The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 6,334 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 83 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Galloway: Investment returns inversely correlate with an industry's sexiness
“Your return on your invested capital is inversely correlated to how sexy and cool an industry sounds.”
Shaan Puri compounds millions in retail shopping center investments at 44% annually
“I'm basically compounding like 44% a year. And I get the tax benefits of real estate, and it's passive, and I don't like, and it's like retail, which everyone thinks is dead, there's, I think, less than four percent vacancy rates, like nationally.”
Galloway spends $400K monthly and needs $125M to feel economically secure
“I spend three to 400,000 dollars a month, so if you take that at five million times 25, I need one hundred and twenty-five million to be economically secure.”
A California wealth tax will drive out wealthy residents and founders
“I mean, all it'll do is just obviously going to drive the wealthiest people out, obviously drive the startup founders who want to get wealthy out, because why would you start here? And literally, like you know, strangle the golden goose of California.”
DeepMind is the reason OpenAI and ChatGPT exist
“DeepMind got bought by Google, and DeepMind is basically Google's AI play, and the DeepMind team, which was basically a research team that was building AI, is the reason that OpenAI exists. It is the reason that ChatGPT exists. It is the reason Elon is interes…”
AlphaGo's Move 37 was AI's first genuine creative breakthrough
“And in move 37, the computer does something, and right away the announcers are like,
oh my.
Oh, what is that?
And Lisa Dole, you can literally, they show him, like, sweating and thinking, and he's like, what the hell just happened?
They go, and they go, I thin…”
Horowitz: Founder hesitation on painful layoffs can destroy the company
“The level of like, you know, I was completely wrong about everything, and now I'm going to fire half of you because I, of the mistakes I made will just cause you to hesitate in a way that could cost you the company itself.”
Horowitz: Facebook Executives Attempted a Coup in 2007 to Force Yahoo Sale
“The Facebook traffic had flattened and
The current, the executive staff that he had at the time was trying to run a coup to force him to sell to Yahoo. So they were leaking all this stuff to Valleyrag at the time and Valleyrag was, you know, calling for Zuck t…”
Horowitz: Top Founders Like Zuckerberg and Musk Understand People Exceptionally Well
“The ones who truly
Don't understand people are, don't actually turn out to be good CEOs. Like they don't get to that level. Like you can, you know, you can make fun of Larry Page or Elon or Zuck or so forth, but they are actually very smart about people.”
Horowitz: AI video is a distinct creative medium, not just efficiency
“It's not like making the old thing more efficient. It's a new medium. It's an actual new thing in the same ways that like movies weren't plays. You know, AI video is not video. The stories that you can tell are completely different because you can do things th…”
Horowitz: a16z Employees Who Criticize Founders on X Are Fired
“If you if you talk smack about an entrepreneur on X, you're fired. It doesn't matter if they're in the portfolio or not. You're just, that's it.”
Horowitz: Jeff Bezos is a top two or three CEO of the last 40 years
“And by the way, like whatever, like, you know, people always make you into cartoon when you get to that level, he is, you know, for sure, like a top two or three best CEO in the last 40 years.”
50-year mortgages are a terrible idea for building home equity
“Trump wants to address the affordability crisis, which is a real problem. And said, what we should do is extend mortgages to 50 years. So you have 50 years to pay it off instead of 30 years. I think it's a terrible idea because basically what happens is you gi…”
Founders are pitching Trump administration connections as a core competitive advantage
“In the past, I'd never seen anybody pitch, like, a core part of their pitch as being, I'm close to administration. I've heard so many pitches about that now, which is kind of sad, honestly, but it is what it is.”
Brian Armstrong manipulated Polymarket odds during a Coinbase earnings call
“His team passed him a note and he goes, Oh, before we hang up here, I just would like to say web three crypto blockchain, Bitcoin, Ethereum. Thank you very much. And he just basically, he's like you know, just for all the prediction markets out there, you know…”
Puri: It takes 15 months to feel emotional love for a baby
“Took, it takes me like 15 months to love a baby. I care for the baby before then. I wish the baby well. I want no harm to be done to the baby, but do I crave, like, holding and touching and, like, you know, doing the things my wife loves about a baby?”
Parr: Startups outgrow brute-force execution at $3M revenue or $1M profit
“Honestly, it probably starts at three million in revenue where you're out of the brute force stage. And it depends on your business, but something like A million a year in profit, maybe. Where you're out of the brute force stage, and what happens next is actua…”
Bonforte: Only naive beginners and 20-year veterans succeed in venture capital
“We say freshmen and seniors make all the money in, in the venture business, like in the entrepreneur business. So you either don't know the rules. So you go into your business and you break a bunch of rules without knowing, or you know all the rules and you bu…”
Negreanu: Phil Ivey is the best all-around poker player in the world
“He's the best player poker player in the world as far as I'm concerned when you count all the games, and that's Phil Ivey.”
Puri: Sora will be the fastest app to reach 100M downloads
“I think this is going to be the most downloaded app in the history of the world in a short period of time. So I think it'll be like the fastest to get to a hundred million downloads.”
Puri: Sora will replicate Facebook's viral photo-tagging growth loop
“And if you remember one of the big growth levers for Facebook was when they introduced friend photo tagging. So they made it super easy where not just you could upload photos. That's a solar player experience, but when you could just click on somebody in the p…”
Sam Parr: OpenAI will be the biggest company on Earth within five years
“Because how is this company not going to take over the world and be the biggest company on earth?”
Sam Parr: OpenAI will combine Meta, Google, and the news media
“I just think that OpenAI is going to be, like, the combination of Facebook, Google, every news company ever, and then, like, five other companies combined into one.”
Guidara: Unreasonable hospitality generates better returns than traditional marketing
“Every dollar I ever spent on unreasonable hospitality was far more impactful than any dollar I ever spent on traditional marketing, because when you give them those stories to tell, what do you think they're gonna do? They're gonna tell them over and over and …”
Guidara: Running a $15M restaurant requires similar effort to a $5M restaurant
“It doesn't take that much more work to run a fifteen million dollar a year restaurant than it does a five million dollar a year restaurant.”
Puri: Alex Hormozi made $100M in one weekend from book launch
“His last book launch, he just did it about a month ago. His last book launch sold three million copies. And with all the add on courses he added to it, he made a hundred million dollars in a single weekend, a hundred million dollars as one guy.”
RV Parks Hedge Macroeconomic Cycles Better Than Traditional Residential Real Estate
“With a mobile home or an RV park, you don't maintain the units. You just maintain the infrastructure under the ground. It's a hedge against the economy. When the economy's good, the millennials and the boomers are traveling, you got short-term stays. When the …”
Braziel: Small capital bases in claims investing can reliably compound fast
“And then the claims work, I wouldn't say it's free money, but you can almost reliably compound your money on a small base, you know, like a few million bucks or something. You can Reliably compound that at pretty aggressive rates.”
Braziel: SBF gave FTX employees guaranteed 10-year million-dollar salary contracts
“I mean, Sam was giving out 10 year contracts to people, guaranteed 10 year pay contracts, you know, like million dollar contracts to like salary employees, a little bit like the, you know, like AI, you know, meta thing.”
Voss: Intentionally saying falsehoods elicits hidden information through irresistible correction
“The urge to correct is so irresistible that we actually use it as one of our negotiation skills. I'll say something wrong on purpose. Because you will not be able to resist the urge to correct me with the truth. And it's a great way for me to trigger getting h…”
Voss: Handing off to a new negotiator always signals a harder line
“No negotiation team, whether it's business or hostage, hands a negotiator off to another negotiator to be nicer.
Ever.
Business or hostage.
If there's a change in negotiation, negotiators on the other side, it is always to take a harder line.
Always.”
Chris Voss: Pre-planned 'must-haves' and 'giveaways' can be completely wrong
“Well, if they've got proprietary information that would change everything, then your must haves and your giveaways could be completely wrong.”
Voss: Driving for 'no' creates safety while seeking 'yes' creates friction
“Instead of, do you want to talk about what we're here for, which you're driving for yes, because that going for yes creates friction, but going for no creates protection and safety.”
Voss: Relying on leverage caps a negotiator at B-level performance
“I mean, you get yourself to B level negotiator there. You'll never get yourself to A plus on leverage. Cause leverage is the ability to inflict harm. And if you're making deals based on the ability to inflict harm, these are not, those don't go for stable long…”
Puri: Robinhood is prime beneficiary of generational wealth transfer
“And it's basically this financial super app that Gen Z slash millennials are most comfortable with. And as the wealth transfer happens, they're going to be the beneficiary of that. So I think next 20 years, they're extremely well positioned.”
Puri: Elon Musk will merge xAI into Tesla
“And then I also think, by the way, he's gonna end up merging XAI with Tesla. Like, he's gonna put it all together.”
Liu: Everyone should run their lab diagnostics through AI like ChatGPT
“I mean, I think, like, today, it's already better to, I mean, everybody should be taking all of their, you know, personal, like health diagnostics, you get a blood test or whatever, and, like, running that through ChatGPT, like, upload it, Asko three, like, He…”
Liu: AI coding agents create up to a $300 billion TAM
“I mean, today you might have, like, call it, thirty million developers. That's the number that Stripe always quotes. Maybe that actually will expand to like 50 to a hundred million developers. ... And then on top of that, like it would be perfectly rational fo…”
Liu: Agentic AI builders will replace legacy business software within years
“Every single business Should be creating apps this way and probably replacing is, you know over the next few years, like old legacy software with this.”
Shaan Puri: Pop Mart will crash after a 2-3 year peak
“And then it's going to crash because the funny thing with all of these is they all had about a two to three year peak tops. And so I think the actual play, if you want to make money on this thing is to short Pop Mart stock starting around you know, end of 20, …”
Parr: Surge AI did $1B in revenue with zero outside capital
“So this company is only five years old. And it's it was leaked that they did one billion dollars in revenue in the last 12 months. And this guy, Edwin Chen, he's only 37 years old, and he owns 100% of the company. They have not taken any outside funding.”
Puri: Human data labeling will become obsolete in 7-10 years
“Like, you know, this might be a business that I think in, like, seven to 10 years, you may not need this anymore. Like, it seems like the way AI is going, you may not need this kind of human in the loop to label all this data.”
Puri: Autonomous vehicles will completely eliminate truck and ride-hail driving jobs
“The next one is labor, so right now there's three and a half million truck drivers alone, let alone all of the, like, Uber and taxi drivers, and you're just not gonna need that job.”
Koerner: Compounding works whether pursuing a single project or multiple ventures
“Focus is overrated because compounding doesn't care. Like the principle of compounding does not care if we're working on one thing or a dozen things. As long as we stay in the game, whatever that game is for us and keep going, compounding is just going to keep…”
Puri: The best employees will work for millions of companies via agents
“Right, and they can, and just like the best teachers have millions of students, the best employees now actually work for millions of companies is what, what's gonna end up happening.”
Lemkin: Enterprise AI software will shock users within 24 months
“This is why your jaw is going to drop over the next 24 months, because just mediocre engineers cannot, like the engineers at OpenAI are so good. They're just so good. And so, but the average engineer working at a struggling CRM, right, it's just not that, that…”