The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 93 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 4 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Carta Data: Only 4% of SAFE Bridge Startups Reach Series A
“If you took a bridge on a safe or a note after you had already raised price funding, so this is all about priced seeds to price series A, the percentage on the convertible bridges was four percent.”
Carta Data: Only 4% of SAFE/Note Seed Bridges Reach Series A
“The percentage of companies that raised a seed round in twenty-twenty and then have raised some sort of bridge capital since then on a safe or a note. Only four percent of companies that fall into that bucket have gotten to a series A. Four percent versus like…”
Walker: AI foundation model seed startups reach $160M-$200M post-money valuations
“There's always this cohort of mostly candidly AI infrastructure companies that are building foundational models or building like the tech around foundational models, and they are getting valued at Just astronomical numbers. You know, I call it a 160, 170, 182 …”
Walker: Solo Founders Are Not Granting Larger Equity Shares to Early Hires
“What I hope is that these companies, what I haven't seen so far, and what I hope happens, is that these companies that are being built by a solo founder grant equity to their early team in a different way. Like there are just higher levels of equity granted to…”
Walker: Top-quartile seed valuation barely increases Series A graduation rate
“What it showed is that on a percentage of graduation basis, yes, the highest valued companies graduate to Series A little bit more often than the other companies. But it's not a massive difference. It's within a couple percentage points.”
Walker: AI Averted a Prolonged 2000- or 2008-Style Startup Downturn
“We were in route to having what would have happened in 2008 or 2000 Where there was going to be an extended period of decline for startups, but then we had AI.”
Walker: Seed-Strapping Is Great for Businesses but Bad for Venture Returns
“It's not that seed strapping is a bad way to build a business. It's actually a fantastic way to build a business. It's a bad way to get venture returns. And that is the fundamental mismatch between the investor expectations and the founder expectations that I …”
Carta Data: Smallest Seed Rounds Graduate to Series A Less Frequently
“The general gist of it was that if you raise a small seed round, that is less highly correlated with your ability to raise an A round. So it looks to be that the smallest, and there's a bell curve here where, you know, at the smallest seed rounds tend to make …”
Walker: 58% of two-founder startup teams split equity unequally
“Something like 58% of two founder teams split unequally, so not fifty-fifty.”
Walker: Current Series A Rounds Average $14M–$15M at $75M Post-Money
“Like, you're talking 14, fifteen million dollars raised. You're talking seventy-five million or so post-money valuations on that.”
Walker: Seed-to-Series A 12-Month Graduation Rate Has Rebounded to 10%
“You've got the companies that raised about a year ago. So Q one of 20, 25 or so, how many of them have gotten to series A so far? It's something like 10 to 11%, which in a year is actually pretty good. It's much better than it was in 20, 22 or 23, where it was…”
Carta's Walker: Anxiety Around AI Gross Margins Is Overdone
“The debate about margins in this AI world, I think is candidly a little overdone, like pretty early. There's every indication that the economics might continue to change.”
Walker: Over 35% of New Startups on Carta Are Solo-Founded
“36 or 37% of the companies on Carta that joined us this year are solo founded. A lot of those companies will end up not being venture backed. So the venture backed percentage, it's probably more like a quarter maybe.”
Walker: Median Seed Company on Carta Has Four Non-Founder Employees
“We're seeing like the median seed stage company on Carta has four employees, not counting the founders.”
Walker: Many AI startups are quietly being built for early acquisition
“And I think it's, there's a lot of acquisitions happening right now, mostly for AI talent. So I think there's, candidly, I think there's a lot of companies quietly, not saying it, that are quietly being built to get acquired earlier.”
Walker: AI/ML engineer pay rose up to 40% in 18 months
“Actually, AI ML engineers over the last 18 months on Carta, their pay packages have risen between 25 and 40%.”
Walker: SAFEs Dominate All Startup Fundraising Rounds Under $4 Million
“Like safes are the dominant way to get money into a business. Now, anything under four million dollars is dominated by safes. Where it used to be, you'd start on safes and then you'd raise a seed, but if you're raising two and a half, three, four million dolla…”
Walker: Lowest-quartile seed startups reach Series A half as often
“The companies that didn't had a big, big change were the lowest valued companies. So the lowest quartile, if you were raising a seed round and it's in the zero to call it 25th percentile of valuation, so on the very low end, those companies made it to series A…”
Walker: Twice as many founders take seed secondaries compared to 2021 peak
“I'll say upfront, the number of founders taking secondary after their seed round is twice as high this year as it was in 2021, which was the highest we'd ever seen.”
Walker: Bridged startups now graduate to the next stage at higher rates
“Weirdly, in the last year, there's been a couple quarters where the companies that took a bridge More of them have made it to the next stage and the companies who haven't taken a bridge yet.”
Walker: Only 20% of seed startups reach Series A within two years
“The latest data has it at 20% of companies got from seed to A in two years or less.”
Walker: Series A startup headcount dropped from 25 to 16-17 employees
“Series A, 20, 21, you had 25 people working for the company, full-time equity holding employees working for the company. Now you probably have 17. 16.”
Walker: Almost no seed-stage secondary transactions include startup employees
“While we're seeing, call it close to double the amount of founders taking something out at seed, like almost none of them have employee participation.”
Walker: Seed deal volume will decline in 2025 despite higher invested capital
“When you look at the data, yes, there's more capital being invested, but the number of rounds at seed stage for us this year is actually going to go down.”
Varma: Carta, Shareworks, and Global Shares provide poor user experiences
“Other platforms, including, you know, share works from Morgan Stanley. Global shares from JP Morgan. Carter's got theirs. Like they're all good. There's just not a great experience. And I think that great experience is what's resonated with our customers.”
Walker: Carta will likely stop reporting on AI as a separate category by 2027
“I am pretty sure that in the next two years, I'm just gonna stop reporting on AI.”
Walker: AI seed-stage valuations are 40% to 50% higher than non-AI
“We're showing a chart right now that shows seed stage valuations for AI companies being 40 to 50% higher.”
Walker: Series A pre-money valuations sit between $45M and $50M
“Series A, we're seeing the same dynamic, fewer rounds, but primary valuations are Call it. 45 to fifty million.”
Walker: 90th-Percentile Startup Valuations Only Exist in the Bay Area
“If you're talking about the 90th percentile, Yeah, those basically only exist in the Bay, but if you're talking, you know, from say, 30 or 40th to 75th, you can get that in a lot of places.”
Carta Data: 32% of Priced Bridge Startups Reach Series A
“If you raised on a priced bridge, meaning that your investors who are already on the cap table gave you more money. But they did so in a priced round, which set a new valuation, had actual, you know, lawyers involved, et cetera, a real round. Then the percenta…”
Carta: AI captured 50% of late-stage and 35% of early-stage capital
“So you've got AI in seed in series A, it's probably something like, you know, 30 to 35% of all the capital that we see or saw last year is going to AI companies. But the weird part is if you look late stage, it's actually much higher. So, 50% almost of every d…”
Carta: 2022 Seed-to-Series A Graduation Rate Fell to 16-17%
“And then 20, 22, it was very low. Like even after two years, only about 16, 17% of those companies had got from C to A. Usually that's 30%.”
Walker: 30% of priced rounds raise below prior SAFE cap
“Something like 30% of the time you don't exceed it and you raise on a valuation that's less than the valuation cap of your most recent save.”
Walker: AI SaaS pre-seed valuation caps average $12M–$13M versus $9M–$10M
“So if you look at like, just take SAS versus AI SAS. So like non, non AI versus AI, but in the single SAS enterprise category, you know, on that same valuation cap basis for a pre-seed round, the AI might be, you know, a million on 12, one million on 13. As th…”
Walker: Down rounds dropped from 24% in Q1 to 17% in Q2
“So the share of all rounds on Carta that were down rounds, it peaked at like one out of every four rounds on Carta was a down round, which is obviously not where we want to be, way above historical average. And that really declined from Q one to Q two. So from…”
Walker: Median time between Seed and Series A expanded to 24-30 months
“In general, though, what we've seen is that the time between a seed and an A is, it used to be the standard of advice was 18 to 24 months. The median is now over 24 months. It's over two years. So it will take longer than you think. That's the number one piece…”
Walker: 42% of Carta Seed Rounds Were Extensions or Bridges
“Of the priced seed rounds that happened on Carta last quarter, 42% of them were actually extensions, or bridges, or seed plus.”
Walker: Startup salaries stayed flat while equity grants declined over 18 months
“Startup salaries have basically remained flat over the last 18 months and startup equity packages are actually down over that same period because the supply and demand dynamic, there's just not as many people being hired.”
Walker: Series A Round Sizes Have Increased 50% to $13M–$15M
“The amount raised, you know, it used to be that the amount raised was maybe more like eight to ten million dollars in a series A and now it's much more call it 13 to 15. So that's a 50% increase in the capital”
Walker: Typical Startup Seed Rounds Average $4M–$5M at $20M–$22M Valuations
“If you're talking a seed round, you're raising between four and five million bucks. You're probably valuing the company at 20 to 22 post.”
Walker: Hundreds of zombie startups will never raise again but resist closing
“There are hundreds and hundreds and hundreds of founders on Carta who We'll never raise another venture round, but they are still three or four or even five years away from shutting the company down.”
Walker: Startup functional payroll benchmarking will be discarded within two years
“I think that stuff is going to get thrown out the window over the next two years. It's just going to be like, do we need this person?”
Walker: Series A headcount will drop to 15 by year-end
“Now, it's down to 17, and I think by the end of the year, that'll be more like 15. And that's at, you know, on the day of the Series A fundraise.”
Walker: Startup salaries have lagged inflation since 2022 except for AI/ML
“If you looked at versus 20, 22, the salaries are up, but like not keeping pace with inflation. Everywhere except the obvious exception to that rule is AI ML engineering, which is flying.”
Walker: Seed rounds average $16M pre-money and $3.5M raised on Carta
“Right now, what we're seeing is that seed stage is about sixteen million pre-money and three and a half or so million raised in the round. So you add that up and you're talking about a twenty million dollar post-money valuation for seed stage for companies on …”
Walker: Early employee equity grants have not increased despite leaner teams
“Like, the equity grants have not gone up for early employees. If anything, they've, like, Gone down just a smidge. There's a little bit of AI ML engineers who are, that's not true for, and those equity events have gone up.”