The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 88 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 88 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Brit Morin predicts adult GLP-1 adoption will reach 33% by 2026
“By next year, I think it's almost double. I think it's at least one in three, like, 33%.”
Brit Morin: Taylor Swift will release an album and announce pregnancy in 2026
“Is not only is she getting married, which we know, she will have one new album, and she will announce her pregnancy by the end of the year.”
Lessin: OpenAI is currently overvalued, but will not go to zero
“Well, I guess I'd short it beyond, like, to some degree, you know, below its current valuation. Yes. But I would not, it's not going to zero. It's not going to zero.”
Landesberg: Seneca drones cover 30 square miles in sub-10 minutes
“Our aircraft covered 30 square miles. So you could cover a 30 square mile area in sub 10 minute response time with effectively a full engine's worth of suppression payload.”
Taylor Swift will retire from music by age 40
“Yeah, I think she retires by 40, she does her 13 albums, she owns all of them, she makes billions of dollars, she marries Travis, the Chiefs win the Super Bowl, like she does one last final tour, and then she's like, cool, and that was my music career,”
Jessica Lessin: Anthropic will probably IPO before OpenAI
“I think Anthropic probably does it before OpenAI because they need it more, right? So if you put the need before, although I think Google and Amazon will continue to fund them.”
Jessica Lessin: Prioritizing Repeat Founders Biases Demographics to a Decade Ago
“When investors use the lens of repeat founders, which economically might be the right lens, historically, that shifts the demographics of the founders to the people who were founders, you know, 10 years ago.”
Lessin: JPMorgan will inevitably allow customers to hold Bitcoin
“It seems inevitable that JP Morgan will let you hold Bitcoin inside.”
Morin: Texas passed a law requiring OS-level age verification
“Texas, you know, passed a law this week requiring age verification at the operating system level”
Sam Lessin: Relaunched Digg cannot sustain ads, will rely on crypto
“They're gonna be so subscale. They're not gonna have an advertising model. It's gonna be like some sort of fucking coin bullshit thing. Like there's, you can't build an advertising model.”
Jessica Lessin: Alibaba and Chinese Government Proposed Investing in DeepSeek
“The information did break the news today that Alibaba and the Chinese government are proposing that they invest in DeepSeq.”
Sam Lessin: Chinese tech firms will reincorporate in Mexico to evade bans
“You're just gonna end up exactly what we already have in the physical world, where basically, you'll just have laundering through Mexico, right? Where, like, all the Chinese internet companies will become Mexican internet companies that Chinese people have to …”
Jessica Lessin: TikTok is not going away in the US
“So, you know, I don't think it's going away. I'm more confident in that by the day.”
Sam Lessin: Carta will relaunch secondary trading in two to three years
“They're going to wait two to three years until everyone forgets. And then they'll do it again. This is not over. They're just going to wait two to three years.”
Sam Lessin: Market reaction to SEC crypto lawsuits is a 'nothing burger'
“Bitcoin's down. I'm looking right now in the last week, two percent. ETH is down a percent. Like, this is kind of a big nothing burger from how the crypto markets are digesting it, right?”
Agentic commerce integrated directly inside Gmail will become a reality
“Cause I do think agent of commerce and Gmail is going to happen.”
Brit Morin: UCF graduates booed speaker for mentioning AI revolution
“So in Florida, they did a graduation ceremony and The commencement speaker, I don't remember who it was, said one line. It was just like, we all know we're entering the next revolution. We had the industrial revolution, now it's the AI revolution. The students…”
Upcoming op-ed proposes a new tax regime for AI displacement
“We probably, I don't think it will, it won't be published by the time this airs, but we have a very well-known figure in the tech industry who's writing an op-ed for us, laying out an entirely new tax regime, aiming to address this very issue, right? Aiming to…”
Britt Morin: Gen Alpha's AI usage is growing faster than anyone else's
“I think we should all be very cautionary about Gen Alpha right now, like the 10 to 15 year olds, because like their use of AI is growing faster than anyone's.”
Landesberg: Seneca drones can reload and refill from any fire engine
“They're built to load and return from the fire engine. So they go to the fire, deploy the sort of the full payload, and then they can come back to any fire engine, any water tender, get refilled and fly back out again.”
Morin: AI model judged pro-AI side winner of doctor debate
“And then they asked AI, which I believe they called Claudius, to analyze the entire debate and choose a winner. And the AI chose the AI side.”
Brit Morin: Meta and Apple Will Use AI Defense in Antitrust Battles
“That makes a lot of sense, but now it feels like everyone's going to use that. Meta's going to use that. Apple's going to use that.”
Morin: Top 9 VC firms spent $27.5B on AI rounds in past year
“Just in the last year of the top nine investors who led or co-led funding rounds, they spent 27 and a half billion dollars, average deal size of three hundred and seventy two million. In contrast, from like 22 to 24, the top nine firms spent 10.8 billion for a…”
Jessica Lessin: Yahoo will eventually go public
“You guys, Yahoo's gonna go public at some point. It's gonna be crazy.”
Jessica Lessin: Taylor Swift will buy a sports franchise team
“She's gonna buy a sports stadium franchise team.”
Britt Morin: M&A activity and IPOs will increase in 2024
“I still think there's going to be more MNA next year too, because a lot of companies are continuing to like dwindle and can't find footing and funding. But I also do predict, and I don't know if we're in prediction territory yet, but I do predict the IPOs beco…”
Brit Morin: GLP-1 drug prices will drop within five years
“It's going to drop in the next five years. Like, that has to, both with competitive pressure, and then, you know, advances.”
Morin: Sarah Bond has left leadership of Microsoft Xbox
“Sarah Bond was running it for a while. She was amazing, and she left.”
Morin: Taylor Swift will announce a Sphere residency in Las Vegas
“Yeah.
I think there's going to be a huge Sphere residency.”
Brit Morin: Dell and Android OEMs are launching Google Book AI laptops
“Dell is one of the OEMs that is coming to market with the Google book, as well as all the other sort of Android OEMs.”
Brit Morin: Google Book runs combined Android-Chrome OS on Intel and ARM
“They're using Intel's Wildcat Lake, which is the core series, 300 and arm based chips from Qualcomm and MediaTek. They're running an operating system that combines Android and Chrome OS.”
Brit Morin: Taylor Swift will perform at the Las Vegas Sphere
“I also think, by the way, she's gonna do the sphere.”
Lessin: Doubled Twitter follower count following meme coin launch
“It's just like the interesting experience I had is, you know, you end up, I like double the number of Twitter followers I have of these people who are interested in this economy.”
Morin: Spiegel warned that simplifying Snap's user experience will hurt metrics
“Evan gave the guidance that this will hurt our numbers, but we don't care because we're, we want to, you know, go for a better experience for the people that are our core user base and trade off the other way.”
Brit Morin: First half of 2024 saw 88 IPOs, up from 72
“So we had 88 IPOs the first half of this year and 72 during the same period in 2023.”
Sam Lessin: BuzzFeed doubled its market cap to $70 million
“Somehow Buzzfeed has doubled its value from thirty million to seventy million dollars in market cap.”