Prediction Not checkable as stated
Jeff Morris Jr. predicts 40%+ of non-institutional VCs will fail to raise
“Non-institutional venture funds. I think the majority of them call it, I think that 40% number is, would be on the lower end of people who I think won't be raising additional funds in, in the next cycle.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Deep vertical software will survive displacement by AI large language models
“If you get within these like deep vertical workflows and very industry specific software will persist and ultimately it's hard to compete with if you're just trying to use large language models or code generators to try and compete. Like I think, I still think…”
Assertion Supported
Josh Wolfe predicts 30% to 50% of VC firms will shut down
“Josh Wolf at Lux Capital wrote his quarterly letter and he predicted that 30 to 50% of venture firms would cease to exist.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
LPs no longer accept TVPI multiples and strictly demand DPI
“No longer do you walk into a pitch meeting and show your multiple and invested capital and, or even like TVPI, like you have to like, just show DPI and be really clear what that number is.”
Insight
Post-2023 emerging VC managers hold a distinct advantage over older vintages
“There are emerging managers who are coming to market with new funds, so call it Like a 20, 23 plus emerging manager who I think has the benefit of not getting caught up in what was, what's been a really challenging market cycle. And so if you're just starting …”
Insight
Roger Ehrenberg: Emerging managers graduate after returning 1x DPI on all capital
“I've heard like, I think it was Roger Enberg defined it as any fund that's returned one X DPI on all capital they've raised to date. And so you stop Being in an emerging manager, when you actually return every single dollar you've raised, you distribute back t…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Large VC platforms are freezing hiring and seeing investors depart
“A lot of the larger venture platforms are, they're not hiring huge amounts of investors right now. And in fact, a lot of folks are leaving those platforms.”
Assertion Supported
Social Capital previously attempted and failed to merge with Kleiner Perkins
“There's one point where social capital tried to join Kleiner Perkins for a variety of reasons that didn't work. Mamoon ended up joining Kleiner and is now managing the fund.”
Disclosure
A major multi-stage VC platform attempted to acquire Chapter One
“Call it with them in the past three years. We've been approached by at least one major multi-stage platform to be their seed fund, which for a variety of reasons, we just didn't happen.”
Insight
Acquired GPs surrender up to half their carry to multi-stage VC platforms
“So they're all their fund vehicles, you'd get exposure to, and you'd be giving up some amount of your carry, probably a significant amount, maybe up to like half Your upside to that platform.”
Assertion Supported
Data shows only 17% of venture capital funds survive to Fund IV
“At least like the data I've seen is only 17% of venture funds make it to fund four.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Chapter One is incubating a dating startup expected to make global news
“The second idea is going to be a venture scale company and it's within, without saying too much, it's within the dating category. And so we, again, feel like we're like uniquely qualified to do this. But we think it's, when we announce it, we think this is goi…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Many B2B AI startups are stalling at $1 million to $3 million ARR
“We're seeing a lot of teams get stuck in like the one to three million dollar AR range. And that's harder because now you have customers in revenue and you don't have like the freedom to just completely like walk away from that, those relationships.”
Opinion
SpaceX and Anduril alumni are staying in Los Angeles to build companies
“The space X network, like those people aren't just leaving Los Angeles and moving to the barrier to start the next company. Same with Andrew roller.”
Assertion Supported
Kurzweil, Shen, and Goldberg left top VC platforms to form a partnership
“The recent examples I think are most interesting would be like Ethan from Bessemer, Christina Shen from Andreessen Horwitz, and Mark Goldberg from Index Ventures joining, leaving those large platforms to form like a real partnership, right?”
Disclosure
Chapter One built ten internal software tools and is incubating two startups
“So we're incubating two companies right now which is awesome. And then we build a lot of internal software. And so we, we've built probably like 10 like real products internally that make our lives easier across every category of fund management. So sourcing, …”
