The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 29 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Assertion Supported
Luckey: Anduril beat Boeing, Northrop, and Lockheed for USAF contract
“So we were competing against Boeing, Northrop Grumman, Lockheed Martin, and in the end, Andrel beat all of them.”
Palmer Luckey Dec 22, 2025 ▶ 2:37 Palmer Luckey on UFOs, Anduril, Invisibility Tech, & Moon Wars · Sourcery with Molly O'Shea
Assertion Supported
Luckey: Anduril beat Boeing, Lockheed, and Northrop for fighter contract
“We were competing against Boeing, Northrop Grumman, Lockheed Martin, and in the end, Andrew beat all of them, which was really really gratifying to, you know, go from starting this company to going toe to toe with the guys who are legends of the fighter commun…”
Palmer Luckey Dec 15, 2025 ▶ 24:08 Inside Anduril: Exclusive HQ Tour w/ Palmer Luckey, Brian Schimpf, Matt Grimm & Trae Stephens · Sourcery with Molly O'Shea
Assertion Partly supported
McCormick: Anduril's early round was crowded at a $100M valuation
“But that, like, early story that, like, nobody wanted to touch it was actually, like, a pretty crowded round at a hundred million dollar valuation.”
Packy McCormick Feb 14, 2025 ▶ 47:04 How Writing Led To Investing In Ramp, Scale AI, Replit, Varda | Packy McCormick, Not Boring · Sourcery with Molly O'Shea
Assertion Supported
Harrison: Anduril is actively working on subterranean warfare technology
“Like several people are working on that, including Anduril, much to the surprise, I don't know if you have heard this story, but there was a story of Palmer talking about subterranean warfare, and the marketing person at Anduril was there, it was like, to the …”
Kyle Harrison Apr 29, 2026 ▶ 51:47 300 Pages on Anduril: Inside Modern Warfare · Sourcery with Molly O'Shea
Assertion Supported
Harrison: Anduril took over Microsoft's $22B IVAS contract for EagleEye
“And then a year ago Microsoft basically admitted defeat to some extent, and the government said, we're going to recompete the contract, and Anduril first as a potential partner to Microsoft, and then eventually took over a twenty-two billion dollar IVAS contra…”
Kyle Harrison Apr 29, 2026 ▶ 35:44 300 Pages on Anduril: Inside Modern Warfare · Sourcery with Molly O'Shea
Assertion Partly supported
Luckey: Fury is the first autonomous fighter procured by US Air Force
“This is the first autonomous fighter that the United States Air Force has ever procured.”
Palmer Luckey Dec 22, 2025 ▶ 2:15 Palmer Luckey on UFOs, Anduril, Invisibility Tech, & Moon Wars · Sourcery with Molly O'Shea
Assertion Partly supported
Luckey: Anduril took Fury from contract to flight in 556 days
“We went from signing a contract with the Air Force to first flight in 556 days. Which is, as far as I know, the fastest new fighter development program since the end of the Korean War.”
Palmer Luckey Dec 22, 2025 ▶ 2:23 Palmer Luckey on UFOs, Anduril, Invisibility Tech, & Moon Wars · Sourcery with Molly O'Shea
Assertion Partly supported
Stephens: Anduril builds autonomous fighter planes near the Wright brothers' site
“In some ways it's like you're starting with the right flyer and then coming back with fully autonomous fighter plans to be built, you know, less than an hour drive. Away from where the Wright brothers were building the first airplane.”
Trae Stephens Dec 18, 2025 ▶ 13:13 Trae Stephens on Anduril’s Origin, Peter Thiel, & Palantir DNA · Sourcery with Molly O'Shea
Prediction Held up
Schimpf: Anduril will produce autonomous fighter jets in months
“We're making autonomous fighter jets. You know, like three years ago, we weren't believable to make autonomous fighter jets. Now we're doing it. And we're going to have them be produced in a production facility in like months from now.”
Brian Schimpf Dec 16, 2025 ▶ 4:17 Anduril CEO Brian Schimpf on $1B+ Revenue & Still Doubling · Sourcery with Molly O'Shea
Assertion Partly supported
Luckey: Fury is the US Air Force's first procured autonomous fighter
“This is the first autonomous fighter that the United States air force has ever procured.”
Palmer Luckey Dec 15, 2025 ▶ 23:46 Inside Anduril: Exclusive HQ Tour w/ Palmer Luckey, Brian Schimpf, Matt Grimm & Trae Stephens · Sourcery with Molly O'Shea
Assertion Supported
Luckey: Anduril took Fury to first flight in 556 days
“We went from signing a contract with the air force to first flight in 556 days. Which is, as far as I know, the fastest new fighter development program since the end of the Korean War.”
Palmer Luckey Dec 15, 2025 ▶ 23:54 Inside Anduril: Exclusive HQ Tour w/ Palmer Luckey, Brian Schimpf, Matt Grimm & Trae Stephens · Sourcery with Molly O'Shea
Assertion Supported
Harrison: Anduril has had products deployed in Ukraine since day one
“Palmer says that Anduril has had products on the ground in Ukraine basically since day one. They were over there pretty quickly, you know, deploying assets and stuff like that.”
Kyle Harrison Apr 29, 2026 ▶ 45:44 300 Pages on Anduril: Inside Modern Warfare · Sourcery with Molly O'Shea
Assertion Partly supported
Grimm: Anduril's Sydney Facility Can Build Dozens of Ghost Sharks Annually
“And now they're currently being manufactured in our Sydney manufacturing facility that just opened. It's about 75,000 square feet and is capable of making dozens of these a year.”
Matt Grimm Dec 17, 2025 ▶ 2:17 Full Anduril R&D Tour: Matt Grimm, Co-Founder & COO · Sourcery with Molly O'Shea
Assertion Supported
Grimm: Anduril is partnered with Palantir on the Army's Titan program
“We're partnered with Palantir on the Titan program for bringing their software onto our kind of hardware for this joint program with the army.”
Matt Grimm Dec 15, 2025 ▶ 36:42 Inside Anduril: Exclusive HQ Tour w/ Palmer Luckey, Brian Schimpf, Matt Grimm & Trae Stephens · Sourcery with Molly O'Shea
Assertion Supported
Grimm: Anduril Sydney factory can produce dozens of Ghost Sharks yearly
“And now they are currently being manufactured in our Sydney manufacturing facility that just opened. It's about 75,000 square feet and is capable of making dozens of these a year.”
Matt Grimm Dec 15, 2025 ▶ 34:04 Inside Anduril: Exclusive HQ Tour w/ Palmer Luckey, Brian Schimpf, Matt Grimm & Trae Stephens · Sourcery with Molly O'Shea
Assertion Contradicted
Clark: Anduril won a defense program of record within two years
“They, I think, won a program of record, which are the very big budget line item contracts in the National Defense Authorization Act within two years. Fastest timeline since the Korean War.”
Philip Clark Nov 24, 2025 ▶ 25:57 Inside Thrive Capital: Investing in OpenAI, Wiz, Cursor, Nudge, Physical Intelligence · Sourcery with Molly O'Shea
Prediction Held up
Agrawal: At least one of Klarna, Discord, Databricks, Cerebras, Anduril will IPO this year
“I think at least one of them will go public this year.”
Apoorv Agrawal Aug 27, 2025 ▶ 56:30 Understanding OpenAI’s $500B Valuation · Sourcery with Molly O'Shea
Assertion Supported
McCormick: Anduril hit $28B valuation after doubling revenue
“Mandel just raised it a two X step up again, and they're at twenty eight billion and They're not that far off now. They're like a quarter of the way to the big defense prime's kind of market caps and continuing to grow really fast and like what doubled revenue…”
Packy McCormick Feb 14, 2025 ▶ 27:55 How Writing Led To Investing In Ramp, Scale AI, Replit, Varda | Packy McCormick, Not Boring · Sourcery with Molly O'Shea
Assertion Partly supported
Anduril's first pitch deck promised making billions by saving the government billions
“In their very first pitch deck, he said, we are going to make billions of dollars by saving the government tens of billions of dollars of revenue and of costs.”
Kyle Harrison Apr 29, 2026 ▶ 6:35 300 Pages on Anduril: Inside Modern Warfare · Sourcery with Molly O'Shea
Assertion Partly supported
Harrison: Anduril's first Sentry Tower customer was a private ranch owner
“And like their first customer, if I remember correctly, it wasn't even the government. It was a private like ranch owner who wanted to monitor because there was like drug traffickers coming across his land.”
Kyle Harrison Apr 29, 2026 ▶ 29:36 300 Pages on Anduril: Inside Modern Warfare · Sourcery with Molly O'Shea
Assertion Supported
Harrison: Anduril's first prototype was an autonomous firefighting tank
“Their first product they ever built and prototyped was? It was called Century, but it wasn't the tower. It was a autonomous firefighting tank that would roll into a forest fire and could deploy, like, fire suppression”
Kyle Harrison Apr 29, 2026 ▶ 37:03 300 Pages on Anduril: Inside Modern Warfare · Sourcery with Molly O'Shea
Assertion Supported
Stephens: Defense Secretary Hegseth and senior DoD leadership visited Anduril
“So, not only, you know, the secretary, but also his entire senior leadership was here, and so being able to interact with Under Secretary Duffy, Under Secretary Michael General Counsel you know, it was a really cool opportunity, not only for, You know, Andrew'…”
Trae Stephens Dec 18, 2025 ▶ 3:37 Trae Stephens on Anduril’s Origin, Peter Thiel, & Palantir DNA · Sourcery with Molly O'Shea
Assertion Supported
Grimm: Anduril and Palantir are partnering on the U.S. Army Titan program
“Yeah, and we're partnered with Palantir on the Titan program for bringing their software onto our kind of hardware for this joint program with the Army.”
Matt Grimm Dec 17, 2025 ▶ 30:10 Full Anduril R&D Tour: Matt Grimm, Co-Founder & COO · Sourcery with Molly O'Shea
Assertion Partly supported
Grimm: Anduril acquired the IVAS program from a Microsoft spin-out
“So like the whole notion of the IVAS program that we acquired from the Microsoft spin out. It's now called I don't know what they called it now.”
Matt Grimm Dec 17, 2025 ▶ 30:46 Full Anduril R&D Tour: Matt Grimm, Co-Founder & COO · Sourcery with Molly O'Shea
Assertion Supported
Grimm: Anduril now employs 7,000 people across 35 offices globally
“So we're now just about 7000 employees. Got about 34, 35 offices around the world. Depends how you count a little bit of different buildings on the same campus, but thereabouts and are really off to the races scaling, especially on the production side as we la…”
Matt Grimm Dec 17, 2025 ▶ 4:20 Full Anduril R&D Tour: Matt Grimm, Co-Founder & COO · Sourcery with Molly O'Shea
Assertion Contradicted
Schimpf: Anduril built first production Ghost Shark within 30 days of contract
“We have our first Production GoShark already came off the production line, then I think 30 days of signing the production contract.”
Brian Schimpf Dec 16, 2025 ▶ 21:08 Anduril CEO Brian Schimpf on $1B+ Revenue & Still Doubling · Sourcery with Molly O'Shea
Assertion Partly supported
Schimpf: First production Ghost Shark completed within 30 days of contract
“We have our first production GoShark already rank, came off the production line. Then I think, 30 days of signing the production contract.”
Brian Schimpf Dec 15, 2025 ▶ 9:49 Inside Anduril: Exclusive HQ Tour w/ Palmer Luckey, Brian Schimpf, Matt Grimm & Trae Stephens · Sourcery with Molly O'Shea
Assertion Contradicted
Ulevitch: Anduril only releases real product footage without CGI renders or special effects
“Palmer has always said things like, we will never ship renders. Like, we will ship, ship actual videos of our products. So when you see an explosion that, like, an Android, like munition, but like explodes in a video. That's a real explosion. They're not doing…”
David Ulevitch Nov 21, 2025 ▶ 13:55 $635M Exit → $600M Fund: David Ulevitch on Building a16z’s Hottest New Fund · Sourcery with Molly O'Shea
Assertion Supported
Ulevitch: Anduril's first Sentry tower used off-the-shelf parts with advanced software
“Their first century tower was essentially off the shelf parts that they put together with very advanced software.”
David Ulevitch Nov 18, 2025 ▶ 8:11 How Marc Andreessen, Ben Horowitz, & David Ulevitch Started a16z’s American Dynamism Fund · Sourcery with Molly O'Shea
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