The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 1,067 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Currier: Nvidia and big LLM training companies will eventually go to zero
“So both Nvidia and all of these giant LM companies who are spending all this money on training are going to go to zero eventually.”
Srinivasan: Crypto will replace Yale Law, Columbia Journalism, and Kennedy School
“Crypto is not just, you know, the next wall street. It's also the next Silicon Valley because decentralized social networks and so on are built there, but even less, obviously it's the next Yale law and Columbia school of journalism and Kennedy school of gover…”
Shkreli: Machines will replace human doctors entirely within 30 years
“There's, if we do our jobs right, there's no such thing as a doctor in 30 years. That every operation, every prescription, every piece of medical advice you ever get from now on comes from a machine and it costs 10 cents.”
Yeung says Prenetics never produced a false positive or negative in HK
“We're the only testing provider that never had a f**k up when it came to false positives and false negatives.”
Puri: Future corporate hierarchies will invert, with humans working for AI bosses
“And I think actually it's going the other way, which is it's not that the AI works for us, but that we work for the AI. And people are going to hate that sentence, but let me just describe what that means. AI is very good at Understanding a broad set of inform…”
Puri: AI may cure death and revive cryopreserved people within 30 years
“It's not crazy that in the next 30 years that AI's gonna figure out how to, like, cure a lot of disease, death, to be able to bring back cryogenically frozen people to be alive, or to, like, upload their consciousness, upload their brain into some sort of, lik…”
Puri: Central AI will manage corporate strategy while humans become junior assistants
“The super intelligence is going to be the boss. You're going to be the junior thing. And so and that's what he's, that's what these guys are talking about, Brian Halligan and Jack Dorsey, which is that actually there'll be like a central AI that's making the k…”
Graham Weaver: AI app startups with $500M valuations will go to zero
“And they'll have two million of revenue and a five hundred million dollar valuation, and they're gonna go to zero. Like, they're gonna be worth absolutely zero.”
Shaan Puri predicts China's elite talent pipeline will outcompete US education
“Whereas if other countries are taking this idea of, like, your job is to produce talent quickly and early, and that, like, it's, the goal is greatness, and let's be competitive about it. Like, what's going to happen over a 20 year arc, right? Like, you're goin…”
Galloway says most profitable companies exploit immature prefrontal cortexes of young men
“The most profitable companies are going to be the ones tapping into an immature prefrontal cortex of an American male.”
Horowitz: Las Vegas Police reopened the Tupac murder investigation at my request
“So at the end of the dinner, I say to the chief of police, Mike Gennaro, I'm like, Mike, you ought to reopen the Tupac case, and he goes, I'll talk to the sheriff. And the next day I called me, I said, what did the sheriff say? He said, if Ben wants us to open…”
Puri: Functional robots will outnumber humans globally
“As soon as they have robots that can actually do functional work, they're gonna sell billions and billions. There's gonna be more robots than humans.”
Mazzeo: Human taste is not a durable moat against AI generation
“I think all these people who are, like, taste Is our salvation are going to get leased at all. It's going to hurt real. It's going to hurt real bad. They're going to run into the brick wall of consumer choice on taste.”
Lemkin: Traditional B2B SaaS interfaces and CRMs are going to die
“And when we're in ChatGPT 24 hours a day, we're not going to like pull up a CRM. We're not going to use the interfaces. Like these interfaces are all Already dying. You can see it, Sam. And then the amount of time you spend in GPT, like then go to like a B to …”
Lemkin: Unemployed tech workers rejected jobs under $200k requiring direct individual work
“Enough that I had like a micro connection that had been out of work for six months and I gave them jobs. All of them in the end basically said, I want to make 200 K or more only to do meetings or manage teams. None of them were willing to do any work themselve…”
O'Brien: Saronic's trajectory could deter China from invading Taiwan
“They're, you know, gonna make the South China Sea a hellscape and make China now wanna cross that that, that, that ocean and keep Taiwan safe if they keep going on the path they're doing”
Parr: Airbnb co-founder Joe Gebbia insisted to me that aliens are real
“Joe, look, You're worth, like, ten billion dollars. Like, if there's Illuminati, like, you are either in it, or you're friends with the people in it. Tell me one thing that, like, you guys talk about, and he looked at me, he goes, aliens are real.”
Dorsey Actively Tried to Prevent the Release of 'Hatching Twitter'
“Jack Dorsey did not want that book out and he was trying to do everything he could.”
Noah Glass Conceived Twitter Before Jack Dorsey Took the Credit
“That's what it becomes, and if you, if Jack Dorsey had told the real story about Twitter, that his best friend Noah Glass really was the one that came up with most of it, and he stole it, you know, from him, and like, and that, that place was a shit show, and …”
Dorsey Gave Ev Williams an Ultimatum to Fire Noah Glass
“Jack, Who is best friends with Noah goes into Ev's office one day and he says, either you get rid of Noah or I quit.”
Dorsey Fabricated Twitter's Firetruck Dispatch Origin Story After the Fact
“And as far as Ev knew, Jack had come up with the idea himself, you know, when he was a little kid listening to fire trucks. That was a story that was added later.”
Dorsey Reaped $12B While Twitter Co-Founder Noah Glass Got Nothing
“Jack is worth twelve billion dollars, give or take. Noah Glass is worth about a zero dollars, ok? He never got anything. Ev gave him something, and he had to live off that and whatnot. If you're worth twelve billion dollars, give the guy ten million.”
Wilkinson: Rolling Out Existing AI and Self-Driving Would Eliminate 20% of Jobs
“So if we just paused AI, we shut down all the AI labs and all we focused on was just rollout of what already exists. I think probably Between self-driving cars and AI agents, 20% of all current jobs are gone.”
Wilkinson: Software will commoditize as AI eliminates coding barriers
“And so my belief is basically that as more and more people don't need to learn how to code and can build software, software will become more and more commoditized. There'll be way more competition and it'll be a way harder world for software businesses.”
Means: Nine of the top ten US killers are diet-driven
“Nine out of 10 killers of Americans are foodborne illnesses. I mean, we can dance around it. It's just that simple. Like, you would wipe out heart disease, diabetes, kidney disease, respiratory illness, COVID deaths even, if you got our country metabolically m…”
Adcock: Hundreds of thousands of undetected guns enter US schools yearly
“Several 100,000 guns are being brought into schools in K to 12 every year in the U S and not found.”
Parr predicts there will eventually be more humanoid robots than humans
“I think this is so big that there's going to be more of these robots than there are humans.”
Galloway: GLP-1 weight-loss drugs are a bigger deal than GPT-4
“I think GLP-I is bigger than GPT-IV.”
Galloway: GLP-1 adoption could put entire hospital networks out of business
“Hospital networks, entire hospital networks could go out of business if they're really honest.”
Puri: An AI startup will beat legacy porn conglomerates
“Somebody's going to do, somebody's going to go after that market with AI. And I think they will win because again, way more powerful tool to satisfy demand, way lower cause and more ethical supply. That's a winning formula.”
Shkreli: Made his wealth in clinical drug development, not price hikes
“A lot of people think that I take medicines and raise prices. Well, this drug was barely in human beings. It had been in like 30 or 50 people. Helped up until that point. And, you know, I made most of my money in, in sort of developments in, in environment on …”
Ali: Bill Gurley yelled at founder over lost Andreessen Horowitz deal
“Friend of mine was raising money and got a term sheet from Andreessen Horowitz and Bill Gurley at Benchmark and went with the Andreessen Horowitz term sheet. And Bill Gurley was so mad that he called the founder up and like yelled at them for two hours. And se…”
Sam Parr: Elon Musk will face severe cancellation and Tesla will tank
“One, Elon Musk either dies or he or he gets canceled or he gets canceled in an incredibly like serious way. And Tesla stock completely tanks.”
Luckey: The New York Times published a fabricated quote of mine
“The New York times posted a quote for me that I literally never said. And I told them like, Hey, you said that I said this, I never said that. They said, well, it's more or less what you said. We don't think the meeting is different.”
Parr: Children born today will have more AI friends than humans
“Children born today are likely to have more AI friends than human friends. AI friends are going to be more reliable. I don't even know what that word, conciliatory. What's that mean? Agreeable and considerate. What does this mean? What does this mean for child…”
Tech salary inflation will reverse as remote hiring shifts overseas
“I think that this high salary inflation is not here to stay. I think what's happened is all these companies down in San Francisco are going, oh, crazy. We can hire cheap people in Canada, but they're not yet going, oh, hey, we can hire people in India and the …”
Puri: Lab-grown meat will make animal slaughter for food obsolete
“It's going to change because we're going to have a good substitute, which is lab grown meat. So people are going to be able to make, make the same steak you want without killing the animal. And then in that case, killing the animal is going to look absolutely …”
Helwani: Dana White tried to block my ESPN hiring before day one
“From the moment the news came out that I was signing, he was trying to get me to not even have day one at ESPN.”
Parr: Lambda School will likely go out of business by 2023
“I think my prediction if I had to bet money on it is that it won't work.”
Maples: Decentralized cloud societies will eventually function like future nation-states
“What I think happens at the limit is that all of these different cloud cultures are like their own societies.
And so right now the main, main organizing principle of society is the nation state, which is also an economies of scale centric model.
Right.
But if …”
Srinivasan: Very few pre-internet institutions will survive the internet
“I think very few institutions that predated the internet will survive the internet in the fullness of time.”
Balaji: On-chain skill badges will destroy the college diploma
“Now, why that kind of thing is important is it totally destroys the concept of a college diploma. The reason being college diploma is a very, very coarse grained you know, kind of illustration of somebody's skills.”
Balaji: Cryptography will displace corporate media as the font of truth
“And that is actually a very powerful thing where we start to actually displace a corporate media corporation as the font of truth with cryptography instead.”
Balaji: All finance will become crypto
“With CS and stats, by the way, you can understand finance, because it's crypto, or it'll all become crypto.”
Puri: Multinational oil companies used local intermediaries to bypass bribery laws
“Those companies couldn't get their hands dirty. They could not risk Bribing foreign like politicians. So what they did was they let this guy bribe the fallout foreign politicians, get the rights, and then they would cut a commercial deal with him.”
Saylor: Bitcoin will become a $10T primary global treasury reserve asset
“You know, people that understand Bitcoin think it's going to grow to become the 10 trillion dollar asset that gold is, and then it's going to replace negative yielding sovereign debt and then corporate debt and ultimately it will become the primary treasury re…”