The Calls

⏳ Open 📼 The record

Every prediction date that has already passed, checked against the public record: green held up, red didn't hold up, amber partly held up. Diamonds at the right edge were assessed before their prediction date arrived.

1held up → 0didn’t hold up → 0partly held up →
100%of resolved predictions held up
Everyone Dino Mavrookas (13)Keller Rinaudo Cliffton (4)Alex Immerman (4)Shaun Maguire (3)Pete Shadbolt (3)Doug Bernauer (3)David Ulevitch (3)Ben Lamm (3)Sir Peter Beck (2)Scott Nolan (2)Richard Socher (2)Pedro Franceschi (2)
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The record (1) every resolved claim →

Prediction Held up
Shadbolt: Quantum commercial adoption will precede cryptographic security risks
“You should get like an economic early warning sign essentially where you should see quantum computing companies Doing commercially impactful things, making money, and then eventually scaling towards systems that are big enough to be cryptographically relevant.”
Pete Shadbolt Sep 10, 2025 ▶ 1:22:35 Raising $2 Billion to Become the SpaceX of Quantum | PsiQuantum's Pete Shadbolt · Sourcery with Molly O'Shea
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