why aren't all 86 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Assertion Supported
Armstrong: Coinbase contributed x402 to Linux Foundation with Google and AWS
“We're seeing a lot of agentic payment now flow over these new protocols, like x-for-o-two, which is one that we incubated at Coinbase that we actually put into the Linux foundation. So Google and Cloudflare and AWS, a bunch of people are working with us on tha…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Pereyra: Senior systems engineering expertise won't enter AI models soon
“None of this is public. This will, won't go into the models for a long time.”
Insight
Ramaswamy: Google and Meta Succeeded by Being Data-First Rather Than Product-First
“The great companies of this century, a company like a Google or a Meta, were more data-first companies than like purely product-first companies than pretty much any others compared to before.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Jain: Glean's largest customer holds over 1 billion internal documents
“One of our largest customers. They have more than one billion documents inside their company. Now hear this, you know, when Alain and I, you know, when we were working on search, At Google, you know, in 2004, the entire internet was actually one billion docume…”
Assertion Partly supported
Arora: Only two or three companies worldwide have billion-user distribution
“There are two or three companies in the world which have distribution of the billions, and whether it's Facebook with all their properties, whether it's Apple with their properties, Google with their properties, so they have the distribution.”
Insight
Ng: Startups gain an advantage over incumbents by building for a single persona
“So it turns out one advantage that startups have is while you are early, you can serve kind of one user profile. Today, you know, if you're, I don't know, like Google, right? Google serves such a diverse set of user personas, you really have to think about a l…”
Assertion Supported
Balog: AlphaEvolve algorithms are already deployed in Google's infrastructure
“Alpha Evolve is an AI coding agent that is able to discover new algorithms that are able to make new discoveries on open scientific problems. And at the same time, those algorithms can be so practical that they are already deployed in keep Key parts of Google'…”
Assertion Contradicted
Fei-Fei Li: Her and Andrej Karpathy's image captioning research was first
“And Andre and my work were the first together with Google's that was out of the door.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Jain: Users adopted Glean search immediately but struggled with conversational Assistant
“Everybody has been trained over the last 20 years to actually type in, you know, one or two keywords, like Google has sort of taught us, you know, on what search can do. So with search, we never had a problem. Like, you know, we launched our product, we had, l…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Jain: Finding internal information inside Google was super hard
“Even at Google, like, it was a big joke, you know, always we had internally, like, you know, All of us were spending all of our time making it easy for people to find things, but not us internally at Google. It's super hard to find anything inside the company.”
Disclosure
Finn: Google's code security rules made real-world robot data collection nearly impossible
“As one example, taking a robot off campus was like almost a non-starter just for code security reasons. And if you want to collect diverse data, taking robots off campus is, is valuable.”
Assertion Supported
Google's self-driving project pivoted from ADAS to full autonomy in 2013
“And actually our first product that we thought was going to be viable was, you know, what nowadays you would call kind of an advanced driver system, right? And we had some expectations of, you know, a small number of years that it would take for us to get ther…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Sarah Guo predicts massive engagement leaps for workflow-integrated AI interfaces
“And as builders, even Google builders, great job, Google, like enable more of these interfaces. We're just going to get a step function increase in engagement on them.”
Assertion Supported
Vinyals: Gemini Reasons Over Entire Books Rather Than Compressing to Single Vectors
“The problem with, of course, retrieval based methods is they tend to simplify things to say, hey, like this whole book is just a single vector. Whereas if you just upload a whole book into Gemini and ask questions, it can really reason about every single word,…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Gil: Longer context windows will prove more important than expected for biology
“I think for certain application areas, like biology, longer context windows actually seem to be quite important. And so, for example, if you're doing a protein folding model and you have a short context window, you're often actually not encapsulating much of t…”
Opinion
Guo: Google's unreleased internal multimodal and function-calling capabilities are highly impressive
“Gemini is a very impressive model. I think the capabilities that they have internally that they haven't released yet around additional, like, function calling and multimodality are also really, really impressive”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Gil: Competitive pressure has reignited Google's will to make major AI strides
“And so really, I think the thing that was lacking until recently was the will. And it seems like now, because of the competitive dynamic, the will has been reborn, right? And so it really feels to me like they are gonna make really big strides going forward.”
Opinion
Coates: Perplexity sits exactly between ChatGPT's interface and Google's search
“The sort of the triangle of like perplexity, Google, ChatGPT of like, it's basically like LLM native search and like ChatGPT really good at the LLM interface thing, not amazing at search yet. Google amazing at search, not really figured out the LLM thing yet. …”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Gil: Google's identity layer build froze company-wide shipping for 18 months
“Like at Google, there was a famous sort of identity layer that was built, and for a year and a half, people just didn't ship things, right, in other areas.”
Insight
Noon: Duopolies bring market stability but extreme security fragility
“Duopolies are stable in the market, but very fragile when it comes to security.”
Assertion Supported
Gil: Google paper shows AI feedback matches human feedback in specific cases
“Google just came out with a really interesting paper on that, where, you know, they showed that you can have an AI similarly provide feedback to whether the AI itself is generating good output. And for certain use cases, that works as well as people.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Polosukhin: LSTMs Were Too Slow for Production as Documents Scaled
“The state of the art at this time was LSTMs, Recurring Neural Networks, which you could not launch in production at all because they're too slow and take a fair bit of time to process as documents scale.”
Assertion Supported
Gil: Infrastructure Costs Drove YouTube's Early Acquisition by Google
“One of the reasons YouTube sold was the infrastructure point you made earlier, where just dealing with that huge amount of streaming and the costs associated with it and everything else, even in the prior generation of just, you know, can we host and stream th…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Scott: Early Google hiring lacked direction, leading engineers to zero-impact projects
“We were hiring these brilliant, brilliant people at the time, and the way that we did hiring was kind of crazy. It's like, all right, well, if you're smart, just come work here. And like, we have no idea like what exactly it is you're going to do. And you like…”
Opinion
Kevin Scott: OpenAI's size and energy resemble early Google
“When I go sit In OpenAI, it really reminds me of early Google days, and it's about the same size Google was when I joined, and so, like, I couldn't figure it out for a while, and I was like, wow, this is, like, really giving me, like, you know, early Google no…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Gil: OpenAI Is Hiring String Theorists into CS Roles Like Early Google
“It's the first time I've seen, like, string theorists getting hired again. Yeah. Into computer science roles. Yeah. You know, since Google days.”
Assertion Supported
Google's LaMDA Was Originally Just a Renamed Meena Chatbot
“So that was like a renaming of Mina. So I guess I went and helped Daniel on Mina. We got it on some giant language models and then kind of became like an internal, like a viral sensation and then got renamed to Lambda.”
Assertion Contradicted
Ramaswamy: Google Beat Live.com Image Search Through Main Results Integration
“Google knocked out live.com Bing's image search as the top image search product in the world by integrating image search right into the search experience.”
Assertion Contradicted
Krishnan: DeepSeek Preceded Anthropic and Google in Releasing Reasoning Models
“DeepSeq was the only reasoning model, which was not open AI. So I don't think Claude had come out of the reasoning model yet. I don't think Google had yet. It was the only non-open AI reasoning model.”
Disclosure
Balog: DeepMind benchmarked AlphaEvolve against heavily optimized Google infrastructure problems
“The problems we chose to apply Alpha Evolve to in the first instance both on the scientific side and the practical side, We deliberately chose problems which have been worked on for a very long time by the very best people. So on the, you know, on the scientif…”
Assertion Contradicted
Jain: The entire internet was one billion documents in 2004
“In 2004, the entire internet was actually one billion documents.”
Disclosure
Glean Built Custom Enterprise Embeddings on Top of BERT
“We started with this BERT model that Google had put in open domain, which was trained on all of the internet's, you know, data and knowledge. And we would then take those models and then for every customer of ours, we'd actually build custom embeddings, you kn…”
Assertion Supported
Gil: Google's Med-PaLM 2 outperformed individual physicians in panel evaluations
“Where MedPalm II, where the output of the model was better than the average physician. It was basically like a health model, the Google Belt, and they would use physician panels to rate Outputs of the model versus individual physicians, and the model did bette…”
Opinion
Sarah Guo uses Google NotebookLM as a prebuilt RAG interface
“I notebook LM is my favorite new AI product of late, but that's not the way I use it. I just use it as like a really nice little prebuilt rag gooey attached to all my data.”
Assertion Supported
Singhal: Google's 540B PaLM was the largest densely activated model in 2022
“The first Palm model was released in twenty-twenty-two, which was kind of this 540 B decoder only transformer model at the time, the largest densely activated model.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Singhal: Google presents health info by attributing it to authoritative sources
“Where, for example, Google is doing that with health information is largely because it can attribute things to the Mayo Clinic and other organizations.”
Assertion Supported
Liang: Google beat Stanford's medical AI with a model 200x larger
“Google did come up with a model that was, I think, 200 times larger and they beat that model.”
Disclosure
Biewald: Why I Turned Down Google To Join Yahoo
“I actually turned down an offer from Google because they didn't tell me what I would be working on to go to Yahoo because they were like, okay, you can work on, you know, search rank ranking in different languages.”