The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 18 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 1 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Mashrabov: No startup besides OpenAI and Anthropic can win in foundation models
“I think it's very difficult for me to see Any other company than OpenAI and Anthropic are being competitive in the foundational model space. It's just very, very difficult for a startup to be a foundation model company. I don't want to say anything bad about c…”
Granet: Bland AI avoids OpenAI and Anthropic, building proprietary stack
“We don't use open AI, Anthropic, anybody else. So we're entirely built from the ground up.”
Kuruvilla: AI startups are one OpenAI or Anthropic release away from dying
“I think that time or that phase of products probably is gone right now because now you have to find your relevancy every day. You know, you're like one deployment of open AI or like one anthropic release away from dying. So you cannot sit back at the laurels o…”
Englander: Foundation models are not an existential risk to vertical AI startups
“Our risk is, as I mentioned just then, is like, we may not have product market fit tomorrow morning. And that's not based on, like, OpenAI or Anthropical. It's just based on the speed that Verticalize application is shipping great products. So really, our only…”
Mashrabov: OpenAI is subsidizing media generation to win consumer AI
“Frankly speaking, is OpenAI clearly want to take these markets. There is no doubt about that. OpenAI want to be a winner. They are willing to subsidize rich generations.”
Sherman: AI platforms like ChatGPT will inevitably introduce pay-to-play ads
“As soon as your brand and you recognize that their transaction has moved into the AI funnel and that a consumer can go to ChatGPT and say, Hey, I'm training for a marathon and 10 minutes later can buy a pair of sneakers within that same conversation on ChatGPT…”
Maples: Avoided many AI investments due to competitor and OpenAI risks
“For that reason, I haven't made a lot of AI investments. And so I've seen a lot of AI ideas where I'm like, I totally see the inflection. I can totally see why people are going to love this product. I just don't know why there won't be 10 just like it, or I do…”
Kuveke: Mira Murati raising $2B seed at a $10B valuation
“Mira, the other co-founder of OpenAI is raising a two billion dollar seed round at a ten billion dollar valuation. She's not offering the rules of the engagement are that she has more, more board votes than everyone combined on the board plus one.”
d'Sa: B2B telephony AI market is several times larger than ChatGPT Voice
“If you take all of those different pockets of use cases together, It's like several, several times bigger than like chat GPT voice mode. So yeah, open AI is like a big customer and like has a lot of traffic, but at the same time, like the pie is a lot bigger t…”
d'Sa: OpenAI secretly built Voice Mode on LiveKit via a personal Gmail
“I get an email from open AI and it's like, Hey, so we signed up for a live kit cloud in secret with a personal Gmail address three weeks ago, and we've built this voice interface, like on top of you guys. And now we're like fans and we want to like talk commer…”
Mashrabov: OpenAI free-to-paid conversion ratio is 5% to 6%
“When I look at like free to paid ratio for open AI, even outside of India and Southeast Asia, it is, we still talk about five, six percent. It's very similar to any B to C SaaS really.”
Frosst: RLHF data efficiency surprised everyone in AI except OpenAI
“I think that caught pretty much everybody, but the people in OpenAI by surprise was that you can have a relatively small number of examples from people, fine tune the model on that, and then it's a lot easier to work with.”
Products without moats inevitably plateau, even with strong go-to-market strategies
“There is a limit to which you can scale a product, which doesn't have a moat. GTM can be a moat, but product also has to have a moat. Otherwise, It can scale to a level, then it flattens out.”
Halliday: ChatGPT will select specialized tools over general web scraping for queries
“If Chaggy BT wants to know about congestion in Barcelona or the best restaurant to go in Copenhagen, they are going to start to form an opinion of which tool is the best for the job to answer that, which can give The model, the best quality response and allow …”
Haroun: Acquired legal services provider served OpenAI, Stripe, and Citibank
“It's a legal services company. They have legal professionals who are acting as an extension of the in-house teams of OpenAI, Stripe, Citibank.”
Lingelbach: OpenAI and Anthropic are expanding into vertical application providers
“It seems like OpenAI and, like, Anthropic especially are, like, Pushing out of just being model providers into being vertical providers.”
Dearsley: GPT-4o expanded voice AI awareness rather than displacing Vapi
“GPT-Foro just, like,
Grew everyone's awareness that voice was important.
It didn't really like displace us by any means.
It just made it more popular.”
Parekh: Airflow Logged 300M+ Downloads and 80K+ Company Users Including OpenAI
“Airflow has downloaded over three hundred million times last year, and there's 80,000 plus companies using it. And that includes everyone from Siege State Startups to The biggest banks in the world to companies like OpenAI and Anthropic that are building incre…”