The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 8 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Prediction Held up
Klein predicts federal AI regulation focused on deepfakes will pass in 2025
“I think there will be some sort of regulation, right? Like, especially around like deep fakes or, you know, video, like it feels like you, if you use AI generated video to, you know, cause pain or harm or reputational harm to someone is that standalone AI regu…”
Paul Klein Jun 17, 2025 ▶ 28:09 How Browserbase Raised $67.5M to Power AI Agents & Vibe Coders · Sourcery with Molly O'Shea
Prediction Held up
Immerman: Elon Musk has 90%+ odds of becoming world's first trillionaire
“Well, if that market existed today, I think it would probably be like 90% plus odds on Elon. He's like pretty close at this point. Depending on, you know, where his companies go out he's certainly the favorite. So I would definitely bet on him.”
Alex Immerman Mar 13, 2026 ▶ 47:07 Inside a16z Growth: Waymo, Stripe, ElevenLabs, Revolut, Coinbase, Kalshi · Sourcery with Molly O'Shea
Prediction Held up
SpaceX will complete more than 160 rocket launches in 2025
“I think it will for sure be above one 50, but given those options, above one 60, maybe even one 70.”
Eric Crispin May 16, 2025 ▶ 54:09 How Altimeter's $10B AUM Fund Is Investing In Aerospace, Defense, & Hardtech · Sourcery with Molly O'Shea
Assertion Supported
O'Shea: PJ's viral AI video for Kalshi reached over 100M people
“I was talking to PJ, who creates all those, like, extremely viral AI videos. They did one for Kalshi. It reached, like, over a hundred million people.”
Molly O'Shea Dec 27, 2025 ▶ 24:43 Why Lightspeed Bet on xAI, Neuralink, Suno, Granola, & Pika | Michael Mignano · Sourcery with Molly O'Shea
Assertion Supported
O'Shea: Kalshi is valued at $2 billion
“Two billion dollar valuation now.”
Molly O'Shea Jul 3, 2025 ▶ 1:01:43 Why a16z Bet $15 Million on THIS Controversial Startup · Sourcery with Molly O'Shea
Assertion Supported
Mansoor: Kalshi has raised nearly $110M from Sequoia, Schwab, and Kravis
“It's raised close to 110. We, I mean, the main investor, Sequoia, YC Schwab Kravis and I mean, a bunch of others.”
Tarek Mansoor Feb 28, 2025 ▶ 14:36 How Kalshi Built a $2 Billion Prediction Market · Sourcery with Molly O'Shea
Assertion Supported
Kalshi announces brokerage integration with Webull as second partner
“We actually announced our second broker, Webull, this week, two days ago.”
Tarek Mansoor Feb 28, 2025 ▶ 1:29 How Kalshi Built a $2 Billion Prediction Market · Sourcery with Molly O'Shea
Assertion Supported
Mansoor: Kalshi acts as a Self-Regulatory Organization with an investigation department
“We are an SRO. Like we are, think of it as like a pseudo extension of government where we have our own set of rules and laws. So we have a whole investigation department. We actually have to do that by law. Like if I don't do this, I'm violating the law.”
Tarek Mansoor Feb 28, 2025 ▶ 43:08 How Kalshi Built a $2 Billion Prediction Market · Sourcery with Molly O'Shea
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