The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 31 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Colleges will spin out athletic departments to private equity
“I think what's going to happen is again, it's uncharted territory. You don't know exactly how it's going to play out, but I think the short version is the college will spin out the program. Their athletics program is its own business entity. They'll sell equit…”
Parr: Elon Musk will become a trillionaire within 3-5 years
“A person worth one trillion dollars, which is what Elon will be in three or four or five years.”
Shaan Puri: The AI email assistant market will be an absolute bloodbath
“I do feel undoubtedly that email inboxes are going to start to have AI in them and the AI is going to help you process, categorize summarize your emails in a way and respond, help you with the responses. The problem is Do I really believe that you are going to…”
Pompliano: Bitcoin price will probably rise as halving cuts supply amid ETF demand
“The Bitcoin halving is coming, and that's just when the daily incoming supply, the number of Bitcoin that get created each day, is gonna get cut in half, from 900 Bitcoin to 450.
So like, I always joke, if you went to Economics one-on-one class, supply and de…”
Jess Mah predicts artificial human egg generation from genetic material by 2028
“Let's say you wanted to be the mother of a child, not the father, and we could take your genetic material and create an egg out of that. I think that we're going to see that within the next five years.”
Adcock: Figure will deploy commercial robots with major brands within 24 months
“And I think we can do these over the next like 24 months. We'll have robots in commercial. Applications with like some of the world's biggest brands.”
Shah: Prompt-driven text-to-video with director styles will arrive in 2023
“I would not be surprised, let's say by the end of this year, that we have a reasonable way to kind of describe in textual form what we want, who the characters are, what the scene is what kind of stylistic attributes we want. We can point it to, oh, I want thi…”
Puri: Developers will scrape Spotify to train open-source AI music models
“Somebody's about to do that for music. They're about to download all the music. They're about to go download all the music off Spotify. And then they're going to train an engine to say, Hey, create new music. This is what music is. Create new music. And that's…”
Parr: Handshake data annotation will hit $100M revenue soon
“And so in a very short amount of time, they pivoted and that business that they have is going to be at a hundred million dollars a year in the next couple of months.”
Puri: Companies will launch supplements to remove bodily microplastics
“I also think, by the way, for Plastic Free Everything, that there's gotta be a supplement that people are gonna try to sell that's going to, like, remove the plastic from your balls and your bloodstream. I think people are gonna get on the, you know, Every cat…”
Puri believes Friend.tech is not the long-term winning crypto social network
“Frontech, I think is like another kind of like attempt. I don't think it's probably the one but I do think over the long haul, somebody will do that.”
Puri: AI agents will create self-executing to-do lists
“And what I realized was that's not going to stop at just cars, that the biggest opportunity is the self-doing to-do list, just like we have the self-driving car. And what's a self-doing to-do list? The self-doing to-do list is going to be, well, all of our pro…”
Yanowitz: MakerDAO will generate $100M in revenue in 2023
“So MakerDAO, for example. They'll do a hundred million of revenue this year.”
Puri predicts Donald Trump will win the 2024 presidential election
“I think Donald Trump's gonna win.”
Shaan Puri predicts Kevin Systrom's news app Artifact will fail
“I don't think people want to read a bunch of news in the same way that they're willing to like swipe through mindless videos for entertainment. And so I think that's where Has this problem that a lot of Silicon Valley ideas have, which is they try to sell you …”
Wilkinson: Major AI competitors to GPT-3 will emerge within six months
“There's going to be a lot of. A lot of other players in that space coming out over the next probably three to six months. And that it will be, there's going to be an ecosystem of offering similar to AWS and Azure and Google cloud. I think it'll be the same thi…”
Sam Parr: AI voice cloning will be used in future movie production
“That Anthony Bourdain thing, that's obviously, that's gonna happen. That's gonna happen in the future, how movies are gonna come about.”
Parr: A private World's Fair will never reach 50M attendees
“It will never, ever, ever happen at that scale.”
Shaan Puri: More companies will put treasury reserves in Bitcoin within a year
“It's likely that there are more companies out there and it'll take them six months to a year to make this move, but they will take a portion of their treasury reserves and they'll move it into Bitcoin.”
Puri: Natural language AI will generate full animations and video
“You're just going to be able to say things and it's going to be able to create what you're saying. So you're going to be able to say, okay, what if Donald Trump was talking to, you know, whatever, Barack Obama, and then Donald jumped in the air and he said thi…”
Shaan Puri: Meta is preparing to add screens to its smart glasses
“I think they're about to make them good, bad. And what good, bad is they, they're putting like a screen in it.”
Puri: Labubu will hit $2B to $3B in revenue next year
“So, I actually expect that over the next year, this thing goes even, the star kind of goes viral now, but it burns out, and it hits a two billion or three billion in, in revenue.”
Guo: AI video generation will produce $1B in revenue
“And so I think this is a good example of, like, I think there's a billion dollars of video generation revenue for them or for others, but, like, you know, you actually have to invest in the product pretty deeply, but it doesn't mean that your wedge can't be re…”
Shaan Puri predicts clean tampon startups will reach $100M in revenue
“There will be, trust me, there will be one, there will be two, there will be three that are in this category. Like, the current incumbents will either adapt or be replaced by alternatives that are gonna That are going to play on these health concerns.”
Puri: Legacy consulting giants will acquire billion-dollar AI-specific practices
“I believe that there's going to be billion dollar consulting companies that are specifically just about AI that the big consulting companies, Deloitte, PwC, McKinsey, et cetera, they're going to need to buy They're going to acquire practices that, that do this…”
Puri: AI will soon power a viral personality test or astrology app
“I think that's going to happen very soon. And this, we'll look back at this clip and be like, dude, he called it. John called it that that was going to happen. It has to happen.”
Ahmed: Talent agencies for deceased people will emerge with AI
“I think that there there's going to be like a talent agency of sorts that's for non-living people.”
Parr: AI video generation tools will be standard within ten years
“Like if they're not doing it now, like it's reasonable that in the near term of 10 years, like this is going to be normal and add two inches to that guy's neck beard and this is done.”
Puri predicts UserTesting will IPO within 12 to 24 months
“User testing has become a very large company, hundreds of millions in revenue, and will go public, you know, probably in the next 12 to 24 months is my guess.”