The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 9 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Choi: Software valuation multiples have zero correlation with revenue size
“Here we have a regression that charts AOR multiples today versus the implied AOR scale of the most recently reported quarter of a 139 different software companies. And I want to draw your attention to the r squared value of this regression... And so we see her…”
Choi: Revenue CAGR has zero correlation with post-IPO share appreciation
“Now this charts the same y-axis, but on the x-axis you'll see revenue growth compounded annually. And so the R spread here, you can see it's much more scattered, is 0.03.”
Choi: Public markets will likely value SaaS IPOs at 7x–11x ARR
“And you'll see that companies are trading between this seven times to 10, 11 times range, with the exception of 20 20 and 21. And this is also important to note because irrespective of what private markets are valuing you at today, public markets are still lik…”
Choi: Share price appreciation strongly correlates with cumulative dollar growth
“On the left here, we see a regression that charts the share price depreciation from IPO to today versus how much revenue has increased in dollar amounts from IPO to today. And you'll see here that the R spread value is, 0.74, which is fight high and applying a…”
Choi: Average ARR for SaaS IPOs has jumped to $300M–$500M
“Here we have the average ARR scale of companies at IPO quarter, and you'll see the tremendous increase from 2009, 2010, where companies were going public between 50 to a hundred million of ARR, And in today's markets, more recently, companies are in well over …”
Choi: HubSpot generated $11B in market cap from post-IPO new products
“And they had added essentially eleven billion dollars of additional market cap value that wouldn't exist if it weren't for these new products.”
Meritech: SaaS companies average 10 years from founding to IPO
“First, we see that on average, it takes companies about 10 years from founding to IPO. Here we have the average years to IPO hovering around that 10 year mark over this 15 year period.”
Choi: Klaviyo went public at $7.6B valuation on just $16M burn
“Klaviyo is a leading market automation company, and they went public in September of last year with a market cap of 7.6 billion dollars. There are around seven hundred million of ARR and are trading today and at 10 times ARR multiple. And one thing that's uniq…”
Choi: Rubrik IPO'd at $5.6B Valuation After Burning Over $700M
“This is a data management and security software platform that went public in April with a market cap of 5.6 billion dollars. They were around eight hundred million of ARR and are now trading at seven times ARR multiple. And you'll notice that difference in cas…”