The Exchanges

Q think the best companies are not, they're not going out, not because of valuations, right? Um, I think some of them would even be priced higher in the public markets than they were in the private markets. A lot of it is decision on a capital allocation basis, right? They can invest much more in growth and the opportunity while still private and go public at a more opportune time.

A Well, we're seeing this also with companies like Plaid, like Plaid just did a big repricing. They, they repriced down a bunch to hopefully maybe go public. I mean, who's to say, because I don't know. I mean, like everything that you mentioned is very positive. Like, I think even the Collison's, they were on the all in pod and they're like, why, why do we need to go public? We have enough capital. There's plenty of financial institutions that are private. There's actually no need for us to go public. So why don't we, why do we have to do anything? There's not to say like, we won't think about it in the future, but there's nothing that's actually like pressuring them because they have access to capital and they have everything they need to stay private.

AI assessment note: “they have access to capital and they have everything they need to stay private.”

Q do, and that's why I have, like, multiple companies and a foundation and all kinds of other stuff, because in part, I pay other people to do a lot of things for me. What does that mean? I have less money at the end of the day, right? But I made that choice. Do you buy the notion that it's technology, or is it really fundamentally just about your choices?

A No, I think it's absolutely choices. Like, I choose to work really hard because I like working really hard, and I also have this, like, moment in time where there's so much momentum that I am taking opportunity. I do know that I'm making so many sacrifices. I'm making sacrifices to friends. I'm constantly letting them down because I have to work. I'm making sacrifices to my family. I'm not going to certain events. Like they're very close. They all live in Connecticut. I don't do that much. I have sacrifices for my own personal life, like different decisions, not to go on dates, to just cancel things because I just want to work. And like, I'm constantly traveling between cities. I have a selfish reason of like having my apartment in LA because between all this chaos, I like to go back to there and like have a weekend. And then I like to go run around and like do all my interviews, but I know that's a choice. I know for a fact there are some people that do have access to this technology, and they don't care. Like, they just, they just use it for the day-to-day, and then they, you know, have their leisurely activities, but unfortunately, I'm competitive, and I want to succeed, so I'm like, how can I maximize my opportunities right now in this window?

AI assessment note: “No, I think it's absolutely choices. Like, I choose to work really hard”

Q Were you ever thinking of raising a fund?

A Similar to you, like I know what it takes to raise a fund. I've worked at a couple of emerging managers, emerging partners and funds. I don't like that. That is like adding another job on top of the job and it clouds your judgment and it makes you orient the practice and everything that you probably find is like your superpowers and what you enjoy out of investing. And it like, you have to like come in with the mindset of knowing that it is like a multi Dimensional practice, and that, like, that is just one component of it, but it is a very large component, and you always have to be fundraising , you always have to be, like, networking with LPs when you're on the road meeting founders, because it's, like, a cycle that just continues. So, like, in the beginning, like, there are so many people that have reached out to me about starting a fund, or, like, having me as, like, a co-GP, like, something like that, and I just, like, I, I'm focused on this, like, I need the power law for this to win, and then maybe other stuff will come across, but, like, It is, it would be a huge distraction.

AI assessment note: “there are so many people that have reached out... it would be a huge distraction”

Q but like, I, I think like, okay, so the incentives are no longer aligned, right? Same thing with like Obamacare. So the incentives are no longer aligned for doctors and, and So then why go do that? It's also really, really hard. Why not just do stuff on my phone? Doesn't matter. Um, so it'll be interesting to see where we are in like, 2100. It'll be a crazy time.

A Yeah, there's, there's a lot of different things to that. Um, one being AI and media are, like, entirely disrupting jobs, and we'll get into the AI part in 1:02, but to steel man that argument is experts are also becoming a very valuable, um, a very valuable part of the AI journey and, like, hiring them. One of our sponsors is Turing, and so they are in AI research, and they're constantly trying to hire more and more actual experts, It's people with PhDs, people that have gone and learned all these things so that they can verify that the code that they're writing or whatever research they're inputting into whatever model that's going to come out in ChatGPT five is like actually accurate.

AI assessment note: “experts are also becoming a very valuable, um, a very valuable part”

Q Um, is it necessarily a cottage industry? And I think people often forgot that.

A Yeah, it, it certainly is. And, um, unfortunately, unfortunately, Tiger, if you don't want to blame them, I will, but I, I do think that, you know, they were one of the largest pieces of this domino effect, like pumping excess money into a category. Um, lower cost of capital. People, unfortunately, when they're, you know, exposed to a lot of money, don't, don't necessarily, uh, make the wisest decisions, and we saw that play out, and now Uh, what, like two, three years after that, we're still facing the effects, and I don't know, maybe AI accelerates the process of which things shut down or, um, kind of leave the system, but to, to just transition into the AI part of this, so you had some AI predictions in your, uh, your quarterly letter, um, I'll quote you. So you, you said, I anticipate that AI will be overhyped in the short term, one to three years, a period likely marked by struggles in AI infrastructure companies and disappointments in AI deployment, which I call the 90 10 problem. But looking ahead, I believe that in the next decade, AI will dramatically transform a significant portion of knowledge work. So I'd love to get deeper insights on your AI predictions and where that quote came from.

AI assessment note: “Yeah, it, it certainly is. And, um, unfortunately, unfortunately, Tiger”

Q dry and necessary would feel dry and necessary. And so I was like, this just is fun. I want to just, I really believe it. I'm like, I might as well It's like, if you're gonna write a book, you might as well just be in your own voice, as quirky as it is, and that'll make sense to some people. I don't know, did it make sense to you?

A Yeah, that makes, I mean, we were literally just talking about this with X. It's like, we were both sharing how we built really niche but, like, engaged communities on X, and for you, you Were locked up for a little bit, and you couldn't post the way that you'd want to post, and now you're posting the way you want to post, and you're getting 4000 likes on single things. Like, so I guess, like, well, you've experienced that in multiple directions, and I think X is probably one of, not to, like, talk about Elon too much, but I think X is, for me at least, one of the most interesting testing grounds, because you get immediate feedback.

AI assessment note: “Yeah, that makes, I mean, we were literally just talking about this with X.”

Q So the question is, do you, do you want to live in Dubai to save 10% tax? And that's a personal question. If you have billions of dollars, 10% is hundreds of millions, right? So there's that element too. So tell me when you move to Dubai.

A I'm not going to be moving to Dubai. No, I can't handle the heat. No offense to Dubai. I'm sure it's lovely there and people are great, but I will not be moving there. It's too far. Today's episode is sponsored by VCX by Fundrise, the public ticker for private tech, allowing investors of all sizes to invest in venture capital. Learn more at getvcx.com. Some of you may not have heard this yet, but our sponsor Public just launched something called Generated Assets, and it brings AI into investing in a way I've honestly never seen before. Here's how it works. You type in an idea like AI-powered supply chain companies with positive free cash flow, or defense tech companies growing revenue over 25% year over year. Publix AI then dispatches a swarm of agents that scan every single US stock, evaluates them, and instantly builds a custom index around your thesis. What really stands out is how clearly it explains why each stock is included. And before you invest, you can even backtest your idea against the S&P 500, so you're making decisions with real context, not just guessing. And beyond generated assets, public lets you invest in stocks, bonds, options, crypto, all in one place. They'll even give you an uncapped one percent match when you transfer your investments over from another platform. If you want to build a portfolio that actually reflects your thesis, visit public.com slash s…

AI assessment note: “I'm not going to be moving to Dubai. No, I can't handle the heat.”

Q been pretty weak from all private asset costs. It's not specific to venture. And so that, if you sort of project that forward, you might start worrying that your portfolio is too illiquid. And I think that's what's led some people to sort of reduce a bit of their allocation. But I wouldn't say at all that people are Abandoning these asset classes, not even by a long stretch, right?

A Yeah. It is interesting to see. I think AngelList just came out with their private market fund that you can buy into for just 500 dollars today. And then there's some other ones that have popped up. The, uh, closed-end fund going public trend is still going strong. VCX, who is a sponsor of Sorcery, I will disclose, um, they went public and their stock shot up Big names like OpenAI, SpaceX, Anthropic, and so on and so forth, and Roll even. And then, uh, Robinhood also came out with theirs. I think they actually just added OpenAI's to theirs. Um, so how do you feel about, like, would you take the same advice that you have for the other, like, don't rush into it kinds of asset classes with this, or is this different? How do you view these different types of vehicles?

AI assessment note: “so how do you feel about, like, would you take the same advice”

Q few years ago, you know, that basically a lot of these billionaires basically said, we're going to give X percent. I think it's more than 50% of their wealth. There's a pretty strong correlation between those, a lot of those businesses and those CEOs continuing to build a lot of value. After doing that. And I wonder, is there a, is there a causal, is there a causal reason there?

A It's super interesting. Um, I was just listening to, um, Mark Morgan Housel on Dr. Huberman's podcast and he, they were, they were both discussing this as well. Uh, the giving back and all the billionaires donating up to, you know, almost 99% of their wealth back and what the meaning of purpose is and carrying on legacy or, you know, building something for your own. And it's, it's like quite an interesting Question for at least like American capitalism, which I love capitalism, which is great, but, um, running towards just building something for wealth or building something for meeting. Like there's two different things and from founders or people I've heard that have had that are post exit and that just really purely built it for the wealth felt completely empty the day after they sold it. And there was just a really clear bifurcation between the two.

AI assessment note: “building something for wealth or building something for meeting. Like there's two different things”