why aren't all 12 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Assertion Supported
Facebook's early secondary policy inadvertently caused employees to quit to sell stock
“Facebook got big, and it turned out that the company kind of couldn't buy all their shares that were, that people were selling, because the dollar amount just got so big, and the volume got so high, and they basically started telling people, like, if you sell …”
Assertion Partly supported
Barton: Meta GPU recommendation upgrades drove a 15% Instagram usage jump
“And if you look at Instagram time spent, basically it was flat for, I don't know, maybe 18 months to six months ago. And now, you know, you would spend 40 minutes a day, and now that's gone up like 15% in just the past six months, because they basically took t…”
Assertion Partly supported
Peter Thiel won the early Facebook deal by accepting a 10% stake
“A lot of the reason that he originally did that deal was because most people wanted a much higher ownership percentage, and he was okay getting 10% of the company, which obviously was like clearly the right decision, and all you had to do is sort of adjust you…”
Assertion Supported
Fishner-Wolfson: Facebook went public primarily due to 500-shareholder reporting rule
“The major reason why Facebook ended up going public was this 500 shareholder count rule that basically required companies Once they hit a certain shareholder account to publicly report. So it was sort of all the negatives of being a public company with none of…”
Assertion Supported
Rangwalla: Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta multiples compressed as capex grew
“And so if you look at the multiples of Microsoft, of Amazon, of Meta, they've actually all compressed in the last couple of years because their capex is going up.”
Assertion Supported
Immerman: Meta, Salesforce, Deutsche Telekom, and Revolut build on ElevenLabs
“Fast forward to today, the enterprise business has customers like Meta and Salesforce and Deutsche Telekom. They announced Revolut last week. These are massive companies that are building agents on top of their platform.”
Assertion Supported
Agrawal: Meta Generates Double OpenAI's $40B Funding in Annual Operating Cash Flow
“To put that in perspective, OpenAI just raised this massive round, forty billion dollars, and Meta is producing more than twice that in a year.”
Assertion Partly supported
Tunguz: Microsoft, Google, and Meta each deploying $70B–$80B CapEx in 2025
“You have like Microsoft and Google and Meta each deploying something like 70 to eighty billion in capital expenditure, just buying GPUs and building data centers in just next year.”
Assertion Supported
Mathew: Accel bought Facebook secondary shares around a $20B valuation
“We, so we initially invested in Facebook in 2005. We led the series A out of our early stage fund, and we created this growth vehicle in 2008. Miles and I joined in 2008 and 2009, and one of the first opportunities was to buy some Facebook secondary that came …”
Assertion Supported
Barton: AI Infrastructure and Energy Stocks Outperform Mega-Cap AI Winners Like Microsoft and Meta
“AI infrastructure, right? Like the build out of AI, the data centers, the constellation energy, the nuclear, the power needed to, You know, power these GPUs. Those stocks are up, like, 50. And then you would say, you know, well, Microsoft's, like, probably an …”
Assertion Partly supported
Vasavada: Vise scaled to around 150 employees before downsizing
“So we actually scaled the company to like a 150 people or something. It was way more than 70 people, but we hired a lot of managers, like senior executives, people that had come from companies like Meta or Dropbox or others where they'd been used to having 102…”
Assertion Partly supported
Rangwalla: Meta was the largest Mag Seven IPO at $100B
“So the biggest of the Mag-Seven was Meta in 2012, IPO'd around a hundred billion dollars. All of the predecessors had IPO'd in the nineties, you know, in the 10 to fifty billion dollar range, which for that time was very large.”