why aren't all 8 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Prediction Held up
Klein predicts federal AI regulation focused on deepfakes will pass in 2025
“I think there will be some sort of regulation, right? Like, especially around like deep fakes or, you know, video, like it feels like you, if you use AI generated video to, you know, cause pain or harm or reputational harm to someone is that standalone AI regu…”
Prediction Held up
Immerman: Elon Musk has 90%+ odds of becoming world's first trillionaire
“Well, if that market existed today, I think it would probably be like 90% plus odds on Elon. He's like pretty close at this point. Depending on, you know, where his companies go out he's certainly the favorite. So I would definitely bet on him.”
Prediction Held up
SpaceX will complete more than 160 rocket launches in 2025
“I think it will for sure be above one 50, but given those options, above one 60, maybe even one 70.”
Assertion Supported
O'Shea: PJ's viral AI video for Kalshi reached over 100M people
“I was talking to PJ, who creates all those, like, extremely viral AI videos. They did one for Kalshi. It reached, like, over a hundred million people.”
Assertion Supported
O'Shea: Kalshi is valued at $2 billion
“Two billion dollar valuation now.”
Assertion Supported
Mansoor: Kalshi has raised nearly $110M from Sequoia, Schwab, and Kravis
“It's raised close to 110. We, I mean, the main investor, Sequoia, YC Schwab Kravis and I mean, a bunch of others.”
Assertion Supported
Kalshi announces brokerage integration with Webull as second partner
“We actually announced our second broker, Webull, this week, two days ago.”
Assertion Supported
Mansoor: Kalshi acts as a Self-Regulatory Organization with an investigation department
“We are an SRO. Like we are, think of it as like a pseudo extension of government where we have our own set of rules and laws. So we have a whole investigation department. We actually have to do that by law. Like if I don't do this, I'm violating the law.”