The Ledger
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Choi: Software valuation multiples have zero correlation with revenue size
“Here we have a regression that charts AOR multiples today versus the implied AOR scale of the most recently reported quarter of a 139 different software companies. And I want to draw your attention to the r squared value of this regression... And so we see her…”
Clayton: Down-round IPOs do not matter long-term with durable growth
“And the down round IPO is actually irrelevant over the long term. You've seen companies like SPS Commerce that are up almost 20 X from when they went public because they grew durably over time.”
Choi: Revenue CAGR has zero correlation with post-IPO share appreciation
“Now this charts the same y-axis, but on the x-axis you'll see revenue growth compounded annually. And so the R spread here, you can see it's much more scattered, is 0.03.”
Clayton: SaaS companies cannot expect public valuations above 10x ARR today
“And regardless of private market valuation, at least in today's interest rate environment, companies cannot expect to be worth more than 10 times ARR.”
Clayton: Modern SaaS IPOs demand $400M ARR and 30% growth
“We think that you need to be at least four hundred million of ARR. You have to be growing at least 30% a year. You're probably going to be worth three to five billion dollars and trade anywhere from that eight to 12 X range.”
Lemkin: Growth is twice as important as profitability for SaaS
“Growth is twice as important as profitability. So track both, but profitability is not the goal.”
Choi: Public markets will likely value SaaS IPOs at 7x–11x ARR
“And you'll see that companies are trading between this seven times to 10, 11 times range, with the exception of 20 20 and 21. And this is also important to note because irrespective of what private markets are valuing you at today, public markets are still lik…”
Choi: Share price appreciation strongly correlates with cumulative dollar growth
“On the left here, we see a regression that charts the share price depreciation from IPO to today versus how much revenue has increased in dollar amounts from IPO to today. And you'll see here that the R spread value is, 0.74, which is fight high and applying a…”
Lemkin: Startup Growth Is Valued Up To 10x More Than Profitability
“For public companies, growth is still worth twice as much as profitability for startups. It's probably four to 10 times.”
Choi: Average ARR for SaaS IPOs has jumped to $300M–$500M
“Here we have the average ARR scale of companies at IPO quarter, and you'll see the tremendous increase from 2009, 2010, where companies were going public between 50 to a hundred million of ARR, And in today's markets, more recently, companies are in well over …”
Meritech: SaaS companies average 10 years from founding to IPO
“First, we see that on average, it takes companies about 10 years from founding to IPO. Here we have the average years to IPO hovering around that 10 year mark over this 15 year period.”
Clayton: Top-quartile SaaS IPOs since 2018 averaged over $400M ARR and 60% growth
“A top four tile company since 2018 was over four hundred million of ARR, growing at almost 60%, worth about seven and a half billion dollars, and as you can see, had very strong metrics, and still took about 10 years for them to get there.”