The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 3 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Prediction Held up
Khosla: Frontier AI compute costs will drop 80-90% within a year
“My bet is, a year from now, it'll cost one-fifth to one-tenth of what it does today, and my advice to all our startups is ignore the cost of compute, because any assumption you make, any dollar you spend on optimizing your software will be worthless within the…”
Vinod Khosla Dec 27, 2024 ▶ 45:00 #79: The More or Less Holiday Special Pt. 1 (AI Highlights) · More or Less Podcast
Prediction Held up
Khosla: AI inference costs will drop up to 10x by June 2025
“I think what will happen is the expensive PhD will become dirt cheap. My bet is a year from now, it'll cost one-fifth to one-tenth of what it does today.”
Vinod Khosla Jun 14, 2024 ▶ 7:38 #51: Vinod Khosla on What to Build in AI · More or Less Podcast
Assertion Partly supported
Khosla: Portfolio company Zordi operates fully automated, human-free strawberry greenhouses
“We have a greenhouse that's fully automated, including picking the strawberries, which would be hard to do by hand. And they sell at like five times the price in every New York restaurant prices them at like five bucks a strawberry or something. But there are …”
Vinod Khosla Jun 14, 2024 ▶ 37:05 #51: Vinod Khosla on What to Build in AI · More or Less Podcast
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