The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

2statements match

0resolved → 2open claims → 0supported → 0contradicted →

why aren't all 2 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 2 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2050

Oetting: A Human Will Be on Mars by 2050

“I would say we'll be on Mars by 20 50. I don't think we would, I mean, colonized maybe is like, depends what that means, but I think there will be a human on Mars by 20 50.”

Drew Oetting Aug 22, 2025 ▶ 55:16 How 8VC Builds Billion-Dollar Companies | Palantir, Addepar, Saronic · Sourcery with Molly O'Shea

Prediction Open · timeframe Oct 2030

Gil: There is an 80% chance humanoid robots walk on Mars first

“Probably quite high, like 80%.”

Elad Gil Oct 20, 2025 ▶ 32:45 Incubating Brain Co: Elad Gil’s AI Bet with Jared Kushner’s Affinity Partners · Sourcery with Molly O'Shea

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The Ledger

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