The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 613 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Brit Morin: Deel CEO allegedly recruited Rippling employee as paid spy
“Keith O'Brien, who was the man allegedly spying for deal while working at Rip Lane had to
Put out an affidavit today, and he basically, like, came forward and just was like, all right, here's the truth.
Alex, how do you pronounce his name?
Boise, Boise, the CE…”
Anthropic has completely overtaken OpenAI in revenue
“So I'm just curious how you reconcile what you were saying about the costs and everything with just the unprecedented growth that Anthropic has seen and the like flippening with open AI where it has just completely overtaken open AI from a revenue perspective.”
Lessin: Trial revealed Altman paid Brockman $10M from family office
“It was revealed that Altman, because it was a nonprofit back then, was paid Greg ten million dollars out of his, like, own family office and kept it from Elon, and so all these sort of alliances were being formed beneath the surface, and it just seemed like a …”
Morin: Anthropic is raising at an $800B valuation
“And Anthropic this week, I heard, is also now raising at an eight hundred billion.”
Sam Lessin: People Will Kill Themselves and Others Because of AIs
“And like, at some point people are going to start killing themselves and each other because of AIs.”
Sam Lessin: Early Salesforce was unintegrated one-off software builds
“So the story I've heard, and someone can correct me in comments, I'm sure someone will, is that when he started Salesforce, it was billed as like this cloud CRM. And this platform, but it was total bullshit. He basically went to a bunch of people and sold them…”
Jessica Lessin: Stripe is attempting to acquire PayPal
“The Information has a big Stripe financial scoop that is worth discussing because. We have not discussed Stripe in a while and it is trying to buy PayPal.”
Lessin: Stripe Is Teaming Up With Advent for PayPal Bid
“So what they're doing for this PayPal takeover offer, which, you know, is, is just that, like, no sign that any deal is done, and I'm sure other bidders will emerge and whatever, but they're teaming up with Advent, which is a private equity firm,”
Lessin: Polymarket directed influencers to fake trades and earnings
“But Polymarket has been directing influencers to make fake videos about fake trades and reporting fake earnings for their influencer program.”
Forensic experts proved China is funding opposition to Utah data center
“And then he hired forensic experts to go and factually prove that it is China actually funding all of this opposition in Utah. And he actually mapped it a lot. You can go look on his Twitter and Instagram and he shares all of the data. And apparently has now s…”
Anthropic possesses an unreleased frontier AI model called Mythos
“We have the whole scenario now where there is a model that exists called Mythos. Nobody really has it except for Anthropic, and who knows if the actual real model as opposed to distilled versions of it that they give access to will ever kind of come out, and m…”
Lessin: OpenAI is preparing to confidentially file for an IPO soon
“Breaking news from the information and other outlets is that OpenAI confidentially filing soon.”
Lessin: Meta has been logging employee keystrokes to train internal AI
“This is a little bit old, but Meta has been keystroke logging employees to train AI, their AI, not so popular.”
Lessin: Musk and SpaceX Dedicated 100% of First Colossus Project to Anthropic
“We have seen perhaps the strangest AI compute deal to date, which is Anthropic Colossus. So SpaceX, Elon Musk. Have given over their first Colossus project. 100%. Not like 40%.”
AI companies are buying failed startups' Slack instances for training data
“You've got big foundation model companies are out there buying the slack instances of failed startups to get more data.”
Lessin: Leaked OpenAI memo targeted Anthropic's ARR math and compute investment
“There was a memo that was leaked from OpenAI, an OpenAI memo that was leaked. I think it was in OpenAI's interest for this memo to be out there. I also think it was written in a way where they wanted it to be out there, where they came after Anthropic. Both fo…”
Lessin: Rogue AI agent triggered major security alert at Meta
“A rogue AI agent triggered a major security alert at Meta by taking action without approval that led to exposure of sensitive information and user data to Meta employees who could not authorize it.”
Dave Morin: Anthropic claims software engineering jobs will vanish in 12 months
“Anthropic says no one will be doing software engineering 12 months from now.”
Lessin: China Instructed Tech Industry Not to Buy Nvidia H200 Chips
“Overnight breaking from the information China has said to its tech industry, no H 200. You may not buy H 200.”
Vinod Khosla: The majority of current AI venture investing will fail
“Bottom line, bargain hunting will be a poor bet in AI, but firms putting money to work who invest in all high valuations indiscriminately will do poorly, and that is the majority of the investing that is happening.”
OpenAI considered an antitrust complaint against Microsoft, WSJ reported
“The journal reported that OpenAI had considered an antitrust complaint against Microsoft.”
Coles says Musk plans to leave Washington role in 2-3 months
“Well, what he said was that he was planning to leave in two to In two to three months, his work would be done.”
Brit Morin: Deel espionage was coordinated via Telegram with 'The Watchman'
“Also, they had a telegram channel where they were discussing the payments, and.
Wait, who was?
Okay, it's Keith, it's the spy.
How much did they pay for the telegram, Brett?
I know, telegram, not signal.
It's the spy, it's the CEO, and then there's a third per…”
Sam Lessin: Getting humans to Mars during Trump's administration is impossible
“Everyone, you know, you're up there applauding like this, like window, we're going to get to Mars in Trump's administration. And it's absolute horseshit. Like we, like there aren't even window launch windows open for that to happen.”
Brit Morin: Anthropic CEO Claims AI Will Write Nearly All Code in 12 Months
“The CEO of Anthropix said, he said, In the next three to six months, AI is probably gonna be able to write 90% of all code. And in 12 months, nearly all code may be generated by AI.”
Lessin: Bezos directs Washington Post opinion to focus on free markets
“Bezos announced today that the Washington Post opinion section is going to wholly, wholly focus on topics that support personal liberties and free markets. So as a result of this, the opinion editor who is award winning, probably Pulitzer Prize winning, but I …”
Jessica Lessin: DOGE workers self-police conflicts despite unprecedented data access
“You have, you know, employees doing this who have a special status. They are in charge of determining their own conflicts of interest. And they are getting unprecedented access to something that is incredibly sensitive and important.”
Khosla: Frontier AI compute costs will drop 80-90% within a year
“My bet is, a year from now, it'll cost one-fifth to one-tenth of what it does today, and my advice to all our startups is ignore the cost of compute, because any assumption you make, any dollar you spend on optimizing your software will be worthless within the…”
Dave Morin: Most programming will be done in English by late 2025
“I think a year from now you know, most programming will be done in English. And I think that's the, there's almost no question.”
Lessin claims Spotify fired its Wrapped team and used AI instead
“Well, and believe it or not, at least I saw on social media, they had fired the entire team. So this was, they were able to produce with no people using AI.”
Morin: Tesla assembled the largest supercomputer in human history
“Tesla has also assembled the largest supercomputer in the history of humanity. That's a Tesla asset that is the GPU cluster that they've put together.”
Thiel Claimed Bill Gates Founded His Foundation to Pay Off Melinda
“The one thing that really pissed me off about the Peter Thiel, Joe Rogan interview was a long section where he Sort of claims in that Peter Thiel way that the only reason Bill Gates started the Gates Foundation was to pay off Melinda Gates instead of giving he…”
Sam Lessin: The 2024 Presidential Race Is Effectively Over for Democrats
“I just feel like this is over, right? Which I know is not what you're supposed to say, and, like, that helps purpose with town out and the whole nine yards, but, like, you know, Trump just had, like, one of the all-time ten-day periods ever, right?”
Lessin: Blackstone has only had one fund over 3x in 40 years
“It's like, in the history of Blackstone, they've raised, what is it, like, call it half a trillion dollars. That's again, that's not the number, but it's an enormous number of capital. They've had, like, one fund in, like, 40 years that has done more than thre…”
Sam Lessin: An outright US ban on TikTok will never get done
“I think saying ban TikTok, that's a thing that like candidly might be marginally better, but you'll never get done.”
Lessin: Meta is switching to Slack over Google for AI agents
“But Meta is moving to it because it thinks it's better than Google for agents.”
Meta's settlement drops teen daily limit to one hour if competitors agree
“For that two hour time limit, it will be reduced to a one hour daily limit if TikTok, Snap, and YouTube also agree.”
Josh Kushner acquired a Lakers stake over Jeanie Buss's objection
“Not only has the sale happened, but the Buss Family Trust also sold their remaining position over the objection of Jeannie Buss, but unfortunately her objection does not carry weight. Based on the structure of the trust.”
DOJ is investigating Andreessen Horowitz for board conflicts of interest
“The Department of Justice of the United States of America is investigating Andreessen Horowitz for conflicts of interest.”
Former Fed Chair Ben Bernanke sits on Anthropic's board-appointing trust
“It's the Anthropic Trust. It's just a group of, I think there are five, but they've only filled three people who pick the board members, and one of them is Ben Bernanke, fun fact.”
Wolfe: OpenAI has produced six spin-offs valued at tens of billions
“So far with OpenAI, valuation has gone from, like, you know, sub hundred million to trillion and plus, and you've had six diaspora companies that have all achieved, you know, tens of billions of dollars that have spun off of it.”
Stanford: Nvidia keeps compute debt off balance sheet via SPVs
“None of this goes back to NVIDIA. This is why Jensen's brilliant. He basically set this up as SPVs that will basically borrow against the taker pay agreements of the off takers of the neocloud guys that are saying we're all going to need 3000 dollars a month f…”
Lessin: Lilian Weng Rejoined OpenAI After Leaving Thinking Machines Lab
“Well, guess I read in the information today that she started at OpenAI.
Started back up at OpenAI.”
Dave Morin: US frontier AI models hobble cybersecurity and biological research capabilities
“Both the frontier models from the American companies have specific changes that have been made in their harnesses that hobble the model's ability to respond to certain types of tasks. And in particular, the two types of tasks that are the most on alert on watc…”
Dave Morin: Thinking Machines released the first heavy-hitting American open-weights model
“So, you know, Mira Mirati's thinking machines appears to be a really solid Open weights model. You know, it's a almost nine hundred and seventy five billion parameter model million token context window mixture of experts. It's really good. And this thing's ope…”