will surpass pure compute in upcoming AI architectures
“Today we're all talking about compute, compute, compute. I think the primacy of memory will become even more important.”
Global tech market cap is $10T software, $20T Mag-7, $30T hardware
“10 trillion in software service internet, 20 trillion in Mag-Seven, 30 trillion in non-Mag-Seven compute chips hardware. That's a, I don't think people would realize that we are that compute hardware centric now. 10, 20, 30. Before AI, BCE era, it was probably…”
Friedberg predicts a chaotic four-way political battle leading up to 2028
“This next wave in the, between now and twenty-twenty-eight, it's gonna be fucking chaos in America. It's gonna be AOC and the socialist wing versus Gavin and the centrist wing versus the kind of Republican mainline versus the Republican ultra-Rike angry nation…”
Desai: Large Paris Enterprise Refuses Public Cloud Over French Sovereignty Rules
“Yesterday I was with a customer, and they said, hey, I just want to tell you, we are not, and it's a large customer based in Paris, we are not going to move our workloads to public cloud. We are going to run it on-prem. Data sovereignty is highest priority. Fr…”
Desai: Coding agents almost always run on proprietary closed models
“Like, for coding agents, ok, you have Cloud Code, you have Codex, there is a Grok build, many options. Cursor has other options available. So what you find is, in those scenarios, you almost always use See or hear close models, not open source models. Propriet…”
Younis: Physical AI will outshine early LLMs over the next 25 years
“I think the physical world and AI going into that is, I think when we look back, I think that's going to be the bigger story. And then look back 25 years from now.”
Patel: Nvidia B200 and B300 server pricing increased prior to production
“I think you've already seen server pricing go up like B 200, B 300 that you're buying now versus last year. The price is significantly higher. We've seen next generation hardware receive price increases before they've even started production. Like, here was th…”
Cook: Enterprise open-source LLM spend dropped from 19% to 11%
“Enterprise LLM spend was 19% open source last year, and it's 11% this year. So it's dropped.”
Liang: AI inference chip deployments will dwarf training by orders of magnitude
“Because at scale, the number of chips deployed for inferencing will be orders of magnitude greater than whatever you're doing for training.”
Liang: Demand will converge on the fastest, most accurate large models
“And so, as the cost of delivering fast goes down, you're going to see most people switch over to the fastest. And this is why I feel like, you know, the premium inference, which is large models, which equals the most accurate. The most accurate models and fast…”
Liang: Infrastructure repatriation to on-premises is actively occurring across enterprises
“Look, repatriation of infrastructure into on-prem is definitely happening, right? You saw this big shift. Everybody's got a cloud called cloud, you know, everything's in the cloud, and 20 years later, you still have companies just starting the migration to the…”
Liang: AI energy, data center, and chip constraints will only worsen
“The hints that you're seeing today with energy constraints, data center constraint, chip availability constraints, cost constraints, all of those things are only getting exacerbated, right?”
Black: 800+ U.S. mom-and-pop harness suppliers are disappearing via PE buyouts
“Versus the 800 plus mom pop shops that exist all over the U.S. That are not just not only growing or not only are they not growing, they're actually going away. And either private equity is buying them, or they're being absorbed into other companies, or anythi…”
Banister: We brought the Uber investment opportunity to Benchmark's Bill Gurley
“We brought Uber to Bill Gurley.”
Miller predicts AI agents will exponentially increase compute demand for inference
“Agents start using inference in an exponential way. The demand curve goes way up for what we, what we're going to need from an inference perspective.”
Mathew: Elon Musk is reserving 30% of the SpaceX IPO for retail
“And so Elon reserving 30% of the SpaceX IPO for retail investors, I think is a really great thing.”
Field: Major AI companies will not become monolithic value-sucking black holes
“There's going to kind of be like a black hole and suck it all up. Which I'm sure that that's not going to be what ends up happening. I think that they're all going to get a lot smarter than that. And I think most don't even want to do that in the first place”
Field: Software companies will thrive despite prevailing market doom narratives
“Right now the narrative seems to be like software is, you know, kaput... But I think that a lot of software will do just fine, or actually even amazing.”
Randle: Portfolio developers spend $3,000 monthly each on Claude Code
“We were talking with developers and companies in our portfolio, and they're like, yeah, like, you know, we have developers that are spending, you know, 3000 dollars per month themselves, like each on cloud code. So it's like, wow, okay, so that's 36,000 dollar…”
Randle: Anthropic revenue and Claude Code surged following coding model breakthroughs
“Which is why you saw Anthropics revenue and why you saw cloud code go so parabolic, because there was a genuine breakthrough in the usability of those models”
Randle: Multiple people I know hold $3B to $4B in Anthropic
“I have friends, like I know several people that have like three to four billion dollars invested into Anthropic.”
Armstrong: Four billion people worldwide are unbrokered without U.S. investment access
“There's actually about four billion people in the world today who are unbrokered. They don't have access to any high-quality U.S. Investments.”
Armstrong: Human-in-the-loop investment data will be a real moat for Coinbase
“And then we can start to build that data set over time, which I think will be a real moat.”
Armstrong: Coinbase saw strong volume on SpaceX pre-IPO perps
“So we launched with SpaceX, A few weeks ago before they went public, and we saw quite a lot of volume on there.”
Armstrong: Coinbase Was First in the US Approved for Crypto Perp Futures
“Getting these approvals in the US we were the first for These perpetual style futures and things like that for crypto and options trading. We're the first company to do that. I don't think any other company in the U S has gotten that yet.”
Armstrong: Code shipped per developer at Coinbase is up 2x year-over-year
“The amount of code being shipped per developer is up about two X year over year.”
Armstrong: Master AI agents will orchestrate sub-agents and pay for services autonomously
“In the future, you're increasingly gonna Talk to one agent. That agent is going to orchestrate hundreds of thousands of other agents. It's going to pay for goods and services with companies that it needs to engage with to get work done on your behalf.”
Armstrong: OpenAI and Anthropic will not enter regulated financial services
“Ah, well, I don't think OpenAI and Anthropic are going to build all the companies. I think they're mostly focused on building foundational models, which are broadly applicable. But for instance, I don't think anyone thinks they're going to get into regulated f…”
Zero percent of 40,000 recent App Store games sustained top 25 rankings
“I believe last year there was 40,000, 40,000 games launched in the App Store, and zero percent of them sustained a top 25 position.”
Slotowicz: Share of people flying private will more than double
“If .1% of them are flying private today, and that doubles, which I think it's going to more than double, to .2, that has like a Huge cataclysmic effect on our industry.”
Slotowicz: Private jet de-icing bills can reach $24,000 per flight
“We've seen it like, a 24,000 dollar de-ice bill in Aspen. So deicing is something that charter companies will typically pass along to the broker, which will pass along to you.”
Pereyra: Harvey is moving traffic to open-source models due to closed-model costs
“There's customers like us, where we do need to move some of our traffic to open source models because it's just becoming super expensive to serve like the largest closed frontier model.”
Harvey reached roughly 960 employees, 2,000 customers, and $300M ARR
“We're around 900 folks 950 people, 960, something like that. We're at around 2000 customers somewhere around three hundred million ARR.”
Switching to cloud agents caused Harvey's usage to double quarter-over-quarter
“And then this year, most recently, the main switch we did is just went over to cloud agents. Like we switched our entire infrastructure to that. And once we did that, usage literally just started, like, doubling quarter over quarter.”
Weinberg: Big law promotes associates lockstep yearly regardless of performance
“You get promoted, like, every single year to exactly the same level as everyone else, despite your performance and you don't really get pushed out, right?”
Weinberg: Harvey has an over 70% win rate in Europe
“Yeah, I mean, I would say in Europe, I think our win rate is, like, over 70% so I don't think it's as much dominant there.”
Weinberg: Vertical AI apps will win by proving token-level ROI
“And I think that vertical companies are gonna have a huge advantage here, where you can start to get to the point where you basically can show every single token and what the ROI was of that token for your particular task in vertical.”
Fishner-Wolfson notes SpaceX's launch business has been profitable for years
“Well, I mean, they were, I mean, they were profitable for a very long time, and the launch business was, I mean, they were doing things that no one in the industry had accomplished, right?”
Fishner-Wolfson says SpaceX equity creates life-changing wealth for shop-floor workers
“They've really shared equity across the entire company, which is incredible. And to your point, they have lots of people on the shop floor who literally make all of the stuff that matters. So the fact that this is life changing for so many people, I really thi…”
Singerman reveals Founders Fund invested over 30% of a fund into Palantir
“You know, we put a lot of money into it. I think we put like 30 something percent of.”
SpaceX's Merlin is the most reliable, highest thrust-to-weight engine ever
“My, probably my proudest development was the Merlin engine, which is currently flying on Falcon nine, the most reliable rocket engine ever developed, and also the highest thrust of weight of any rocket engine ever developed.”
Solar electric propulsion will outperform nuclear on cost for near-Earth missions
“Nuclear electric NEP propulsion is going to be important for going out to the outer planets. If you're staying near earth or even between earth and Mars, probably solar electric is, is, is, is going to outperform it on, on cost and performance just because sol…”
Romo: Helios Reaches GEO in Eight Hours Cheaper Than Falcon Heavy
“Helios gets them to their same, same place they want to go the same day to launch eight hours later. And it's cheaper than a Falcon Heavy, more expensive than Falcon Nine, obviously, because they need to play for, pay for that and the Helios”
Romo: Satellite life extension will never be useful in LEO
“There are some companies that are working on life extension. That's useful in GEO, where satellites are really expensive, and so therefore we should extend their life a little bit. Never gonna be useful in LEO. It's not a, LEO, just replace it. It's easy to ge…”
Feig: Open-source supply chain attacks will surge as AI agents flood pull requests
“Agents are pushing a ton of code. You don't have enough humans to read all that code, and so things are slipping by, things are getting in, and one of them was a vulnerability that gets injected into an open source package that everybody relies on and uses, an…”
Reses: Square nearly delayed its Bitcoin launch over SEC accounting disputes
“And so we almost got held up that first quarterly earnings period because we couldn't get accountants in the SEC to agree that we were accounting it correctly and then actually get it in the numbers in order to launch the product.”