Mar 13, 2026 · 48m · sourcery
Inside a16z Growth: Waymo, Stripe, ElevenLabs, Revolut, Coinbase, Kalshi · Sourcery with Molly O'Shea
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In this episode of Sourcery, host Molly O'Shea interviews Alex Immerman, General Partner at Andreessen Horowitz (a16z) Growth, exploring late-stage venture investing, AI economics, and scaling strategies. Immerman shares detailed case studies on portfolio leaders like Waymo, ElevenLabs, Kalshi, and Flock Safety while breaking down key growth benchmarks and market dynamics.
How this conversation actually went
Every chapter scored 0–10 on four independent dynamics. Hover any point for the reasoning behind the score. Molly holds 19.8% of the talking time here. How this is scored →
Molly as informed peer 4.2 Guest teaching 5.2 Guest disagreement 1.4 Molly pushing back 1.7
speaking balance: gold is Molly, purple is the guest (3 minute bins)
Sharpest disagreement ▶ 26:57 Alex firmly counters gambling classification of Kalshi
Alex rejects the premise that sports prediction markets are equivalent to sports betting, sharply distinguishing Kalshi's fee-taking exchange model from house-skewed sportsbooks.
Hardest push from Molly ▶ 26:32 Molly challenges prediction markets devolving into gamblingMolly presses Alex directly on whether prediction markets primarily focused on elections and sports events have simply morphed into gambling platforms.
Biggest teaching moment ▶ 3:45 Alex details private AI vs public cloud revenue divergenceAlex demonstrates market mastery by citing that fewer than five public software companies are growing over 30% while OpenAI and Anthropic added revenue equal to half the public cloud sector.
Molly holds their own ▶ 30:09 Molly questions fintech business model convergenceMolly sharply challenges the long-term defensibility of major fintechs by pointing out that Robinhood, Coinbase, and Revolut are increasingly converging on the exact same product suites.
the scores for every segment, with the reasoning behind each
| Chapter | Topic | Molly as informed peer | Guest teaching | Guest disagreement | Molly pushing back | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Welcome and Managing the a16z Growth Portfolio | 3 | 5 | 1 | 1 | Molly opens by listing a16z growth investments and asks how the portfolio is managed. Alex explains their early-stage follow-on pipeline and shares surprising crime-solving metrics on Flock Safety. | |
| Private vs Public Markets, AI Gross Margins & Benchmarks | 4 | 6 | 1 | 1 | Molly asks about differences between private and public markets and shifts in revenue milestones. Alex breaks down stark data comparing private AI breakout growth to the slowing public cloud software sector. | |
| Deep Dive into Waymo, Autonomous Vehicles & Humanoid Robotics | 5 | 6 | 1 | 2 | Molly asks detailed underwriting and comparison questions regarding Waymo's full stack LiDAR vs Tesla's camera-only FSD approach. Alex outlines three distinct underwriting scenarios and details Waymo's rapid market share acquisition in San Francisco. | |
| Sponsor Segment: Brex and Turing | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | Following sponsor reads, Molly briefly asks whether Alex fears AI agents taking over systems. Alex dismisses existential panic, emphasizing rapid deployment speeds and personal assistant workflows. | |
| Deep Dive into ElevenLabs and Voice AI Infrastructure | 4 | 5 | 1 | 1 | Molly inquires about ElevenLabs' massive funding round and why they broke out over rival voice AI models. Alex breaks down their dual consumer and enterprise platform strategy. | |
| Deep Dive into Kalshi and Prediction Markets | 6 | 6 | 3 | 4 | Molly presses Alex on whether prediction markets shifting toward sports betting makes them functionally gambling. Alex firmly pushes back, contrasting Kalshi's regulated peer-to-peer exchange structure with traditional sportsbooks. | |
| The Fintech Renaissance: Revolut, Coinbase & Stablecoins | 6 | 6 | 2 | 3 | Molly asks how investors navigate platform convergence across major fintechs like Coinbase, Robinhood, and Revolut. Alex details Revolut's transactional payment margin structure and high ROE compared to interest-dependent neobanks. | |
| Growth Investing Metrics, Retention & R&D Allocation | 4 | 5 | 1 | 1 | Molly prompts Alex on the quantitative slope and retention metrics a16z requires for growth rounds. Alex explains how gross and net dollar retention drive R&D reinvestment over sales and marketing spend. | |
| Mid-Roll Sponsor Segment: VCX, Public & Deel | 3 | 5 | 1 | 1 | Following mid-roll sponsor reads, Molly asks about typical bottlenecks for scaling companies. Alex details the necessity of multi-product 'second acts' using EliseAI's module attach rates as evidence. | |
| Venture Market Dynamics, Stripe Tenders & Marc Andreessen Lore | 4 | 6 | 1 | 2 | Molly notes a16z capturing 18% of US venture capital and asks about liquidity via Stripe tenders. Alex explains shifting power-law outcome sizes over 15 years and cites Glengarry Glen Ross to explain backing category leaders. | |
| Favorite Business Books & a16z's Media & Marketing Machine | 5 | 4 | 2 | 2 | Molly banters with Alex about a16z books and ghostwriting before discussing a16z's content engine and potential first trillionaires. Alex humorously denies ghostwriting rumors and outlines why Larry Page is a dark horse trillionaire candidate. |
Statements from this episode (28)
Immerman: Roughly 50% of a16z Growth investments are early-stage portfolio follow-ons
“Of the companies you named and of our portfolio at large, roughly 50% Of our investments, our follow-ons to our early stage winners companies breaking out.”
Immerman: a16z early-stage team met 90% of companies a16z Growth backs
“90% of the companies we're investing in out of our growth fund, our early stage team has met.”
Immerman: Flock Safety solves over 2,800 cases daily, 15% of US crime
“Flock solves over 2800 cases every day.
That's 15% of reported crime in America.”
Immerman: Under five public software and fintech companies grow 30%+
“If you were to scan public internet software fintech, there are fewer than five percent, sorry, there are fewer than five companies growing north of 30%.
This year.”
Immerman: OpenAI and Anthropic added revenue equal to half of public cloud
“If you look at OpenAI and Anthropic alone, the two, those two companies added as much revenue last year as half of the public cloud universe, excluding the mag seven.”
Immerman: a16z joined Waymo's $16B Series D at $126B valuation
“Waymo raised sixteen billion dollars at a hundred twenty six billion dollar valuation. It was their Series D. We're really excited to be a major participant there. We've participated in all four of their external rounds dating back to the Series A.”
Immerman: Waymo reached 25% San Francisco market share, beating Lyft
“They, in San Francisco, it got to 25% market share really quickly with very few cars. You know, Surpassing Lyft and being a formidable competitor to Uber.”
Immerman: Waymo is scaling to over 20 new cities this year
“They're scaling to over 20 new cities this year.”
Immerman: Ride hailing represents under 1% of US vehicle miles
“Ride hailing in that aggregate large number I just shared, is less than one percent of vehicle miles in the US.”
Immerman: Rideshare market will grow by at least 10x in coming years
“And so the ride share market is going to grow by You know, at least in order of magnitude in the coming years.”
Immerman: Waymo remains significantly ahead of Tesla on safety metrics
“But when you take a step back and compare the data, whether it's disengagements, reported accidents in Austin, Waymo is still significantly ahead today, and we feel really good about their position.”
Immerman: Meta, Salesforce, Deutsche Telekom, and Revolut build on ElevenLabs
“Fast forward to today, the enterprise business has customers like Meta and Salesforce and Deutsche Telekom. They announced Revolut last week. These are massive companies that are building agents on top of their platform.”
Immerman: Kalshi is number one across users, revenue, and volume
“And today they're number one across users, revenue, volume, any metric that, that anyone would care about.”
Immerman: A lot of Kalshi's volume comes from sports
“And today a lot of Cal shoes volume does come from sports. There's no hiding that.”
Immerman: Revolut has 10 revenue streams, none exceeding 20% of total
“So Revolut has, you know, 10 different revenue streams. Not a single one is more than 20% of revenue, so incredibly diversified as we mentioned.”
Immerman: Revolut has reached 40% ROE, surpassing Nubank
“And that has resulted in Revolut already having, like, 40% ROEs, which are higher than a new bank.”
Immerman: Stablecoins will increasingly power worker payouts in coming years
“I think like you fast forward you know, a few more years and we're going to see increasingly payouts to all types of workers coming that way. And eventually Consumers having it.”
Immerman: a16z Growth portfolio companies average over 100% growth
“Our portfolio is growing, you know, on average over a hundred percent.”
O'Shea: a16z raised 18% of all US venture dollars last year
“A-sixteen Z raised 18% of all US venture dollars last year.”
Immerman: 150 companies hit $100M revenue annually today versus 15 in 2009
“Today, we believe that's like 10 x larger, like a 150 every year.”
Immerman: Top 1% venture outcome will reach $40B in 8-10 years
“Every five years, that, that top one percent outcome doubles. And so, if you were to fast forward another, you know, eight to 10 years, That's forty billion is the top one percent outcome.”
Immerman: Stripe runs annual employee tenders to stay competitive while private
“They have run a really efficient process with their tenders. They've done it annually to deliver liquidity to their employees and stay competitive in the market.”
Immerman: a16z Growth team has operated with only 7 to 12 people
“So the growth team has always been small. We ranged from like seven to 12 people. When we started, we were seven, including Marc.”
Immerman: a16z can almost guarantee viral launches for founders
“We can go to an early stage founder and almost guarantee That their launch is going to go viral.”
Immerman: Elon Musk has 90%+ odds of becoming world's first trillionaire
“Well, if that market existed today, I think it would probably be like 90% plus odds on Elon. He's like pretty close at this point. Depending on, you know, where his companies go out he's certainly the favorite. So I would definitely bet on him.”
Immerman: Larry Page will be the world's second trillionaire
“Would probably put my money today on Larry Page quarter trillion. Google, Google, or should say Alphabet has like woken up. They own, you know, close to a hundred percent of search. They own a hundred percent of deep mind. They own like mid teens percentage of…”