why aren't all 23 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Tenev: Prediction markets will disrupt insurance by cheapening fire and hurricane hedging
“You can trade and hedge fire risk. You can hedge hurricane risk. And if you think about the process of like insuring yourself against a fire or a hurricane, It can be very expensive and it's cumbersome. You have to talk to a broker on the phone and the contrac…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Abraham: Public's incoming account transfers primarily come from legacy incumbent brokerages
“Actually if you look at where people ACAT accounts from, You know, where they like consolidate brokerage accounts from for us. It's Schwab, Fidelity, E-Trade, Vanguard, and then Merrill and Robinhood. So, so we are much more competing with the incumbents than …”
Disclosure
Tenev reveals Robinhood's plan for 24/7 stock trading and DeFi lending
“There's like a three phase plan. Tokenize more stocks and then we have to integrate them into Bitstamp to allow 24 seven trading and also unleash them on DeFi so that you can self custody them and, Do collateralized lending and borrowing and all of that stuff.”
Assertion Supported
Tenev: Robinhood offers over 1,500 tokenized stocks in Europe
“1500 stocks are available for trading in Europe right now.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Tenev: Every consequential IPO candidate consults Robinhood on retail strategy
“This year, basically every consequential company going public is reaching out to us beforehand, asking us, you know, for advice on their retail strategy, how they can engage retail.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Tenev: Most Robinhood revenue could be international and institutional in 10 years
“I think if you look 10 years from now, we see a world where more than half of our revenue could be outside the U.S. And also cut another way, more than half of our revenue could be business and institutional rather than retail.”
Insight
Mansoor: Prediction markets need federal regulation to access Wall Street liquidity
“If we wanted this to be, to get, be on a certain set of scale without regulators, like shutting it down or like having it has to be regulated. And two is like any financial market, you have to be able to work with the brokers, like the Schwab's of the world, t…”
Opinion
Abraham: Going public was one of Robinhood's best strategic decisions
“Even for Robinhood, I think one of the best things I've ever done is to become public. Because you suddenly can build a retail base of followers that own your stock, that will root for you. And I think that today that is a very powerful thing.”
Assertion Partly supported
Tenev: Robinhood holds about $350 billion in assets under custody
“Our business right now, we've got about three hundred fifty billion assets under custody and it's fairly well diversified. You know, the bulk of it is in stocks and we have a little bit of crypto as well.”
Assertion Supported
Tenev: Robinhood cash sweep grew from zero to tens of billions
“The cash sweep program, we call it the high yield offering has gone from basically nothing in 2022 to tens of billions of dollars under custody.”
Insight
Tenev: Prediction markets function as news media sources, not just trading
“One of the big use cases of prediction markets is not just as a trading product, but almost as a news media product, the source of information.”
Insight
Tenev: Single-generation financial companies face 'certain death' as heirs inherit wealth
“A lot of our predecessors get into this trap of being a generational company. And I think that's certain death, right? Because eventually like. Nobody's figured out how to live forever. So eventually their kids are going to inherit the money and, you know, the…”
Assertion Supported
Tenev: Robinhood Has 11 Business Lines Generating Over $100M in Revenue
“And now we have 11 business lines that generate a hundred million in annual revenue or more.”
Assertion Supported
Tenev: Video earnings calls increased Robinhood's live audience to up to 100,000
“So we went from, I think, hundreds of listeners on the old Polycom style earnings to tens of thousands, maybe, maybe even a 100,000 at the last one. So it increased the actual audience of our earnings by multiple orders of magnitude.”
Assertion Supported
Tenev: Robinhood Gold reached 4M subscribers, including 40% of new signups
“Robinhood gold itself, which is a subscription product, we're up to four million gold subscribers, you know, and that's really ramped. Now, now at this .15% of all of our customers thereabouts are Robinhood gold subscribers, and of the customers that join on a…”
Disclosure
Mansoor: Kalshi is in integration discussions with Coinbase and DraftKings
“Our first broker was Robinhood, and, you know, Vlad has been talking about that, and, you know, we just got Webull, and I think, yeah, I mean, I think over time, we're in discussions with all the other ones, like Coinbase, DraftKings, all the others, and vario…”
Assertion Supported
Opendoor was first non-Robinhood company to stream earnings on Robinhood
“Which we were the first company to actually stream our earnings on Robinhood, other than Robinhood themselves.”
Assertion Supported
Tenev: Robinhood was heavily concentrated in Dogecoin and meme stocks in 2021
“Whereas in 2021, Robin was much less diversified. We had higher concentration in, in crypto, particularly Dogecoin. And a lot of the activity was much more concentrated in stocks that were sort of like these meme story stocks.”
Assertion Supported
Tenev: Opendoor was first partner to livestream earnings inside Robinhood app
“So they became the first partner that we actually they not only live stream their earnings and took questions live, but they live streamed it in our app on Robin hood to their retail shareholders.”
Assertion Supported
Tenev: Robinhood's margin book more than doubled over the past year
“And now the margin book is, I mean, it's well more than doubled in the past year.”
Assertion Supported
Tenev: Robinhood allocated ~25% of its 2021 IPO to retail
“And we did it with our IPO, which was the largest retail allocation of an IPO of its size. And we did something like 25% retail. And this was in 20, 21.”
Disclosure
Robinhood launches weather prediction markets on platform
“And you might know Robinhood just added weather prediction markets on the platform.”
Opinion
Josephs: Robinhood defined simplicity in fintech but is becoming too complex
“Robin Hood, I think, they're the poster boys of organic Simplicity for a financial product, but they're probably getting a little bit complex too”