why aren't all 94 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Opinion
Stephens: Defense tech shifted from Silicon Valley pariah to peak popularity
“Thinking back to when we started Anvil in 2017 as kind of the pariah of Silicon Valley. It was like not something people were doing, it was incredibly unpopular, and now all of a sudden there's like almost nothing as popular. Maybe AI slop enterprise SaaS comp…”
Disclosure
Stephens: Anduril will open 5M sq ft Arsenal-1 factory in Q1
“In the first quarter of next year, we'll be opening our soon to be five million square foot factory campus called Arsenal One, just outside of Columbus, Ohio which is where we'll start ramping up our collaborative combat aircraft, the autonomous fighter plane …”
Disclosure
Stephens: Founders Fund Culture Supports Partners Co-Founding Companies
“We have no build program, there's no incubation policy or anything like that at Founders Fund, but, you know, Peter started Palantir. I started Anderil. Scott Nolan started General Matter. Delia and Esperohov started Varda, and it's just kind of part of the cu…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Stephens: Anduril hires consumer tech talent to build a defense brand
“We're pulling people from Consumer businesses to build a consumer profile for a defense company, and that's really never been done before.”
Insight
Stephens: Anduril succeeded by targeting a sector with zero VC competitors
“It really does not make sense or would not have made sense for Andrel in 2017 to go and compete in these highly, you know, crowded marketplaces. We went and targeted an area where there were no venture backed players at all. And that gave us an incredible head…”
Insight
Stephens: Selling defense tech requires government relations because end users don't control budgets
“You have to hire a strong government relations team because your customer is not the budget appropriator. Like they're not the same. So you have to be able to work the administration. You have to be able to work Congress. You have to work political appointees …”
Disclosure
Grimm: Anduril Expanding Submarine Production to Quonset, Rhode Island
“And we'll be expanding production for them to our new facility in Quonset, Rhode Island. Where we'll be making both our dive LDs, our smaller submarines, and these big guys for the US market.”
Assertion Partly supported
Grimm: Anduril's Sydney Facility Can Build Dozens of Ghost Sharks Annually
“And now they're currently being manufactured in our Sydney manufacturing facility that just opened. It's about 75,000 square feet and is capable of making dozens of these a year.”
Insight
Grimm: Colocating engineers with machine shops cuts product delivery time and long-term costs
“Having the engineers in the building there have an idea, walk over here, get feedback from fabricators, Build things and have that cycle move very quick. Ultimately gets us to have products to market faster, and then in the long run, cheaper, even if this mach…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Schimpf: Brokers are offering secondary Anduril stock they don't possess
“Everyone is slinging Andurl stock that they don't have.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Schimpf: Anduril will be involved in nearly every aspect of US/allied defense
“Over the next few years, we are going to become
So involved in nearly every aspect of U S and international defense in a way that I think is going to be very positive for us, very positive for the world, but just the sheer scale and breadth that we will be op…”
Assertion Supported
Grimm: Anduril is partnered with Palantir on the Army's Titan program
“We're partnered with Palantir on the Titan program for bringing their software onto our kind of hardware for this joint program with the army.”
Assertion Supported
Grimm: Anduril Sydney factory can produce dozens of Ghost Sharks yearly
“And now they are currently being manufactured in our Sydney manufacturing facility that just opened. It's about 75,000 square feet and is capable of making dozens of these a year.”
Disclosure
Stephens: Anduril opening 5M sq ft Arsenal-1 factory in Q1
“In the first quarter of next year, we'll be opening our soon to be five million square foot factory campus called Arsenal One, just outside of Columbus, Ohio which is where we'll start ramping up our collaborative combat aircraft to the autonomous fighter plan…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Clark: A new wave of hardware companies will tackle physical GDP
“I think we're gonna see a real renaissance of, you know, problems that don't just have to be solved with bits. They can also be solved with atoms as well. You know, sometimes to make a real impact on the world, you actually need to move something in reality. A…”
Assertion Contradicted
Clark: Anduril won a defense program of record within two years
“They, I think, won a program of record, which are the very big budget line item contracts in the National Defense Authorization Act within two years. Fastest timeline since the Korean War.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Ulevitch: a16z likely holds more invested cash in Anduril than any other investor
“I think we, I think, I don't know, but I think we have more cash in Anduril than any other investor.”
Prediction Held up
Agrawal: At least one of Klarna, Discord, Databricks, Cerebras, Anduril will IPO this year
“I think at least one of them will go public this year.”
Insight
Slattery: SpaceX and Anduril diaspora is standardizing hardware data models
“One of the things that's made nominal possible now, or say three years ago, is that there is this crunch happening across all of these disparate industries in terms of the data types that they are using.
Where, 20 years ago, if we were going in and trying to i…”
Insight
McCord: Hardware development is shifting to tight continuous iteration pioneered by SpaceX
“The world is moving from this like type one hardware development where you will work really hard. You'll iterate on a prototype or a design of something, a widget, a machine, and then you will sort of set that design. You'll lock it and you will print manufact…”
Insight
Biannual tender offers allow elite companies like SpaceX to stay private longer
“As we've seen with SpaceX you know, they do biannual tenders where if you're an early stage investor or an employee there's opportunities for liquidity, and they've done that very successfully, and you're gonna continue to see that. Now you're seeing that more…”
Opinion
Garrett: Matt Grimm and Gwynne Shotwell are the industry's best operators
“Matt Grimm from Anderle is one of the best COOs. If not, I would say the best COO in our industry. Gwen Shotwell, one of the best operators, if not the best operator in industry, president of SpaceX.”
Assertion Supported
McCormick: Anduril hit $28B valuation after doubling revenue
“Mandel just raised it a two X step up again, and they're at twenty eight billion and They're not that far off now. They're like a quarter of the way to the big defense prime's kind of market caps and continuing to grow really fast and like what doubled revenue…”
Assertion Partly supported
Anduril's first pitch deck promised making billions by saving the government billions
“In their very first pitch deck, he said, we are going to make billions of dollars by saving the government tens of billions of dollars of revenue and of costs.”
Assertion Partly supported
Harrison: Anduril's first Sentry Tower customer was a private ranch owner
“And like their first customer, if I remember correctly, it wasn't even the government. It was a private like ranch owner who wanted to monitor because there was like drug traffickers coming across his land.”
Assertion Supported
Harrison: Anduril's first prototype was an autonomous firefighting tank
“Their first product they ever built and prototyped was? It was called Century, but it wasn't the tower. It was a autonomous firefighting tank that would roll into a forest fire and could deploy, like, fire suppression”
Disclosure
Jake Paul likes defense tech investing because he enjoys guns and explosions
“I mean, I like defense tech to it because I like guns and explosions. So yeah, I always like say how much I love and roll”
Assertion Supported
Stephens: Defense Secretary Hegseth and senior DoD leadership visited Anduril
“So, not only, you know, the secretary, but also his entire senior leadership was here, and so being able to interact with Under Secretary Duffy, Under Secretary Michael General Counsel you know, it was a really cool opportunity, not only for, You know, Andrew'…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Grimm: Trey Stephens leads investor relations, marketing, and design at Anduril
“Trey obviously leads our investor relations, and he brings a tremendous amount of expertise there, and then this doesn't get appreciated in public enough, but he also runs our marketing and our design teams internally, so he has that kind of Drive behind our p…”
Disclosure
Grimm: Many Anduril Products Feature Jamming and Spoofing Capabilities
“And then a lot of our products get into electronic warfare. So things like jamming and spoofing.”
Assertion Supported
Grimm: Anduril and Palantir are partnering on the U.S. Army Titan program
“Yeah, and we're partnered with Palantir on the Titan program for bringing their software onto our kind of hardware for this joint program with the Army.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Grimm: Palmer Luckey drives product innovation and serves as Anduril's public persona
“Palmer is our founder, and he is the guy who has really a lot of the, like, innovative drive behind what drives us as a company. So new product ideas, new kind of what is in the business is called ConOps. It means, like, how will they use this product? How doe…”
Assertion Partly supported
Grimm: Anduril acquired the IVAS program from a Microsoft spin-out
“So like the whole notion of the IVAS program that we acquired from the Microsoft spin out. It's now called I don't know what they called it now.”
Assertion Supported
Grimm: Anduril now employs 7,000 people across 35 offices globally
“So we're now just about 7000 employees. Got about 34, 35 offices around the world. Depends how you count a little bit of different buildings on the same campus, but thereabouts and are really off to the races scaling, especially on the production side as we la…”
Opinion
Grimm: CEO Brian Schimpf drives global defense strategy and final company decisions
“Brian is really our, like, I would call him, like, our strategic genius, so he is the one who is looking at, if Palmer has an idea for a new product, or any of our engineers really have an idea for a new product, he's the one who kind of sees the chessboard th…”
Assertion Contradicted
Schimpf: Anduril built first production Ghost Shark within 30 days of contract
“We have our first
Production GoShark already came off the production line, then I think 30 days of signing the production contract.”
Disclosure
Schimpf: Anduril split Ghost Shark development 50-50 with Australia
“We went and pitched them on this idea of you could build these extra large autonomous underwater vehicles.
They can build them fast, and we did this model of splitting the development fifty-fifty.”
Assertion Partly supported
Schimpf: First production Ghost Shark completed within 30 days of contract
“We have our first production GoShark already rank, came off the production line. Then I think, 30 days of signing the production contract.”
Assertion Contradicted
Ulevitch: Anduril only releases real product footage without CGI renders or special effects
“Palmer has always said things like, we will never ship renders. Like, we will ship, ship actual videos of our products. So when you see an explosion that, like, an Android, like munition, but like explodes in a video. That's a real explosion. They're not doing…”
Assertion Supported
Ulevitch: Anduril's first Sentry tower used off-the-shelf parts with advanced software
“Their first century tower was essentially off the shelf parts that they put together with very advanced software.”
Disclosure
Ulevitch: a16z and General Catalyst split Anduril's Series B
“And this was their Series B. And when I went down there, I met Catherine Boyle, who was at a rival firm at General Catalyst and she thought she was going to do the Series B. And so the way we met was we ended up having to split the Series B which Anderil sort …”
Disclosure
Garrett: SpaceX and Anduril are among 137 Ventures' largest positions
“Obviously I'm still going to be extremely bullish for just the opportunity within aerospace and defense for, you know some of our largest positions like SpaceX and Andrew.”
Disclosure
Altimeter made its first investment in Anduril in fall 2023
“In, in fall of 20, 23, we made our first investment.”
Disclosure
Anduril is Altimeter Capital's biggest bet by position size
“Biggest bet right now in terms of position size is Andrel.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Five of Ramp's first 50 employees came from the Contrary network
“I think five of the first 50 employees at ramp came from contrary, a lot of the people at retool, a lot of the people and roll.”
Disclosure
Luckey: Anduril ground old printing presses out of HQ floor without rebuilding
“You can see where we cut all of their machines out of the floor even, so, you know, we didn't actually rebuild the floor, we just went in with a grinder and cut out all of their machines.”