The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 9 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 1 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Pepper: Growth VCs can no longer underwrite to $10B outcomes
“And I think it's going to fundamentally change how people think about entry points because no longer can you assume, you know, ten billion to generate a venture return in most cases.”
Pepper: Venture investing activity will be dramatically higher by late 2023
“I think the public, I think it's a great time to buy a lot of these names in the public markets. That's not investment advice, but given that, I think we're going to be in a much better place next year. And then in terms of our activity levels, I think dramati…”
Pepper: SaaS Multiples Will Settle Higher Than May 2022 Levels Within 24 Months
“I happen to be one of the bulls and I'm not calling the bottom. That's not our job to pick the bottom, but my guess is that we do settle out at multiples higher than today over the next. 24 months. And we get back to that being normal as opposed to normal bein…”
Pepper: 2022-2023 VC vintages will outperform 2020-2021
“Probably the best fun vintages are going to be 20, 22, 23, as opposed to 20, 21.”
Pepper: Most 2021-Funded Companies Should Eventually Grow into Valuations
“I think over time, given their large balance sheets, most of those companies should be able to grow into their valuation over time.”
Pepper: SaaS Valuations Will Fall in 2-4 Quarters as Founders Need Capital
“I think it's going to take two, three, four quarters. For those companies that raised in early or mid 20, 21 to need to come back and there will come a time where they need capital and the pendulum will swing from, you know, purely power on the part of founder…”
Pepper: LPs will allocate less to VC and prioritize re-ups
“Those marks are going to be tough in the next couple of quarters. So yes, I think like all of us, LPs are reassessing the environment, trying to figure out what to do, And my guess is that they'll do what many others are doing, which is retrench a bit. And my …”