why aren't all 213 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Assertion Contradicted
Parr: The DARPA Grand Challenge marked the first automotive lidar application
“And that's when the first time we ever used a lidar, which is a type of self-driving technology that all the cars or many of the cars have, it was already existed, but it was applied to cars for the first time ever.”
Assertion Contradicted
Parr: Alcohol and opioids are the only drugs with lethal withdrawals
“A lot of people don't talk about this, but with alcohol, but I'm pretty sure there's only two drugs you can die from if you try to do it on your own and you could have withdrawals and die and that's alcohol and opioids.”
Assertion Contradicted
Draw Something peaked at 25 million daily active users
“On a DAU basis, we had at least twenty-five million people playing every day which was gigantic at that time. We ultimately were downloaded two hundred and fifty million times.”
Assertion Contradicted
Puri: Card counting no longer provides an edge in casinos
“Casinos use six decks, and they use auto shufflers now, and so the ability for the deck to get really hot has been cut down dramatically, and so, you know, they basically use six decks, which will smoothen out the variance, and then they auto shuffle, and they…”
Assertion Contradicted
Puri: Alex Schultz said localization was Facebook's biggest growth driver
“He goes, the biggest growth driver in Facebook's growth bar none was when we localized the service, which he's like, was not easy.”
Assertion Contradicted
Shaan Puri: South Korean men's beauty market nears parity with women's
“Basically, like, in Korea, I think men's beauty products are, like, you know, on par or close to on par with women's beauty products.”
Assertion Contradicted
Giffon: The Top 10% of Philosophy Majors Out-Earn Every Other Major
“My favorite stat about philosophy majors is that it's something like in the top 10% of earners, they're the highest earning of all people. So if you take the top 10% of every major, they're the highest earning.”
Assertion Contradicted
Pompliano: Eight Sleep operates with 85 employees and is profitable
“They have only like a 80 or 85 employees. I believe that they've publicly said that the company's been profitable and they're selling a hardware product plus all of the software.”
Assertion Contradicted
Steven Rinella's outdoor brand MeatEater generated $100 million in 2023 revenue.
“Now in 2023, they announced that they did a hundred million in revenue from selling all of the products on meat eater.com of which his kind of claim to fame, or at least where he gets a lot of the traffic from is his books and then his podcasts and things like…”
Assertion Contradicted
DuckDuckGo is a more popular US website than Yahoo, Wikipedia, and Twitter
“It's more popular than Yahoo and Wikipedia and Twitter.”
Assertion Contradicted
Woodworking Creator Brand KM Tools Generates Around $50M Annually
“I bet you he does fifty million a year on, so it's called KM Tools, I think, right? Yeah, KM Tools. I bet you this does in the fifty million range.”
Assertion Contradicted
Parr: Membership site acquisition multiples are around five times profit
“I think the multiples on the membership sites are like five times profit.”
Assertion Contradicted
Puri: Homeschooling has grown 40% to 50% annually for three consecutive years
“So it's now the 2023 data is out and homeschooling has grown. I think like 40 or 50% a year, year over year for three straight years.”
Assertion Contradicted
Parr: Share of sexually inactive teens jumped from 11% to 21%
“It rose from 11% to 21% of teens that do not have sex, that, that haven't had sex in the last year.”
Assertion Contradicted
Parr: Most GLP-1 users pay $500 to $1,000 monthly out of pocket
“Most people using it now are just paying 500 to a thousand dollars a month.”
Assertion Contradicted
Itzler: Marquis Jet generated close to $200M in first-year sales
“Year one, we did, I think we did like close to two hundred million in sales year one.”
Assertion Contradicted
Coogan: Soylent reached peak revenue of almost $100 million
“Like almost a hundred mil.”
Assertion Contradicted
The Wall Street Journal did not update its website intraday in 2007
“The Wall Street Journal and Businessweek at the time did not, basically did not update their websites during the day.”
Assertion Contradicted
Puri: Obama-era tax rules allow a 100% upfront write-off on film budgets
“So what Obama did was he changed the rules, I believe during his time. To say, you can write off a hundred percent of a film's cost before they even make the film, before the money's spent on that film, just on the budget.”
Assertion Contradicted
Slow-wave sleep produces 95% of the body's human growth hormone
“Slow-wave sleep is when your body produces 95% of its human growth hormone. So just think about that for a second. 95% of your human growth hormone gets produced during this stage of sleep.”
Assertion Contradicted
Bryan Johnson offers his personal longevity protocol to the public for $2M/year
“Well, it just released that, or it was just released that you can spend, I think like A lot like a 1.5 or two million dollars a year. And you basically can, he's gonna like anyone can use his doctors and go through his system in order to what he's trying to do…”
Assertion Contradicted
Amouranth Claims She Brought Hot Tub Streaming Indoors and Popularized It
“I think I was the first one to bring it inside my room and I really popularized that one.”
Assertion Contradicted
Holiday: BookScan excludes sales from author-owned bookstores
“The Wall Street Journal or BookScan, which is owned by Nielsen, just flat out told me they just don't include sales from stores owned by the author anymore”
Assertion Contradicted
Parr: McKinsey study shows 105% bonus targets outperform 90% targets
“I was reading this McKenzie study,
Where they said you actually should give bonuses based on a 105% performance, not just 90% performance.
And research shows that if you over attain to in order to get a bonus, people tend to do that versus the other way around…”
Assertion Contradicted
Adobe acquired Behance for $175M with Belsky owning roughly 70%
“Behance, his company sold, I think for a hundred and seventy five million dollars. And I think he owned, he told me around 70% of it.”
Assertion Contradicted
The Art of Charm generated $10M a year hosting social bootcamps
“And so they were making, if I remember correctly, ten million dollars a year hosting these.”
Assertion Contradicted
Cuts and Fresh Clean Tees scaled to $100M+ revenue in four years
“So like there's some brands like cuts and fresh clean teas. These brands have scaled to like A hundred million plus in revenue in, I don't know, three or four years.”
Assertion Contradicted
Walling: 20% to 25% of Bootstrapped SaaS Startups Lack Technical Founders
“We actually asked, so we do a state of independent SAS survey, and we put out a report, like an industry report, and we asked the question, Do you have at least one technical founder? Right? Or, you know, and yes or no, right? And the number of SaaS companies,…”
Assertion Contradicted
Silk Road processed $10B in transaction volume in today's dollars
“Silk Road got famous because they had something like if you do like today's dollar it basically made Bitcoin popular because it was like eBay for drugs and something like ten billion dollars went through it in only two years since he started it.”
Assertion Contradicted
Silk Road initially accounted for 75% of Mt. Gox's transaction volume
“So the reason why they suspected it was Mt. Gox was when they started, it accounted for like 75% of Mt. Gox's business.”
Assertion Contradicted
23andMe's primary business model is selling data to pharma companies
“And I think 23 and me, their business model is to sell your data, right? Like, I think that is the core business model is they sell it to pharmaceutical companies for you know, like the research or whatever.”
Assertion Contradicted
Puri: Fast-casual chains piggyback on Chipotle's location research to open restaurants
“Chipotle puts like, you know, billions of dollars into picking the right location. Why don't we just go right next to where every Chipotle is? And we're, and that's actually the strategy that's that Quiznos and a whole bunch of other brands had used. Noodles a…”
Assertion Contradicted
Puri: Comedian Dane Cook Found Early Fame Through P2P Bait-And-Switch Hacks
“He created files that would say like Chris Rock stand up, or it'd be like, you know, Dave Chappelle or Eddie Murphy best stand up. And it would be four minutes of Chris Rock and Eddie Murphy. And then the next 56 minutes would just transition to Dane Cook... A…”
Assertion Contradicted
Puri: NerdWallet never spent any of its $100M funding round
“NerdWallet, same thing, right? They started, they ended up raising a hundred million dollars, never touched the hundred million dollars. Like their bank accounts never been less than a hundred million dollars since then.”
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Parr: Zapier can reach a $50B valuation within five years
“Can it be worth 50? Yeah, definitely. Keep in mind, we're talking about like five years from today.”
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Puri: Strip Mall Guy will hit 100K Twitter followers within six months
“By the way, he's at 22,000 followers now. He's at
I bet you he's at a hundred in less than six months.”
Assertion Contradicted
Parr: Office water dispenser company Bevi is worth one billion dollars
“It's like a billion dollar company.”
Assertion Contradicted
Puri: Annual construction material costs exceed twice total e-commerce spending
“You know, the, just the material cost for construction is twice the amount annually of all of e-commerce.
So it's like,
Humongous market.
It's a multi, it's a trillion dollar plus market of just the of just material construction costs.”
Assertion Contradicted
Houzz generates approximately $1 billion annually from affiliate fees
“Houzz is probably, the audience is probably majority women. It's a you basically can design your kitchen or your bedroom on house, and they make like a billion dollars a year through affiliate fees.”
Assertion Contradicted
Puri: UFC Cuts Bruce Buffer Catchphrases From Archives to Avoid Royalty Payments
“And actually, if you go watch Like, the back catalog of UFC fights, they cut out Bruce Buffer's it's time part, because they don't want to pay him the royalty on it's time.”
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Puri: Peak will reach $100M in sales within three years
“I think there'll be I think there'll be at a hundred million in sales in the next three years. That's my prediction, my bet.”
Assertion Contradicted
Puri: Bebo became the top app in Europe using Steven Bartlett's network
“We used him early on when he was, you know, we brought him on and he was part of my team. We used him and we became the number one app in the UK, number one app in Europe, because we used his like network to like talk about our app.”
Assertion Contradicted
Wilkinson: Gilbert committed $300M to pay Detroit residents' property taxes
“And he also just announced that he's going to pay off three hundred million dollars of property taxes for Detroit residences.”
Assertion Contradicted
Parr: Gallup Generates Between $1B and $2B Annually
“The company makes about A billion or two billion dollars a year. It's privately owned. It's probably one of the largest privately owned companies in America, like top 200, and they have a quiz. So if you Google StrengthsFinder's quiz, it's a 29 dollar or 49 do…”
Assertion Contradicted
Parr: Airbnb Was Profitable in 2019
“And I think they're also profitable in 2019. This is all public information.”
Assertion Contradicted
Tony Hawk: Foundation has contributed to nearly 1,000 skate parks
“It's getting close to a thousand that we have contributed to.”
Assertion Contradicted
Danny Yeung: Groupon HK reached $200M in annual revenue by 2014
“I left in 2014. We're doing about two hundred million annual revenues.”
Assertion Contradicted
Yeung: Prenetics became top COVID PCR provider in Hong Kong and UK
“We then became Hong Kong's number one COVID PCR provider, as well as in the UK.”