The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 595 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Saylor: Bitcoin Is the Greatest Corporate Treasury Asset of Our Lifetimes
“Bitcoin is an exploding asset class. It's really a, it's the greatest treasury reserve asset of our lifetimes, and it's the solution to every company's treasury problem.”
Yanowitz: The best way for Bitcoin to really work is US collapse
“The best way for Bitcoin to really work is for the U S to collapse.”
Balaji: The woke movement and CCP are driving a counterattack for conformity
“What I think we have now is a strong counterattack in favor of conformity by both, you know, kind of like the woke contingent and like, you know, CCP.”
Liemandt: Education Is a Multi-Trillion-Dollar Market with No Competitors
“I'm going to show this is the single best market. If you're an entrepreneur to enter, it's a multi-trillion dollar market with no competitors.”
DHH: Apple acted like a 'greedy dick' during HEY launch
“I'm so happy. Apple chose to be such a greedy dick about it.”
Musk: Controlling silicon intelligence a million times smarter than biology is foolish
“I'm just trying to be realistic here. If we have, if AI intelligence is vastly more, if AI is like, You know, let's say that there's a million times more silicon intelligence than there is biological. It's, I think it's, it would be foolish to assume that, tha…”
Galloway: GLP-1 drugs are more transformative than AI
“I think GLP-ONE is a more transformative technology than AI.”
Galloway: Unsubscribing from Big Tech is the fastest way to pressure Trump
“What I've noticed is the Trump administration only walks back things when the markets move, and the fastest way to make the markets move right now is to go after the companies that are 40% of the S&P by unsubscribing from Amazon, from Apple, from Microsoft pla…”
Braziel: KKR and large PE firms ruthlessly crush small bankruptcy players
“Every now and then I'll hear someone even smart friends will say, oh, well, you know, KKR is going to make sure everyone's taken care of because they don't want the bad press. I'm like, what are you talking about? It's not like Wobegon. They are going to walk …”
Lemkin: Jony Ive's $6B AI device valuation is a great bet
“And then, you know, people think this Johnny Ive thing for six billion is crazy. It's a great bet because we're going to go from 20 minutes a day, 22 minutes a day in ChatGPT to 24 hours a day in ChatGPT.”
Lemkin: AI means software products are no longer durable
“I used to think all these products were durable. That they were durable. Now. I don't think any of them are durable.”
Lemkin: Founders without AI clarity should cash out $5M to $10M now
“The smartest play, if you can possibly pull it off today, is to go make five or ten million, cash out, and just chill. Because you can't predict where it's gonna go. Like, this is, the world's gonna, like, whatever you could do to liquidate your assets now, th…”
Currier: MrBeast relies on weak scale effect and is vulnerable like BuzzFeed
“That's a scale effect. And it's a very weak one. Yeah, no, he's very vulnerable. Just like Buzzfeed was very vulnerable and wasn't going to go anywhere.”
Currier: Sell Nvidia, buy Google and Microsoft for their distribution
“Oh, I mean, opinion is that I would sell. Yeah. NVIDIA compared to long-term, I would still be a Google and a Microsoft buyer because of the distribution.”
Currier: Zuckerberg's virtual world is still behind 2003 Second Life tech
“What Zuckerberg is trying to do right now with his virtual world is still behind what Corey Andreka and Philip were able to do with the technology in 2003 and four.”
Dorsey's Peace-Loving Hippie Persona Is an Entirely Engineered Narrative
“He no, it's, that, that is all a, it's all a story that he tells.”
Puri: DOGE is our only shot to escape US debt death spiral
“Is this one of our only shots to get out of the death spiral of excess spending? I believe so, and I cannot believe it happened.”
Petersen: Tech media unfairly targets startup founders instead of incumbent mega-corporations
“All reporters play a very important function of like holding the powerful accountable, but like founders, you're not that power, but we're kind of suffering through like, you know, we're up against some very powerful forces in the world. Like we feel like we'r…”
Smith: An Energy Enhancement System Cured His Chronic Daily Headaches
“The, I actually think that this EES thing is the only thing that worked. I just went in there and I sat in a lawn chair for an hour, maybe two hours, and then just came out and in my stomach, like I can feel my stomach, like reorganizing, et cetera, churning. …”
Guo: Ignore AI doom scenarios; prioritize near-term fraud and disinformation
“There's no linear path from here to there. And so when people ask me about like the doom scenario, like I am much more concerned about abuses we actually do understand. So for example, like what if people don't understand what information is true or not, or li…”
Shaan Puri: Robinhood's gamified design exploits unsophisticated retail traders
“Robinhood is designed the same way. Robinhood is literally designed like a mobile game to get you addicted to trade, to get you to try to trade as much as you can. They make money. Every time you make a trade, they don't make money by you buying a low cost ind…”
Means: Segmenting Chronic Lifestyle Conditions Is Medicine's Biggest Post-WWII Mistake
“The biggest mistake we've made since World War II is that we've segmented these chronic lifestyle conditions when they're really the same thing.”
Means: Ozempic is essentially 'liquified anorexia' and a crash diet
“Essentially it is liquefied anorexia. I mean, truly, truly that's what it is. It's making you not want to eat. It's a crash diet.”
Means: Healthcare VCs fund repackaged existing drugs instead of true disruption
“I talked to a lot of esteemed healthcare VCs and they think innovation is putting a millennial pink package on Viagra and shipping it to people more conveniently. They think that innovation is like better UX on medical records. You know, you look down the list…”
Lonsdale: US defense primes engage in innovation theater without real competition
“What happened to defense is all these companies consolidated the 19 nineties after the cold war spending went down. So they all merged and became like these giant primes. And these primes started acting a lot more like government agencies themselves, like not …”
Sanchez: Grant Cardone's fundraising terms are one-sided against retail investors
“I looked at some of the fundraising docs on Grant Cardone's stuff, and I don't think it's that great for retail investors. I think it's pretty one-sided.”
Puri: AI adult entertainment is more ethical than human porn
“AI porn, I believe, is more ethical. So, you know, just like the way we have plant-based proteins and Cruelty-free makeup and vegan leather. No humans are going to be harmed in the production of this video, right? Like, I think that the idea that we could sati…”
Adcock: Humanoid robotics is bigger and easier to scale than self-driving
“And so I think it's bigger than a self-driving industry and I think it's easier to scale it once it's working.”
Manson: Andrew Tate's content is just recycled 2000s pickup material
“Watching the rise of Tate, because he just, he's like a copy and paste of half the guys that were in that industry. You know, it's like, all the shit he says, I'm like, oh yeah, I remember, you know, this guy used to say that. Oh yeah, that guy used to say tha…”
Shkreli: Big Law Firms Easily Secure Rapid Federal Indictments
“And it's not hard if you go to a law firm, you know, like a Cooley, Cleary, Gottlieb, Skadden, Arbs, pick your, Paul Weiss, pick your biggest law firm. You say, hey, we have this guy, he did something bad, you know, look into this. You know, usually you'll get…”
Shkreli: Mark Cuban's drug company will not save anyone money
“The, whatever Cuban's doing is not gonna save anybody any money. And it's like, I can make Mark any money either, but this could actually change the curve on healthcare.”
Puri slams Chamath for profiting on SPACs while LPs lost money
“Chamath made money off of a bunch of his shitty SPACs because he's the promoter, and these funds manage billions of dollars, and they'll make hundreds of millions in fees along the way as a reward even if they lose their investors' money.”
Wilkinson: True value creation by Chamath Palihapitiya won't be clear for decades
“Chamath, we won't know if Chamath has actually built value for another 10 or 20 years. And frankly, like his, it's all very like secret. Cause I think a lot of his stuff is private. So we really have no clue how much money he has, how much money he made what's…”
Shaan Puri: Amouranth's business P&L is superior to MrBeast's
“If you just took the sort of like the face off the business, if I just showed you the PNL of both businesses, I think you would be like, well, I want her PNL, right? Because you're making almost as much money with way less expenses, with way less staff and ove…”
Luckey: Private prison companies are incentivized to maximize nonviolent recidivism
“Those companies have a strong incentive to lobby for and perpetuate laws that
Incarcerate people for the longest period of time for the least serious crime.
In other words, they don't want murderers and terrorists.
They want nonviolent drug offenders who will …”
Venture Capital Investing Is Totally Random and Functions Like Roulette
“I still think ventures totally random. I do it for fun off the side of my desk.”
Holiday: Peter Thiel's obsessive drive leads to poor political bets
“The problem is if you're the kind of person who it's like, I'm going to spend 10 years chasing down this media outlet when everyone is telling me not to do that. You're also the kind of person who can get sucked into other things that I think are going to pay …”
Noah Kagan: Brex and Ramp are overvalued $10B branded credit card companies
“I think some of the stupidest companies that are big that I don't get is like Brex or Ramp. They're like credit card branded companies that are like ten billion dollars.”
Walling: Only 1% of Tech Companies Should Raise Venture Capital
“I think one percent of companies, one percent of tech companies need funding and the other 99% really shouldn't, shouldn't do it.”
Puri: Chamath Palihapitiya is an elite virtue signaler playing the everyman
“Which, by the way, is why it's so funny when people like Chamath, and I like Chamath, I think he's great, but I think he's a virtue signaler. Like, I think he loves to say the things that make him sound like the people's, you know, the people's champion.”
Puri: White people are the least racist group compared to immigrant elders
“In reality, nobody is more, white people are the least racist. Nobody is more racist than, like, you know, an Indian parent or a Chinese grandmother.”
Dan Held: Claims that Tether pumps Bitcoin's price are completely unfounded
“People hypothesize like Tether is being used to pump Bitcoin. I think that's completely unfounded. It was based on a University of Texas research report, which I don't even know if you could call it fucking research, but it was like a research report where the…”
Puri: VCs Slamming Astrology Startups Are Hypocrites Unless They Condemn Religion
“If you're gonna say this about horoscopes, you better also say it about religion, otherwise I view you sort of as a hypocrite there.”
Balaji: Craig Newmark neutralized hostile media coverage with journalism grants
“Craig Newmark effectively bought them off with the Newmark foundation stuff with a lot of grants for journalism”
Balaji: Founding a startup in San Francisco is like choosing Java
“Somebody who's choosing San Francisco for a startup, I crinkle my eyebrows as, you know, I mentioned it before, before the pandemic, I said it was like choosing Java, you know, proven, but kind of sucks. And it's like, okay, you don't know new languages and, y…”
Balaji: The FDA is the primary global bottleneck for medical innovation
“Basically the FDA is like the primary blocker of like medical innovation, not just in the US, but in the world.”