why aren't all 20 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 1 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Assertion Supported
McGee: Apple Funded Supply Ecosystem That Powered Huawei and Xiaomi
“Apple trained all of their suppliers, and then the suppliers in turn supplied Huawei, Xiaomi, Oppo, Vivo. So that's why Nokia couldn't keep up. It's that China had this amazing ecosystem built for the smartphone industry, all paid for by Apple.”
Prediction Open · timeframe Sep 2028
McGee: Jony Ive and OpenAI's AI Device Will Just Become an iPhone App
“I think it becomes an iPhone app.”
Assertion Supported
McGee: Tim Cook Pledged $275B in Apple Investment to China
“They do their own supply chain study, sort of Apple internally, and realize that they're investing fifty-five billion dollars a year into Chinese factories, and once they've sort of established this, and they realize, like, how much that could mean to local an…”
Opinion
McGee: Apple Cannot Move Manufacturing to India or the US
“I don't think they can move to India. They certainly can't move to the US. Their production plants are basically encircled by Chinese competitors that they themselves created, and they're in a position where they can't make any good moves.”
Opinion
McGee: China Exploited Apple for Tech Transfer, Not Vice Versa
“My narrative is not a book about Apple exploiting China. It's a book about China exploiting Apple, right, and getting technology transfer through these arrangements.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
McGee: Apple Moved to China for Cheap Labor, Not Tech Competence
“What attracted Apple to move to China in the 2000 was not tech competence. It was just abundant labor, the cost of that labor and an industrial policy that was very welcoming to foreign direct investment.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
McGee: China Lacked Tech Capabilities Until Apple Built Them
“The tech capabilities aren't there. Apple builds them.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
McGee: Chinese Competitors, Not Apple Alone, Killed Nokia
“Market share wise, the iPhone has never been more than 20% of the global market. So who has more than 20% that can actually take on Nokia? It's the Chinese competitors. They have 55% market share, right? So you couple that with Apple, couple that with Samsung,…”
Assertion Supported
Josephs: Marjorie Taylor Greene bought major tech stocks surrounding tariff announcements
“She started buying the day after they paused it. The day before and the day after, on the eighth and ninth. She bought Apple, she bought Qualcomm, she bought Nvidia, AMD, ASML.”
Assertion Supported
McGee: Apple's China Investment from 2007 to 2025 Exceeds $800B
“If you just sort of took 22% of revenue, which is what fifty five billion was in that year. And just sort of use that as a sort of, you know, back of the envelope math, back to 2007, the birth of the iPhone, and you took it all the way to 2025, you'd get above…”
Insight
Translucent overlays will replace chatbots as AI's future UX
“The chat bot is obviously the wrong interface. What is the correct interface? I think Apple is exploring, like every, every single smart glass company, Apple, like they're exploring the idea of AI integrated in your life. And what this looks like for them is l…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Wright: Developers will build on Armada's stack like Apple's iPhone ecosystem
“And I think it will kind of evolve like the iPhone did with Apple, which is once you start to show what's possible and like the big problems that can be solved now that this infrastructure is at the edge, Suddenly everybody's gonna be popping up. All these dev…”
Assertion Supported
Clark: Five of the ten most valuable companies are hardware companies
“Even right now, five to 10 most valuable companies in the world are hardware companies. Apple, Nvidia, Broadcom, Tesla, TSMC.”
What-if
McGee: Apple Would Have Gone Bankrupt Without Outsourcing Manufacturing
“You can't really blame them at all for adopting the outsourcing model, because without it, they would be bankrupt. I mean, the book begins after a pretty fun prologue. They're days away from bankruptcy. And it's because they're building everything themselves.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
McGee: Apple and Nokia Employees Regularly Crossed into Each Other's Factory Lines
“Like that's not supposed to be the case, but I would talk to Apple people who'd been to the Nokia line. I would talk to Nokia people who'd been to the Apple line. Like that's not supposed to happen. And yet it comes up all the time in anecdotes.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Ritter: Voice and Hardware Modalities Will Open Whole New Software Categories Like Mobile
“And I think one of the things we believe is there's going to be a whole new, if the mobile device was something that opened up a whole new category of software for mobile devices, we've got devices companies like Bland that may open it up for voice in unique n…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Coogan: Online backlash over Apple's iPad ad will not affect sales
“Like the stock didn't move, you know, it's like, it's not, it is, isn't like a real thing. Like, I don't think it'll affect sales.”
Insight
Banister: Using Apple products is outsourcing trust, not mindless conformity
“Sheep have to follow something, because if you think about it, you're outsourcing your trust to someone else. And if you think about Apple, we all use the iPhone. Does that make us sheep? You know or are we trusting Apple and an entrepreneur to create an exper…”
Disclosure
Bry: Key Apple turnaround engineering executives are Skydio investors and advisors
“A lot of the engineering executives and leadership team that was in place there have become investors or advisors or mentors for us.”
Disclosure
Laffont: Early Coatue models wrongly predicted iPhone prices declining five percent
“And in fact, the number one thing that we got wrong in our analysis of Apple in the early days is we had the price of the phone declining five percent in five years, right? Because that's kind of what you did as an analyst. You had to put declining ASPs. And i…”