The Ledger
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Scaringe: Automakers failing at neural net autonomy will shrink to zero
“It's the companies that do this well will exist. The companies that don't do this well, like, I feel really strong on this. They will not exist. They will shrink to nothing. They'll asymptotically approach, you know, zero.”
Scaringe: Fewer than five non-Chinese companies can solve neural net autonomy
“I think there's more than one, less than five companies outside of China that have The necessary ingredients to do this, the capital, the GPUs, the car park with, you know, enough vehicles generating enough data. I say more than one less than five. It's probab…”
Scaringe: Rule-based autonomy has a zero percent chance of competing
“A lot of the solutions that are more one dot O based and are sort of stuck in that framework, I think have a, like a truly a zero percent chance of progressing to be competitive with a neural net based approach.”
Scaringe: By 2030, car buyers will expect vehicles to drive themselves
“I mean, I think by 2030, it'll be It's inconceivable to buy a car and not expect it to drive itself.”
Scaringe: Upcoming Rivian R2 will include lidar alongside radar and cameras
“Our approach to this is we have a higher level of capability on our perception stacks. We have better cameras. We have radar. And of course, with R two, we'll have a lidar as well.”
Scaringe: US EV adoption is throttled by a lack of vehicle choices
“So I think my view is the EV adoption in the United States is a reflection of the lack of choice. There's one set of really great choices with Model F and Model Y. I think there needs to be many more.”
Scaringe: Level 2 and 4 autonomy behave identically 99.99% of the time
“If you're driving a level two system or a level three system or a level four system, For 99.9999, like three or four nine, identical. The difference is like the fifth or sixth or seventh nine on that is these like extreme corner cases.”
Scaringe: Only Tesla and Rivian avoid domain-based vehicle architectures
“With the exception of Tesla and Rivian, every car on the road has what is called a domain-based architecture.”
Scaringe: Autonomous driving differences will be driven by UI, not core models
“The differences in the way it drives or feels are going to be more about like, what's the UI, the user interface of it.”
Scaringe: Rivian R1S outsells Tesla Model X roughly two to one
“The R one S is the best selling premium electric SUV in the country. So that's electric SUV is over 70,000 dollars. And where the best selling premiums should be electric or non-electric in the state of California. So it sells really well. You know, it outsell…”
Scaringe: Onboard inference is 10x more expensive than autonomous perception sensors
“Radars are extremely cheap. LiDars are now, you know, very, very cheap. But the really expensive part of the system is actually the onboard inference. And so that's like an order imagine more expensive than any of the perception stack.”
Scaringe: Rivian's perception stack sits between Tesla and Waymo in sensor density
“We're going to go, you know, not as heavy as let's say a Waymo on perception, but heavier than let's say Tesla to build a really robust data platform on a vehicle by vehicle basis.”