why aren't all 15 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Opinion
Ramaswamy: Tech companies in the AI era face binary trillion-dollar-or-bust outcomes
“This is a moment where It feels very much like a company has only two outcomes. It's either is going to become a trillion dollar behemoth or disappear without a trace.”
Opinion
Ramaswamy: No Company Has Any Business Feeling Confident Navigating AI Era
“I will never say that we are like, you know, confident about getting through the AI era because no company has any business being confident about getting through the AI era.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Ramaswamy: Seat-based SaaS models will struggle against cheaper AI competitors
“I think it's more of, if somebody is very heavy in a seat-based licensing model, And someone else shows up that, you know, has a better product and is also cheaper. That's a very dangerous combination. I think those are the companies that are going to struggle…”
Assertion Supported
Tunguz: In Q1 2024, Ethereum was world's most profitable software entity
“Ethereum in the first quarter of 24 produced on a percentage basis is the most profitable software company in the world. And on a aggregate dollars basis, six largest producer of cash, it's worth seven snowflakes put together. It's three hundred fifty billion …”
Insight
Ramaswamy: Labor-heavy and hourly billing businesses will struggle against AI agents
“If there are a set of companies, for example, that rely heavily on basically people power. They charge by the hour. They charge a lot of money. They make a lot of money. And now you're confronted with a technology like coding agents that can literally get jobs…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Ramaswamy: AI agents will generate massive amounts of telemetry data
“And we are headed into a world of agents that are going to be spewing out even more telemetry information about are they working well or are they not working well. Lots of complicated pieces interacting with each other.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Ramaswamy: Slootman Urged Snowflake Board to Appoint Him CEO Immediately
“He went to the board and basically said, if we are going to bet on this guy, we just bet on this guy. No, no halfway.”
Disclosure
Lin: Airbnb, DoorDash, Snowflake, and Square drove Sequoia's $43B distribution
“Airbnb, DoorDash, Unity, Snowflake I'm sure I'm missing a few others. Mongo, Square.”
Opinion
Ramaswamy: Coding Agents Can Massively Accelerate Data Ingestion and Transformation
“That's something that I'm really excited about because I think that coding agents Can massively accelerate this very painful process of bringing in data, stitching it together, and moving it from raw to consumable insights.”
Insight
Ramaswamy: Software Deployment Centers on Coding Agents, Not Web UIs
“At the beginning of last year, if you ever wanted a product to get deployed, you needed to have a perfect web UI that would walk people through how to configure something, help them with mistakes. You'd have to write long manuals for how you go about configuri…”
Assertion Partly supported
Randle: Snowflake pre-IPO round turned $500M into $2.5B in four years
“The Snowflake pre-IPO round over a four-year period ended up you know, it was like, five hundred million turned into, like, two and a half billion.”
Assertion Supported
Ramaswamy: Snowflake was valued at over $100B with under $1B revenue
“At some point we were valued at more than a hundred billion dollars, making less than a billion dollars of revenue.”
Disclosure
Public Nvidia and Snowflake positions informed Altimeter's private CoreWeave investments
“All of the private sort of, you know, investment in stuff that was going on in 2022 informed, you know, our public investment into NVIDIA and our public investment in NVIDIA helped inform our private investment into CoreWeave and our, you know, relationship wi…”
Assertion Supported
Oltmann: Snowflake Spends More on Sales and Marketing Than on R&D
“Snowflake, where they're spending
More in sales and marketing than actually spending in research and development.”
Disclosure
Ramaswamy: Snowflake Subleased Its Office to Keep Costs Down
“It is a nice office, but I'm always very quick to point out that we subleased it. It's not as expensive as it looks.”