why aren't all 25 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Sam Lessin: An outright US ban on TikTok will never get done
“I think saying ban TikTok, that's a thing that like candidly might be marginally better, but you'll never get done.”
Assertion Supported
Meta's settlement drops teen daily limit to one hour if competitors agree
“For that two hour time limit, it will be reduced to a one hour daily limit if TikTok, Snap, and YouTube also agree.”
Prediction Partly held up
Dave Morin: China will retain control of TikTok's algorithm despite divestment
“There's one little detail in there, which is that here we are at the very end of this very long, very arduous news story, and China will still retain control of the algorithm, right? Like, so they did win the war of attrition at the end of the day. Like, it so…”
Assertion Supported
Lessin: JD Vance has been deputized to organize TikTok's new investor group.
“I think the state of play is that, in particular, JD Vance. Vance has been deputized to do this. Is trying to figure out what group of investors broadly, including strategics, can own what parts of TikTok and satisfy you know, the law.”
Assertion Partly supported
Jessica Lessin says China will block a TikTok sale under algorithm export rules
“They won't let them. It will be in violation of their rules against exporting algorithms.”
Prediction Held up
Sam Lessin: US politicians will not risk banning TikTok before 2024 election
“There's just no chance that in that environment they're gonna, like, risk any youth vote, even if they're terrible, woke people, for the sake of banning TikTok right now. And I think that sucks, because I think it is a huge national security risk, But I think …”
Assertion Partly supported
Lessin: Sequoia and Reid Hoffman are major TikTok investors
“Sequoia's an enormous investor. It's like, Reid Hoffman, who's a huge Democratic donor and would have a lot of sway in Washington as a huge investor. Like, they're all investors.”
Prediction Held up
Lessin: Apple will not remove TikTok due to China exposure
“Apple's not gonna kick them out. Apple's China exposure is enormous, right? Like, you know, even if they should, they won't, right?”
Prediction Held up
Lessin: The TikTok deal will resemble an expanded Project Texas, not a sale.
“Yeah, but I don't think it'll be a straight sale. I think it will be something that kind of resembles this Project Texas data deal they did with Oracle, but more than that”
Prediction Held up
Sam Lessin: There Is Zero Percent Chance MrBeast Buys TikTok
“Oh, I was short that. There's a zero percent chance.”
Assertion Supported
Jessica Lessin: TikTok Pays Microsoft $20M a Month for Azure OpenAI
“I read in the information that TikTok is paying Microsoft Twenty million dollars a month to access open AI through Azure.”
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Sam Lessin: ByteDance Will Sell TikTok to Saudi Buyers
“They're going to sell, you know, they're going to sell it to the Saudis.”
Prediction Partly held up
Jessica Lessin: Mubadala Will End Up Owning TikTok
“I think Mubadal is going to end up owning TikTok.”
Prediction Held up
Jessica Lessin: TikTok Will Sue the U.S. Over First Amendment
“So what's gonna happen after Biden signs this is ByteDance or TikTok is gonna sue to block it on the grounds that it's infringing on the First Amendment.”
Assertion Supported
Dave Morin says China limits youth screen time and mandates STEM algorithms
“They've actually banned TikTok usage longer than a certain number of minutes per day. They've also Banned the algorithm. They've like changed the algorithms that only pumps, you know, science and engineering and STEM related content to their kids. And yet they…”
Prediction Held up
Jessica Lessin predicts the US Senate will take up and pass the TikTok bill
“I think the Senate's gonna pick it up. I think it's happening.”
Prediction Held up
Sam Lessin: The US will not ban TikTok in 2024
“No, TikTok won't be banned, but it should be.”
Assertion Supported
Brit Morin: Taylor Swift's New Heights podcast drove 500 million views rapidly
“According to measurement company Mondo Metrics, Taylor Swift and New Heights reached half a billion views across all of the podcast episode across social media in under 24 hours. Three hundred and seventy nine million on Instagram, sixty one million on X, fift…”
Assertion Supported
Brit Morin: Amazon made a last-minute bid to acquire TikTok
“But Amazon just put in a last minute bid.”
Assertion Supported
Jessica Lessin: The Information reported TikTok plans to pull US service
“The information reported last night that TikTok will pull it for US users if that day comes.”
Assertion Supported
Brit Morin: Netflix UI redesign adds TikTok-style video clip feeds
“There's also video shorts that you can click on to sort of watch trail. It's not trailers. They're like shorts. They're clips from the shows that are in like a TikTok like feed that then you can click in and watch the show.”
Prediction Held up
Jessica Lessin says any TikTok ban legislation will inevitably face court challenges
“And then the court, you know, inevitable court challenge of that, because you have to believe that will happen.”
Assertion Contradicted
Dave Morin: ByteDance moved the TikTok feed into CapCut
“And I noticed a few weeks ago that they've also now moved the TikTok feed into CapCut.”
Assertion Supported
Britt Morin: TikTok launches badges for nighttime app avoidance and meditation
“There's like one badge Which is where if you complete your sleep hours mission by avoiding using TikTok at night, you get, then you get that one, or you can use a meditation tools feature to get a badge. So you're meditating more.”
Assertion Partly supported
Lessin: Methaphone content has surpassed 100 million views on TikTok
“One is like, it's now across like a hundred million views on TikTok, and it's like becoming popular and known.”