The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 537 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 69 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Jess Mah predicts longevity advances will extend human lifespans past 120
“And then what's also realistic, I think, is extending our lives by 30%. I think we need to be prepared to live till we're a 120 or longer.”
Pompliano: Kim Kardashian will become US President one day
“I think she's going to be president of the United States one day.”
Pompliano: Startups will use computer vision to automate municipal fine enforcement
“So I think there's going to be an entire rise of businesses that just use computer vision to do the same thing. Like anything that can be automated will be automated rather than have humans with their lazy eyes walking around, just have computers that constant…”
AI companionship and adult chat products will become massive businesses
“And so there's something in this space that's like ranges from companionship to naughty chat that like with AI, that's going to be massive because the numbers are off the charts, the behavior Of this strange thing is off the charts.”
Meta will replace Zoom as the largest work platform in 10-15 years
“In 10 to 15 years, Facebook is gonna be, Facebook, like, Meta is gonna own the largest work platform, so I think that they're gonna be the Zoom, the whatever, because this experience where it looks like you could feel like you're in the same room as a person, …”
India's fitness and supplement industry will become 10x larger than America's
“If fitness is now the thing, if getting shredded is now the thing, the whole supplements and fitness industry that we have here is going to translate over there. It's going to be rebuilt overnight and it's going to be 10 times bigger, right?”
Adcock: Humanoid home robots will eventually cost several hundred dollars monthly
“We're seeing here is we're seeing the ability to get these robots over time with a high enough volumes cheaper than like a mid price card. And then if that robot can last four or five years before it's fully depreciated the cost should be pretty affordable for…”
Adcock predicts Figure will be valued higher than Cruise and Waymo
“I happen to think this business is probably valued bigger than Cruise and Waymo, which are like, these are a thirty billion dollar free revenue companies.”
Adcock: Figure will deploy commercial robots with major brands within 24 months
“And I think we can do these over the next like 24 months. We'll have robots in commercial. Applications with like some of the world's biggest brands.”
Parr: OpenAI will crush startups building on its API
“I'm nervous about people building businesses right now on top of open AI because I'm like, they're just going to crush everyone and just do it themselves.”
Samir Chaudry: MrBeast will be the biggest digital media company by 2028
“I think he's probably the number one online digital media company. I don't know that, you know, I don't know what creator is going to mean in that many years. Like, I think he has the best pulse on, on online storytelling right now. And I think, you know, we s…”
Manson: Creator Economy Economics and Distribution Will Beat Traditional Media in 10 Years
“The economics of the creator economy are fundamentally better. The distribution is miles better. You have, like, complete ownership. There's complete creative freedom. Like, I just don't see how this doesn't end up ahead in 10 years.”
Parr: Admit Yogi founder should reject VC and bootstrap to an exit
“I think if I'm in your position, I wouldn't raise money. And I think that by the time you're 30 years old, you can be worth hundreds of millions of dollars because you own a business that makes 30 or forty million bucks that potentially you could sell for a hu…”
Shah: OpenAI is the startup most likely to reach $1T valuation
“It, it'd be up there in the top three. I honestly can't think of who else would rank higher in terms of probability of getting to that.”
Shah: Prompt-driven text-to-video with director styles will arrive in 2023
“I would not be surprised, let's say by the end of this year, that we have a reasonable way to kind of describe in textual form what we want, who the characters are, what the scene is what kind of stylistic attributes we want. We can point it to, oh, I want thi…”
Puri: Hampton will generate $100M+ revenue and reach up to $1B valuation
“I will predict and guarantee really that this is going to be a greater than a hundred million dollar a year revenue business, which means it's going to be worth something like low end, 304 hundred million, high end billion dollars.”
Sam Parr: OpenAI will face government regulation in 2023
“The second thing is so open, I open AI. Something involving regulation is going to happen.”
Rose: AI will write 90% of a New York Times bestseller by 2027
“I have no doubt in the next five years we'll see a New York Times bestseller that was 90% written by AI.”
Luckey: Bitcoin will reach around $100,000 and then stabilize
“My prediction in 2013 was that Bitcoin will go to about a 100,000 dollars and then stabilize. I'm sticking with it. I think it'll get there. I'm not sure that it in particular has the appropriate utility to reach a higher store of value.”
Puri: Developers will scrape Spotify to train open-source AI music models
“Somebody's about to do that for music. They're about to download all the music. They're about to go download all the music off Spotify. And then they're going to train an engine to say, Hey, create new music. This is what music is. Create new music. And that's…”
Market Panic Will Let Cash Buyers Acquire Businesses at 20-30% Yields
“You're about to enter an environment where anyone with cash who has a large sum of cash is going to be able to buy a business at say a 20 or a 30% earnings yield, meaning you can buy a business and pay yourself back in two or three years, maybe five years, and…”
Tech equity granted in 2022 could reach eight figures in a decade
“I think now's the time where you can get some of these offers where you're getting paid a 102 103 100,000 dollars a year in equity, and that could be worth potentially eight figures in 10 years.”
Shaan Puri: Most future internet content will be auto-generated by AI
“Like it's not unreasonable that like most of the content you read on the internet is just going to be written by computers. Like you're going to go on Twitter. It's just going to be auto-generated content from brands and people that are, you know, just pluggin…”
Walling: TinySeed will generate venture-like returns from $10M–$100M outcomes
“I don't think we will have a billion dollar outcome. I just don't see that being reasonable. I think we'll have a lot of 10 to 50, 10 to a hundred million dollar outcomes, and the number, we've run a bunch of models, and in fact, if you go to tinyc.com slash t…”
Crypto hype is peaking and will face a major disillusionment phase
“I think we're right at like the top of the initial hype cycle for crypto. We're going to hit like a big Like disillusionment period where a lot of people are going to leave the space and then it will find its footing and find some legitimate uses a few years f…”
Shaan Puri predicts Miss Excel will hit $100 million annual sales
“I think she's gonna get to my bold prediction. She's gonna get to a hundred million dollars in sales... A year.”
Parr: Lack of screen time will become the ultimate status symbol
“My opinion is what it's going to be is a lack of screen time. So not like it's gonna be like, oh, you use a computer? No, I don't know. I don't use it.”
Al-Naji: The next crypto wave will be creator coins after NFTs
“This wave was about NFTs. I think the next wave is going to be about creator coins, also known as social tokens.”
Shaan Puri: Successful decentralized social network will be a multi-trillion-dollar project
“And I think it's gonna be a huge project. I think it is gonna be a multi-trillion dollar project Whenever it works.”
Puri: Antitrust enforcement will prevent Facebook from acquiring emerging rival networks
“So the next one that takes off, Facebook can't buy, and that will, because of antitrust, and so they're just gonna lose their stranglehold because that was their previous way of, like, extending their lifespan was to acquire the next best social thing and brin…”
Puri: Rippling is the top candidate to 30x to 50x in valuation
“And so I think rippling is one that if you told me this, 30 to 50 X's, I'd say of the things we've said on this list, that might be the number one candidate so far.”
Puri: Thrasio will go public at a $10B valuation
“They're going to go public at a ten billion dollar valuation.”
Parr: Eight Sleep will end up worth less than capital raised
“I think that for eight sleep, I, and I think that that is a good valuation for Casper. I'm on board with that. Because it's really hard to do. I think that that is what's going to happen to Eight Sleep.”
Parr: Live Courses Cannot Be Maven's Long-Term Core Business
“I don't think it's gonna work to do live courses. I don't think are gonna have, it can't be their bread and butter. It's just gotta be how they get into the market. That's my prediction, but we'll see.”
Sam Parr: Clubhouse Likely Will Not Pan Out
“Clubhouse likely won't pan out, but that was definitely an opportunity to have one.”
Shah predicts natural language processing will be a bigger mega-trend than mobile
“And all we really need is a translation layer, and so this is a broad-based, in my mind a mega trend to be, which is, In my mind, bigger than mobile.”
Zoom's successor will replace live video with photorealistic digital avatars
“I think that the future zoom, like the leapfrog of zoom is not zoom with slightly better features or the recording is better. The audio quality is a little better. It's, this is a video call where I don't actually have to be on video, but it looks like I'm on …”
Puri: Next trillion-dollar Apple equivalent will be a healthcare monitor
“I don't think the next Apple is a phone company. I think the next Apple, which is gonna be a trillion dollar company that has that's gives you kind of like a consumer device. I think it's going to be a healthcare monitor. I think it's gonna be something that i…”
Puri: Next Facebook successor will be hands-free wearable camera glasses
“I think the next Facebook is not going to be an app. It's not going to be another social network. It's going to be some kind of hands-free, always on camera. So it's going to be something you wear, either glasses or a lapel or something, a fucking drone that's…”
Maples: Software-defined network companies will continuously displace legacy industrial firms
“And so in sector after sector of our economy, the companies that are software defined at their core, I believe software defined network centric companies at their core are going to keep winning. And they're going to keep displacing the companies that think of …”
Marc Lore: Retail search engines will be obsolete in 20 years
“The idea of like search engine, 20 years from now is going to be laughably like the cassette tape. It's like, wait, so dad used to like go, you wanted to buy a toast and you typed in toaster in this like search engine and you had 10,000 responses and you had t…”
Crypto Will Rebuild All Traditional Financial Infrastructure
“You're going to see All the existing use, like financial infrastructure get rebuilt over here in crypto land, and then some new shit that didn't exist in the real world that you can do in crypto land will get built.”
Balaji: Crypto and ENS names will be third top communication channel in 5-10 years
“I do think that within five to 10 years, in addition to email and text message, your ENS name will become probably the, ENS name, or let's say crypto name, will become the third most popular communication channel.”
Balaji: Most value will be created online and printed via robotics this decade
“What I think is going to happen is most of the value will be created online
and you'll print it out by essentially invoking robotics. And I think that's the next, you know, this decade, we're going to see more and more of that.”
Balaji: 2020s will bring startup cities and 2030s network states
“I think it's a 20 year project, and you know, basically my one liner on this is, 2000 were the tech companies, 20 tens, crypto protocols, 20 twenties, startup cities, 20 thirties, network states. Okay. So, company, protocol, city, state. I think that's where w…”
Balaji: Startup Cities in 2021 Are the Analog of 2010 Bitcoin
“Obviously when I said 2000, tech companies, 20 tens, crypto protocols, 20, 20 startup cities, 20 thirties, network states, that's sort of when that exponential starts, right? What is the analog of Bitcoin in 2010? It's startup cities in 2021.”