why aren't all 45 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Prediction Held up
Deeter: Canva and other private cloud companies will cross $1B ARR
“There are private cloud companies that now have line of sight, or in Canva's case and a few others, will be crossing the billion dollar ARR mark while still private.”
Prediction Held up
Deeter: Cloud will become dominant delivery model for all software in 3 years
“And we do believe that within the next three years, cloud will become the dominant delivery model for all of software in this enabled cloud first world.”
Assertion Supported
Deeter: The 2020 market crash is the fastest 30% decline in history
“This by contrast is the fastest 30% plus decline by the broad market in history. I mean, this beats the great depression, the oh, wait, the dot com, et cetera.”
Prediction Held up
Deeter: Public cloud industry will cross $1T market cap in a few years
“And if you extrapolate this, take 10, take a third off the growth rate, 10 full points of CAGR, we still have a line of sight to crossing that trillion dollar milestone in the next few years as an industry.”
Prediction Held up
Deeter: Stripe and Adyen will be multi-billion dollar successors
“Companies like Stripe and Adyen will certainly be multi-billion dollar successors.”
Assertion Supported
Deeter: Cloud unicorns grew 74% year-over-year at over one per week
“And so, in just a one year time period, there was a 74% increase in cloud unicorns, and almost, ah, a new unicorn in the industry is being created per day right now, and in the cloud industry, it was at a rate of more than one per week.”
Assertion Supported
Deeter: Telehealth visits experienced a 300x increase during COVID-19
“This is an example of telehealth that has skyrocketed given the cloud And COVID combination, a 300 X increase in telehealth visits.”
Assertion Supported
Deeter: WCLD was the top-performing NASDAQ ETF across all industries in 2020
“This basket propelled WCLD to be the top performing ETF on NASDAQ across all industries. In 2020 and the number two tech ETF in the entire US within tech.”
Assertion Supported
Deeter: Salesforce paid record 35x multiple for Slack acquisition
“35 X revenue multiple paid for what is a fantastic business by one of the leaders of cloud with Salesforce really showing that this was the second largest enterprise software acquisition in history after only IBM's purchase a red hat, but also the largest mult…”
Assertion Supported
Deeter: 'Mount SaaS' basket returned 800% over four years vs 330% for FAANG
“If you go back for four years, Mount SaaS had an 800% return
On investment compared to things, 330%.”
Prediction Held up
Deeter: Private market lag will slow venture deal pace
“It will take a while for the private markets to adjust to what we've seen very rapidly happen in the public markets. And I think that's going to impact deal pace as well.”
Assertion Supported
Deeter: Total combined capital into cloud in 2018 doubled the 2015 record
“Fantastic names that in aggregate, when you put together the three ways to buy stocks, public IPOs, private venture capital dollars, and then outright acquisitions, last year was a record in terms of total combined capital by a large multiple. In fact, 2015 wa…”
Assertion Supported
Deeter: Private cloud unicorns outnumber public ones 55 to 44
“Again, for the first time ever, there's more private cloud unicorns at 55 than public cloud unicorns on our index at 44.”
Assertion Supported
Deeter: The five most valuable companies in 2017 were venture-backed tech
“Then for the first time consistently in 2017, all five of the most highly valued companies on the planet were venture backed technology businesses.”
Assertion Supported
Deeter: Over 90% of millennials expect to leave before equity vests
“Over 90% of them don't expect to stay around to see their first chunk of equity vest over the typical four year period.”
Assertion Supported
Deeter: Average public cloud company returned 12x over eight years
“12 x is the return profile if you bought just the average public cloud company.”
Assertion Supported
Deeter: Corporate America spends only a minority of software budget on cloud
“Corporate America still has a minority of their software spend going into cloud.”
Assertion Supported
Deeter: 2021 Forbes Cloud 100 comprised entirely of unicorns for first time
“That group, for the first time in history, was comprised of only unicorns this year.”
Assertion Supported
Deeter: 2021 Forbes Cloud 100 accounts for over $500B in aggregate value
“In the cloud 100 alone, that group comprised on their own, not included in that public market cap graph, almost another, or over another half trillion in market cap.”
Prediction Held up
Deeter: 2021 will break all records for venture dollars invested in cloud
“We will break all records this year in terms of dollars in.”
Assertion Supported
Deeter: Fintech was the fastest-growing segment on the 2021 Cloud 100 list
“The fastest growing segment within our cloud 100 list this year was fintech”
Assertion Partly supported
Deeter: Two of Top Three Global Companies Appointed Cloud Leaders as CEOs
“It's telling that two of the world's top three market cap companies on the planet have both decided to place their cloud leaders in charge of their entire business.”
Assertion Supported
Deeter: Top five cloud companies reached $1T market cap after 70% growth
“And so in aggregate, what you see now in total is one trillion dollars of market cap across these top five companies. And they on average saw a 70% increase in their market cap over the last year, since we came to you in SASTR of 20 20.”
Assertion Supported
Deeter: AWS holds over 30% of a $150B cloud market
“And so Amazon Web Services continues to dominate the top over a 30% market share in what is now a hundred and fifty billion dollar market.”
Assertion Supported
Deeter: 61 pure-play cloud index companies reached $2.2T market cap
“Now in total with the COVID tailwinds, with the ascendancy of the top five that alone are now at a trillion, and with the addition of the other 56 companies, so 61 in total comprising the cloud index today, You have a shocking 2.2 trillion dollars in market ca…”
Assertion Supported
Deeter: Bessemer Cloud Index gained over 12x in a decade
“In total over the last decade, the index is up over 12 x, meaning literally if you invested a thousand dollars in this index, put it in a drawer, And pop back present day, you, you'd have 12,000 dollars.”
Assertion Supported
Deeter: WCLD ETF gained over 100% in a year to top $50 per share
“And as it priced at 25 dollars a share, it has traded up over a hundred percent in the last year at over 50 dollars a share making this one of the top performing ETFs worldwide.”
Assertion Supported
Deeter: Snowflake had the largest software IPO in history
“Snowflake became the single largest IPO in in software history.”
Assertion Supported
Deeter: Public SaaS multiples remain at 8x to 10x revenue after crash
“Even after this pullback, We're still looking at, you know, eight, nine, 10 X multiples in the public markets on revenue.”
Assertion Supported
Deeter: A record 55 private cloud unicorns exist as of 2019
“In total, in fact, 55 private cloud unicorns exist today. The highest in history.”
Assertion Supported
Deeter: Amazon earnings release referenced AWS 78 times versus twice for retail
“78 times in the AWS, ah, AWS was referenced in the Amazon press release and earnings announcement. Twice for retail.”
Assertion Supported
Deeter: Cloud acquisitions exceeded $90B in 2018 as legacy vendors bought in
“If we think back on 2018 alone, over ninety billion dollars of acquisition activity as the legacy vendors tried to buy their way into this space to catch up with the wave that, ah, the innovators have been leading.”
Assertion Supported
Deeter: 44 public cloud companies reach $690B total market cap
“In fact, we sit here today at six hundred and ninety billion dollars among these 44 pure play public cloud companies.”
Assertion Supported
Deeter: Top 100 private cloud companies represent $175B in aggregate value
“And among just the top 100 private cloud companies, there's a hundred and seventy five billion dollars of market cap among the names that you know well.”
Assertion Contradicted
Deeter: December 2018 Was the Worst December in NASDAQ History
“December alone was the single worst December in the entire history of the NASDAQ index.”
Assertion Supported
Deeter: January 2019 Was the Best January for Market Indices in 30 Years
“January was the single best January in 30 years for the market indices.”
Assertion Supported
Deeter: Elastic and Pivotal broke open-source IPO records in 2018
“On the IPO side, we had Pivotal, which was the largest open source IPO in history, and then they were trumped a few months later by Elastic, which became the largest. So the two records set in the public landscape in the same year.”
Assertion Supported
Deeter: Bessemer Cloud Index gained over 450% in seven years
“The Bessemer Cloud Index, which tracks the 54 pure play public cloud companies, is up over 450% in the seven years we've been tracking this.”
Assertion Partly supported
Deeter: Private venture unicorns grew from zero to over 200 in a decade
“And if you think a decade ago, there were zero private venture-backed unicorns, these billion-dollar companies. Now, today, there are over 200.”
Assertion Supported
Deeter: Cloud 100 list features 37 private cloud companies valued over $1B
“The mean is over a billion, and there are 37 companies over a billion dollars market cap on that list today.”
Assertion Supported
Deeter: Over half of Shopify's revenue comes from payments
“Now, for those of you that look at the public filings of Shopify another proud Bessemer alumni portfolio company, they're trading at ten billion dollars plus. And over half of their revenue today is from this emerging category of payments.”
Assertion Supported
Deeter: Over 40% of Public Cloud Value Has Been Acquired
“Over 40% of the value of the public cloud companies has been acquired away, strip out Salesforce at the top there, and well over 50% has been acquired.”
Assertion Partly supported
Deeter: Voice accounts for 20% of Google and 25% of Bing searches
“20% of searches in the Google, ah, engine are through voice today. 25% for Microsoft Bing.”
Assertion Partly supported
Deeter: LinkedIn was the first private unicorn; early cloud lacked public comps
“When we, when you were starting EchoSign, I was doing Trigo, there wasn't a single public cloud company. In fact, in 2000, it took a couple of years before the first emerged and the first private unicorn was LinkedIn and like, Oh wait, so all new land.”
Assertion Supported
Deeter: There were zero private cloud unicorns in 2008
“Which probably shouldn't be a surprise, because in the entire cloud industry, there were exactly zero private cloud unicorns. In fact, in the history of the entire cloud industry, there had been exactly zero. Just 10 years ago.”