drones

5 statements across 4 episodes · 3 bullish · 1 bearish · 4 people on the record · first statement Jun 1, 2023 by Brian Schimpf · across every show →

Everything said about drones, oldest first

Jun 1, 2023
Assertion Supported
Schimpf: Low-cost drones give adversaries cruise missile equivalents under $100K
“Historically the US has been one of the few countries that has been able to make like cruise missiles, but with the low cost of drones, now effectively Iran and nearly every country has the equivalent of low cost cruise missiles. For, you know, like a 100,000 …”
Brian Schimpf Jun 1, 2023 ▶ 16:19 No Priors Ep. 19 | With Anduril CEO Brian Schimpf
Jan 23, 2025 bullish
Prediction Open · timeframe Jan 2035
Clerico: Firefighting drones will perform rapid wildfire attacks within a decade
“So in my opinion, I think over the next five to 10 years, we will see exactly what you're talking about drones to do rapid initial attack. So you see you know, you get an ignition that's detected from a camera or satellite. And drones are pre-positioned can ge…”
Bill Clerico Jan 23, 2025 ▶ 28:00 No Priors Ep. 98 | With Convective Capital Founder Bill Clerico
Mar 5, 2025 bearish
Prediction Open · timeframe Mar 2030
Hendrycks: Nations Will Race on AI Drones Without Coordinating Restraints
“No, like, super weapon type stuff, but more conventional type of warfare, like drones and things like that, I expect that they'll continue to race and Probably not, maybe not even coordinate on anything like that, but that's just how things would go.”
Dan Hendrycks Mar 5, 2025 ▶ 22:35 No Priors Ep. 105 | With Director of the Center of AI Safety Dan Hendrycks
Jan 15, 2026 bullish
Insight
Michael: Directed energy intercepts are far cheaper than missile defense against drones
“And now with all the drone warfare you see, it's much cheaper to take out drones with an energy zap Than it is to send a missile at another, at a drone, right? A five million dollar missile at a 50,000 dollar drone or something.”
Emil Michael Jan 15, 2026 ▶ 8:10 The Largest Untapped Market Inside U.S. Defense | Emil Michael
Jan 15, 2026 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Emil Michael predicts major defense innovation in large, missile-like drones
“I think there's going to be, when you think about drones, not just the small drones, they just get the bigger and bigger drones that really look like long range missiles, if you will, to be innovation there.”
Emil Michael Jan 15, 2026 ▶ 29:11 The Largest Untapped Market Inside U.S. Defense | Emil Michael
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