The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 396 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 16 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Brit Morin: Deel CEO allegedly recruited Rippling employee as paid spy
“Keith O'Brien, who was the man allegedly spying for deal while working at Rip Lane had to
Put out an affidavit today, and he basically, like, came forward and just was like, all right, here's the truth.
Alex, how do you pronounce his name?
Boise, Boise, the CE…”
Morin: Anthropic is raising at an $800B valuation
“And Anthropic this week, I heard, is also now raising at an eight hundred billion.”
Brit Morin: Tesla Robotaxis Will Deploy Instantly Once Legalized
“It's gonna be so pervasive that they're self-driving cars. Actually self-driving on all the roads instantly as soon as it's legal to do so.”
Morin: Frontier AI labs run opposition research teams planting hit stories
“There's truly oppositional research teams inside each company that I've now heard about for probably five to 10 times, like for different stories and companies that have been planted by the other. And it's like the nastiest PR setting I've seen in all of tech.…”
Brit Morin: Half of Bay Area engineers face unemployment within three years
“Well, you and I said half of the software engineers that are employed right now It in the Bay area will not be employed three years from now.”
Brit Morin: 85% of Grok Images Are Nude or Sex-Related
“Grok, no, Grok, the AI platform, not the one that offline was part of, who just raised more money, by the way. 85% of the images that it's producing right now are nude or sex related.”
Britt Morin: Superintelligence is coming within five to seven years
“I mean, superintelligence is coming in the next five to seven years.”
Brit Morin: Deel espionage was coordinated via Telegram with 'The Watchman'
“Also, they had a telegram channel where they were discussing the payments, and.
Wait, who was?
Okay, it's Keith, it's the spy.
How much did they pay for the telegram, Brett?
I know, telegram, not signal.
It's the spy, it's the CEO, and then there's a third per…”
Brit Morin: Anthropic CEO Claims AI Will Write Nearly All Code in 12 Months
“The CEO of Anthropix said, he said, In the next three to six months, AI is probably gonna be able to write 90% of all code. And in 12 months, nearly all code may be generated by AI.”
Britt Morin: Microsoft, Sequoia, and Thrive failed OpenAI board diligence
“Frankly, I'm surprised that Microsoft and Sequoia and Thrive, like didn't do more board diligence when they were investing all this money to figure out like this board was like not adequate for the type of company that this has become.”
Brit Morin: Target knocked off Brit & Co products with private labels
“Brit and co had a lot, had many lines with target and what happened target hired a new chief merchandising officer targets, bottom line started hurting. So they decided to go private label for like half of the products they formerly were buying and just kind o…”
Meta's settlement drops teen daily limit to one hour if competitors agree
“For that two hour time limit, it will be reduced to a one hour daily limit if TikTok, Snap, and YouTube also agree.”
Brit Morin: Women should microdose testosterone
“I'm convinced women should be microdosing testosterone.”
Morin: AI progress is now linear, not exponential
“I'm just saying it's evolutionary, not revolutionary at this point. It's linear, not exponential.”
Brit Morin: Frontier AI lab revenues will shift significantly over the next 6-12 months
“And I think you'll start to see the revenues shifting quite a bit over the next six to 12 months.”
Federal Reserve data shows US AI adoption growth flattened recently
“Did you guys see that the fed introduced their latest data about AI adoption growth and it's actually been flat or linear, nearly flat for the last three months.”
Meta is tracking all employee computer activity and keystrokes
“Meta now tracking everything its employees do and all the keystrokes that they do on their computers.”
Morin: Uber and Meta rank engineers by token usage leaderboards
“Uber and Meta are actually doing on leaderboards right now in their engineering departments.”
Morin: VC fund math should prioritize fund allocation percentage over equity ownership
“At the end of the day, like what I've come to is like, it just has to be what percentage of the fund is going in rather than what percentage of equity you're getting out of these companies, right?”
Morin: Anthropic cut off OpenClaw access for Claude Pro and Max users
“And days later, Anthropic announced that they are shutting off access for Claude Pro and Max users who are Open Call users to use their product.”
Brit Morin: One-person AI startup Pulsia hit $2M ARR in two weeks
“We have this company, I think we mentioned last week called Pulsia. That's just like on a tear right now as a one person company. That's gotten from, like, zero to two million ARR in two weeks, and, like, the agent is just running the company.”
Brit Morin: Andreessen Horowitz and Thrive are raising from the Middle East, not universities
“Andreessen Horowitz and Thrive are raising from, like, the Middle East, and not necessarily, like, universities at this point.”
Brit Morin: Solo-founder AI company Pulsia hit $700K ARR in one week
“This founder is a sole founder. He has no team. He just booted up all these agents to build this business. And if you go to polsia.com slash live, it's the agents running the business in real time, showing you everything they're doing. And this company has gon…”
Britt Morin: Software engineer headcount will shrink as AI agents multiply output
“I think more people overall will be building software, but the number of actual software engineers will need to go down because one great engineer can do the work of many engineers and their job will likely be to like manage and oversee some of these software …”
Brit Morin predicts Apple will acquire a major AI company like Anthropic
“Speaking of Apple, I think they come back next year, both in the AI realm, like they're going to make either one big acquisition, like an topic.”
Brit Morin: Returns for startup founders 45 and older beat younger cohorts
“But statistically, the returns of founders that are like, 45 and up, they're so much higher than those like 20 to 35.”
Britt Morin: Donald Trump's AI policy bans state regulation for a decade
“He's banning states from actually getting into any AI regulations over the next decade. He's centralizing federal control over AI regulation.”
Britt Morin: 31% of teens find AI companions as satisfying as friends
“31% of teenagers now are saying that their conversations with AI companions are as satisfying or more satisfying than talking with real friends.”
Britt Morin: Half of teenagers talk to an AI companion every day
“Half of teens are talking to their AI companion every day.”
Britt Morin: AI monetization is heading toward commerce and affiliate models
“I truly think commerce and affiliate are really where this is all headed and open AI announced this week that it's like starting to create a new payment checkout system into the chat bot. And that basically merchants that fulfill the orders are going to have t…”
Brit Morin: Tech companies should use sports-style trading windows for hiring
“I think we should be coordinating, and I think there should be term limits, and there should be, you know, you're in your trading window.”
Meta is in talks to partially buy out Nat Friedman's NFDG
“As part of those talks, Meta's in discussions about partially buying out NFDG, the person said. And NFDG is a billion dollar AUM firm.”
Brit Morin: Humanity will put infrastructure on Mars within 10 years
“I think in the next 10 years, not that we're all gonna go to Mars, but that we are gonna make significant progress in the next 10 years to learn more about Mars, put some sort of infrastructure on Mars.”
Grok Built a Competitive Model for Barely Half of OpenAI's $20B Spend
“Twelve billion has gone into Grok, and OpenAI, you have to sort of discount the Microsoft dollars, because a lot of it's for compute, but an estimated twenty billion. Into open AI. So, you know, almost double what Grok has used to build a very similar, if not …”
Brit Morin: Apple will be 2025's tech company of the year
“Apple usually is the last to come in with the innovation. So I think 20, 25, my prediction is Apple is the company of the year.”
Brit Morin: Seed investors said they would pass on OpenAI's round
“The last thing I'll say about this conversation we also had last night was that the Question was asked, like, would you have invested in OpenAI's hundred billion all around? And it was actually a resounding no. And like, you know, the tenor of these investors …”
Morin: WhatsApp will win the AI era because it has real communities
“I've been thinking that, like, WhatsApp actually ends in the most success in social with all of this AI stuff, because they're actually real communities.”
Reid Hoffman and Peter Thiel had a legitimate falling out
“What we probably didn't call was that Reid Hoffman and Peter Thiel would have a legit falling out, and that would be the talk of the conference, right?”
Brit Morin: Not Many People Left X During Musk's Transition
“We thought the moment of time would be perfect if Elon really messed up the Twitter to X transition, but I don't think many people left X.”
Brit Morin: Venture Capital Drives Premature Expansion and Startup Failure
“Taking venture capital inherently makes you think that you need to expand faster. And I think is the downfall for a lot of companies”
Brit Morin: Brex's $12.3 billion valuation is at least 3x overinflated
“I think their valuation is like at least three X Overinflated, like, 12.3 billion.”
Brit Morin: The AI platform race will end with Apple and Google winning again
“I think it ends up being Apple and Google all over again, to be honest, at the end of the day.”
Britt Morin: More VC Firms Will Shut Down and Consolidate in 2024
“I think that we're going to see more of that happen over the next 12 months. And more consolidation.”
Britt Morin: AI productivity gains will drive continued corporate layoffs
“The last one I'll say is that I do think AI layoffs will continue happening in earnest. Like, I think people will start to have layoffs because of the productivity structures of their workforces.”
Morin: Google Gemini Achieved 90% on MMLU, Beating Human Experts
“The essence of Gemini is, is this idea of multi-modality AI and the idea that it's now finally 90% Of sort of capability, and it outperforms humans. So the human percentage was, 86.4% as far as the human expert scale. Gemini is now 90%, and they call it”
Morin: Microsoft, Sequoia, and Thrive failed diligence on OpenAI's board
“I don't think a lot of people are recognizing like he like hit a Hail Mary and he was Screwed. And like, frankly, I'm surprised that Microsoft and Sequoia and Thrive, like didn't do more board diligence when they were investing all this money to figure out lik…”