Jun 26, 2024 · 46m · saastr
Forget the SaaS Gloom and Doom. Just Build. with SaaStr CEO and Founder, Jason Lemkin
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gold bands on the timeline = statements, start to end. Hover to read, click to jump. CC turns on captions
In this SaaStr Europa keynote, SaaStr founder Jason Lemkin breaks down the economic forces reshaping enterprise software, including multiple compression, vendor stack rationalization, and AI budget reallocation. He urges founders to disregard macroeconomic pessimism, maintain product execution, and build resilient organizations positioned for an anticipated 2025 market recovery.
How this conversation actually went
Every chapter scored 0–10 on four independent dynamics. Hover any point for the reasoning behind the score. Jason holds 99.8% of the talking time here. How this is scored →
Jason as informed peer 0.0 Guest teaching 0.0 Guest disagreement 0.0 Jason pushing back 0.0
speaking balance: gold is Jason, purple is the guest (3 minute bins)
Sharpest disagreement ▶ 22:15 No Guest Combativeness
This episode is an uninterrupted keynote presentation to an audience, so there is no guest combativeness or disagreement present.
Hardest push from Jason ▶ 31:00 Pushing Back on Anti-AI Founder SentimentLemkin challenges founders who dismiss AI features as useless, arguing they will lose enterprise deals without parity.
Biggest teaching moment ▶ 22:20 Audience Seed Valuation CorrectionAn audience member calls out a seed valuation number from the floor during Lemkin's discussion of Zendesk's early valuation.
Jason holds their own ▶ 10:20 Deconstructing Deal Contraction ExcusesLemkin demonstrates industry expertise by dismantling the claim that enterprise SaaS deal compression is primarily driven by tech layoffs.
the scores for every segment, with the reasoning behind each
| Chapter | Topic | Jason as informed peer | Guest teaching | Guest disagreement | Jason pushing back | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keynote Opening and the Philosophy of Just Build | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | This segment is a solo keynote monologue by Jason Lemkin outlining the philosophy of continuing to build through downturns. With no interactive guest exchange, all interactive dynamic scores are set to zero. | |
| The SaaS Divide: B2B2C Resilience Versus B2B Vendor Rationalization | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Lemkin delivers a presentation comparing B2B2C resilience against pure B2B enterprise software rationalization. There is no conversational dialogue or pushback with a guest. | |
| Enterprise Headwinds: Public Earnings Shock and Pipeline Friction | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Lemkin analyzes recent enterprise software earnings reports, deal contraction, and pipeline multiples in a solo keynote format. No guest interaction or pushback occurs. | |
| The AI Landscape: Hyperscaler Growth and the Decacorn Hunt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Lemkin examines the venture landscape, the hunt for decacorns, and speculative AI valuations. Minor audience acknowledgments do not constitute interactive debate. | |
| Repurposed Budgets and the Critical Need for AI Parity | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Lemkin continues his keynote presentation explaining how AI budgets are repurposed from existing SaaS budgets and why feature parity is mandatory. It remains an uninterrupted monologue. | |
| Capital Constraints: Multiples Compression, IPO Stagnation, and PE Distress | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Lemkin outlines multiple compression, low IPO volume, and private equity debt pressures in a monologue address. No interactive debate takes place. | |
| Venture Fundability Realities and the Long-Term SaaS Playbook | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Lemkin concludes his keynote presentation reviewing seed startup fundability datasets and the long-term playbook for SaaS founders. No guest interaction is present. |
Statements from this episode (24)
Lemkin: SaaS founders rejecting AI will lose deals 80% of the time
“Maybe you're right in 20, 24. Maybe, maybe, maybe you are right, but you're going to lose that deal eight times out of 10 when you're Compare. It looks a lot like you goes in and gets everyone excited about efficiency for AI.”
Lemkin: Netskope is growing over 30% at $500M in revenue
“Netscope, which is sure that are just put out a press release yesterday, they're growing over 30% at five hundred million in revenue.”
Lemkin: Canva is growing over 40% at $2.3B in revenue
“Canva just said they're growing over 40% at 2.3 billion in revenue at their user conference the other day.”
Lemkin: LinkedIn panicked and sold cheaply to Microsoft for $26B
“LinkedIn panicked and sold to Microsoft really cheap. 20, I think, 25, twenty-six billion, but it was a profitable rocket ship with no need to sell.”
Lemkin: Software companies cannot cut their way to growth
“You can't cut your way to growth. Cutting does not produce growth”
Lemkin: Restaurant startup Owner surpasses $20M revenue, growing 10% monthly
“I invested in a company that's adjacent to Toast called Owner, which is like marketing for restaurants. They're, they've crossed twenty million. They're growing almost 10% a month every month.”
Lemkin: Wiz seems to be the fastest-growing software startup ever
“Wiz is, seems to be the fastest growing software startup ever in today's markets.”
Lemkin: UiPath added zero net new customers in the previous quarter
“Growth is still good, but UiPath had no net new customers last quarter. No net new customers.”
Lemkin: Tech industry hiring still far outpaces tech layoffs
“There are far more hiring going on in tech even today than layoffs.”
Lemkin predicts classic B2B software demand will rebound in 2025
“If 20, 23 was when everything rebounded. On these fast cycles, maybe the simplistic way to look at it is 20, 25 has got to be when buy, when it gets easier for a lot of folks in classic B to B. That's the belief.”
Lemkin: ZoomInfo's net revenue retention for tech customers dropped to 85%
“ZoomInfo's tech NRR is about 85% now. About 85%. Down from triple digits to 85%.”
Lemkin: Cloud hyperscaler spending growth is entirely driven by AI
“Look at how much acceleration the spend has been on Azure and Google cloud. This is all AI. This is all AI.”
Lemkin: VCs now require $10B exits rather than $1B exits
“Funds are structured for this funds are looking for ten billion dollar exits. It actually puts a lot of pressure on folks that are doing pretty good. They'll just, if you, if a V, the only way a VC can make money is not just if you exit for a billion, which is…”
Lemkin: Veeva raised only $3M and is worth $35B
“Viva is a vertical SaaS company. Only raised about three million and is worth thirty-five billion today.”
Lemkin: Big companies fund AI by cutting existing software budgets
“There is no magical AI line budget at big companies. There is no magical thing. Stuff is being cut to fund these initiatives”
Lemkin: Gorgias has 16,000 Shopify customers, approaching $100M revenue
“I'm on the board of a company called gorgeous. Which is the largest contact center in e-commerce. And they've got about 16,000 Shopify customers coming up on a hundred million in revenue.”
Lemkin: Median public SaaS company trades at 6x ARR on BVP Cloud Index
“This is the BVP cloud index. You can track it on Bessemer sites or other places. The median public SaaS company is trading at six X error, the median.”
Lemkin: SaaS market will not ease until multiples reflate to 8x ARR
“I think it won't get easier for us until this is about eight X until we see 20 to 30% reflation in multiples.”
Lemkin: Blended VC rolling internal rates of return are negative
“Everyone is full of shit in venture on Twitter. Oh, I'm all my investments are so great. I'm such a genius. I own point. Oh, one percent of this unicorn. I made so much money, but the real IRRs, when you blend it all together, they're negative.”
Lemkin: Growth funds will take a decade to resolve fallen unicorns
“It is stress a little bit on early stage funds, but it's huge stress on growth funds, which did lots of unicorns, hundreds of unicorns. And it's going to take them a decade to figure out what to do with fallen unicorns.”
Lemkin: Vista Equity Partners is writing its $3.5B Pluralsight investment to zero
“Vista, which is one of the two or three biggest folks that buy SaaS companies, Vista, Tomo Bravo, a few others, they bought Pluralsight. They're writing the entire 3.5 billion investment to zero.”
Lemkin: All my billion-dollar investment exits have come from PE firms
“All of my billion dollar exits as an investor have come to PE firms.”