robotics

“But I think it's probably less than, my guess is going to be less than 10 years, probably about five years, and, you know, I think you're going to see some pretty amazing robots.”

“So you need physical form for the AI in order for it to truly be an existential threat. And that's why if I were to focus on an area, it'd probably be robotics or something like that, because that's where you suddenly give physical form to something. And if yo…”

“It seemed like what you really want in, in robotics is a super boring, re repetitive task. And logistics is about as boring and repetitive as it gets.”

“We do not have a, Yeah. Sort of robotics exponentials right now. Like we've got a cognitive exponential.”

“So I think there the video understanding piece is probably more relevant than the video generation piece.”

“I don't think it would be fully lights out and no human, at least in the near future, but I think of it as would be very robotics augmented. Like, so think of one person would be able to oversee 10, 20, 30 robots.”

“And before humanoids are fully widespread I think we will see that the chat GBT of a moment for robotics being articulated in the industrial settings earlier than in the commercial settings, like, because those are the places that can actually justify the hard…”

“You kind of don't need that when you are in a more Restricted domain, like robotics because like you actually could have so much data coverage that your test scenarios are just part of your training scenario. So to some degree, like we actually don't need to r…”

“So I would say, like, the bar for the chat GPT moment for robotics is higher. Like, you need to solve the generality, like, which is the same kind of problem, but you need to solve it with high level of reliability.”

“The most technical definition of scaling law does apply and we have seen it apply in this domain. And it's somewhat not surprising because like if you think about like the scaling law in the most technical sense, which is if you scale up data and you scale up …”

“I would say identification and routings are typically more considered a more solved problem than grasping. Like, because if you, there are other, like, more mechanical way to solve those problems. Like, you can design a piece of conveyor that, like, if you alw…”

“And so we found robotics to be such a great way to both utilize the advances in AI, but also we think of it as a way to also propel AI forward. Like this is where you get the grounded data. This is where you get that embodied data of not just AI that is traine…”

“So it seems like the, you know, in general, I wouldn't be surprised if 20, 24 and 20, 25 is the year of proliferation of models where we're going to start to see an expansion in terms of the different types that are covered, you know, chemistry and material sc…”

“In robotics, You know, most machine learning people will look at it as a data collection problem where your internet data, even video data of a bunch of actions just isn't enough. We need embodied action data, like, you know, controls data in some way.”

“The ability to operate on financial or accounting data with these models seems like a very A very useful commercial capability and actually perhaps much more tenable and like a sort of linear path to commercial value than some of the things that we're describi…”

“I am inclined to believe that, you know, a lot of these domains are going to be solved, and it's just a question of, like, picking the product path through.”

“There's so much you learn from video, which you don't necessarily get from other modalities, which companies like OpenAI have invested a lot in the past, like language, you know, like the minutia of like how arms and joints move through space, you know, again,…”

“And then I would say also one last dimension of it is you benefit a ton from like the transfer learning between the different tasks. And in AI, you really want a single neural nut that is multitasking, doing lots of things that's very getting all the intellige…”

“I don't know that there's, like, any individual impediments that I'm, like, really familiar with. I just think it's a lot of grunt work. A lot of, like, the tools are available. Transformers are this beautiful, like, blob of tissue. You can just get just arbit…”

“We are very focused on the, you know, trillions of miles where we can have the positive benefits. So for us like I focus, I think focus is very, very important. So we are being very, you know, laser focused on driving.”

“I think we're going to see technical proof of breakthroughs in robotics and in generalization this year, though not deployments.”

“I think for sure, both, both in AI generally, like, you know, just pure software companies. And then also, I think the next wave is starting on, on robotics. There will be like that bubble effect.”

“I started working more seriously in robotics more than 10 years ago at this point at the start of my PhD at Berkeley, and we were working on neural network control Trying to train neural networks that map from image pixels to directly actually to motor torques…”

“Typically in machine learning, a lot of the successful applications of like recommender systems, language models like image detection, a lot of the consumers of that Of the model outputs are actually humans who could actually check it, and the humans are good …”

“With driving, I feel like you kind of need to solve the entire distribution to be have anything that's viable. You have to be able to handle an intersection at any time of day or with any kind of possible pedestrian scenario or other cars and all that. Whereas…”

“The real world is like an interesting litmus test because at the end of the day, like there is a, you know, frame rate in the real world you need to live on. And it doesn't matter if you get the right answer after you think for two minutes, like, You know, the…”

“Of course, there's robotics, but robotics is very much a system integration problem as much as a you know, even if you look at animals, it's not just the compute in the brain per se, right?”

“The action plan actually has a section in it of making sure, you know, we are set up For robotics. I think that's obviously that's going to get super key within the next 18 to 24 months.”

“Probably we're gonna, like, I would imagine the first things we're gonna credit as being more conscious or a little bit more robot-like, honestly, where you have some sort of, like, live input from the world that you're reacting to”

“It feels to me like Optimus or some form of like Tesla robot will be one of the winners, most likely, right? High probability... The most likely global winners in robotics will be some subset of China plus Tesla plus something else, right?”

“I think the products will support investment grade buyers who are going to have contracts that say, like, we want it, and you can raise debt against it.”

“If robotics is going to do what we're doing with these companies today, every single of those buildings need to be either three D printed or completely like standardized. I don't see that happening.”

“When we figure out AI and robotics that allows us to do semi-autonomous manufacturing, energy will become the cost of all things, right? The cost of buying a thing will become the cost of energy used to make it.”