The Exchanges

Every argument clarity score on this site is built from rows on this page. Each question and answer was assessed with names hidden, the host's own answers included, on four things from 1 to 5: directness (does it answer the question asked), coherence (do the ideas follow), precision (concrete details and clear references), compression (says a lot per word). The weighted mix (30/30/25/15) is the exchange score. A person's published score averages their exchange scores on raw tape only, at least 8 of them, shrunk toward the cohort mean. Full method →

Cyan Banister no published score: only 6 usable exchanges on raw tape, and a fair score needs 8+ · coarse estimate ≈4.0/5 from 6 raw tape exchanges record → ← everyone

Every exchange below was scored with names hidden, four dimensions each from 1 to 5. An exchange's score is 0.30·directness + 0.30·coherence + 0.25·precision + 0.15·compression. The published score averages the raw tape exchange scores and shrinks small samples toward the cohort mean, so five great answers can't beat twenty good ones. Produced feed rows count only toward coarse estimates, never toward a full score.

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Answered raw tape D 5 · C 5 · P 5 · Cm 4 4.85

Q Discovering amazing things. So in terms of investments, how has that led you? I mean, you've invested into SpaceX, Uber, Anderle, Flock Safety. I can name like four, 40 companies maybe right now, but like you've invested in so many companies. How is that and what are some stories?

A I think I like to talk about Niantic Pokemon Go as one of the whys. So the first thing I noticed was that these people were playing this game called Ingress. My friends were playing it. I started noticing other people playing it, but it was a fringe game that not a lot of people were playing. But the behaviors that they were displaying, they were renting helicopters, they were chartering boats, they were ditching their friends at DEF CON in Las Vegas to go out into the desert to claim these invisible things that didn't exist other than in this app. So I started watching it, and I was like, that is remarkable. What could get people to do this? And so I started playing it, and I started learning about the mechanics, and, um, I immersed myself in it, and then I started asking myself, why is Google doing this? So I realized, oh, Google ultimately is a mapping company, They're gathering points of information. They're getting these players to take pictures of it, categorize it, tell them exactly where it is, and to scan that, that, that information. It's basically like free mapping data. And once I realized that, I was like, this is really clever. I wish I could invest in it, but it's Google, so I can't. And the minute that alphabet spun out, I got all of these messages from my friends and they said, you realize they're spinning out Niantic and it's going to become its own entity. An…

AI assessment note: “I think I like to talk about Niantic Pokemon Go as one of the whys.”

Answered raw tape D 4 · C 5 · P 4 · Cm 4 4.30

Q Wow. Hello, Bellwether. I think that's a good lead into why you are so popular right now, Cyan. You are one of the stars of Mafia. So for people who don't know what Mafia is and what Mike Solano put together for Founders Fund, could you explain it and like who is also involved?

A Yeah, so Mafia is a role-playing game that's super simple to play. You can play it without any cards or anything. Um, Mike happens to use An ordinary deck of cards, and you get assigned a role that you're either a townsperson villager, you're a mafia member, you're a sheriff, um, or you're an angel, and angels can, uh, wake up in the night. You all go to sleep at night. Uh, angels can wake up at the night, and they can actually try to see or save somebody, so they can save themselves or another person, and if you watch the show, you'll see that it alternates, like they can only save themselves once every other turn of the night, and then the sheriff, um, The sheriff can see who is mafia and who isn't during the night, and then the mafia kills a villager or a townsperson or a sheriff or an angel at night, and when you wake up, it's a big game of kind of witch hunt. At first, you just have to kill somebody, and you have to coalesce on, on who to kill, and then afterwards, it's a game of deception and lying, you know, because you've got to gather information from your team Well, they're not even teammates, but from the people around you to try to figure out, ah, who's the killer? And you go off of my game that I like to play is the metagame. I like listening to sounds. I like watching people's eye movements, whether or not they protest too much, um, who they seem to be bonding wit…

AI assessment note: “Mafia is a role-playing game that's super simple to play.”

Answered raw tape D 4 · C 5 · P 4 · Cm 3 4.15

Q I mean, I think, like, change is probably the hardest part and is, like, a biggest limiter, um, uh, or blocker to, like, be, like, limiting yourself, right? Like, so, um, what kind of, like, changes do people need to make? Is it, like, a daily, like, reminder? Is it, like, self-manifestations? Like, what kind of, Like, what kind of move is that? Is it who you surround yourself with?

A Yeah, I prescribe a lot of things depending on the person. So I do a lot of coaching in this regard, and I've started teaching classes. And, um, if you watch my ex feed, um, from time to time, I post, like, openings for Awake Academy one-on-one. And, you know, it depends on where you are in life and where you are with, uh, a meditation practice. And so usually I start people with a meditation practice of five minutes a day. Because I say, could you meditate for five minutes a day? And usually they're like, yeah, I could make time for that. And I'm like, well, let's figure out where to fit it in. Um, usually I recommend if they drive to do it before they start the car. So you go out to the car, you sit there for five minutes and you just, you don't try to silence your mind. I think a lot of people who think that meditation is, I have to have perfect silence and I have to clear all my thoughts. And I think that actually causes a lot of people to avoid it. Because they have all of this chatter and noise going on, and it confuses them, and then they punish themselves for not being able to shut it down. That's not what meditation is about. Meditation is about noticing the thoughts, and noticing that they're going by like clouds, and then noticing that you're noticing, so who is that person? So if you are not your thoughts, then who are you, is where I would start. And so if people w…

AI assessment note: “usually I start people with a meditation practice of five minutes a day.”

Answered raw tape D 4 · C 4 · P 3 · Cm 4 3.75

Q capital right now on both the startup side and fundings, and then also on the emerging manager side too. So to break this down, I'd love to start up. I'd love to start on the startup side. So what are, I, I'd love to get your perspective on this. What are you seeing, hearing, and what do you believe to be true or not true about this cynicism out there?

A I think some of the cynicism has to do with the lack of exits. You know, um, we've been hearing this over and over again, but I think that's about to change, potentially, where M&A, um, might open up in public markets. You know, you might see more companies go public than has been in the past, last four years. But, uh, I think, you know, LPs are increasingly, um, uncomfortable with the lack of capital returned. And so that's why you see, um, sort of the cynicism for new emerging fund managers, and it's not that new emerging fund managers are bad, it's just that the ecosystem has not It's slowed down where people are not, you know, the liquidity is not coming as fast as it ought to.

AI assessment note: “I think some of the cynicism has to do with the lack of exits.”

Answered raw tape D 3 · C 4 · P 4 · Cm 3 3.55

Q What do you think the best strategy is through all of it?

A Oh gosh, it really depends on the dynamics of everyone there. Um, I don't recommend that this game be played with couples or best friends or people who, Uh, because I've actually seen people get into real fights because of Mafia and Werewolf, which is a game that's very similar. Um, and it, it goes beyond the game. They're just like, I can't believe you would say that about me. I can't believe you'd call me a liar. I was telling you the truth. Can't you tell? And, and so I recommend you don't do that. But for me, I mean, I have, I lied. I have played the game before, but I played it mostly as Werewolf. I think I've only played Mafia once before, and that was in Hawaii. Um, and, but I'm not super used to the terminology, so I figured it was believable if I was just like, I don't really know how to play this game. And they did buy it, and that helped. But that's only gonna work, you know, a few times.

AI assessment note: “I figured it was believable if I was just like, I don't really know”

Partly raw tape D 2 · C 4 · P 3 · Cm 3 3.00

Q from multiple people all over the country. Um, so you're definitely doing a really good job there creating unique atmospheres for people to get to know one another. But I want to know, like, what is the recipe for this event? Like, how do you construct these unique dinners or, um, Community building efforts where people can be themselves and not just talk about what's ever happening in AI land.

A Yeah, I'll happily take this one. When Lee and I founded the firm, we sat down and talked about all of the things in our careers so far that we didn't like and that what we wanted to be different about. And one of the things I hate more than anything, and Lee does too, is going to these network events Where you're walking around with your drink and you come up with someone and you're like, and it's the same question over and over again, which is, what are you excited about? And I remember Peter Thiel once told me, he said, when someone says, what are you excited about? It's because they don't know what to be excited about themselves. And so they're fishing you to try to get excited about something, um, because they lack it in their lives. And, and so they're doing, they're outsourcing their work to you. And so, he asked, what are you upset about? You know, what keeps you up at night? What worries you? And so we, and I really like that, and I really like that about, um, About Peter and one of the things I learned from him, but we started thinking about, okay, is there a way that we can build our firm that's values driven, but also have events that when we invite people to them, it really aligns with our values, but it's also super fun. So fun that you don't even feel like you're working. But at the same time, when everybody leaves this event, they're like, what the heck did I ju…

AI assessment note: “we started thinking about, okay, is there a way that we can build our firm”

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