why aren't all 79 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 2 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Assertion Supported
Dave Morin says China limits youth screen time and mandates STEM algorithms
“They've actually banned TikTok usage longer than a certain number of minutes per day. They've also Banned the algorithm. They've like changed the algorithms that only pumps, you know, science and engineering and STEM related content to their kids. And yet they…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Dave Morin predicts a TikTok ban will confuse Americans and cause havoc
“If this happens, I think most people in the country are going to have no idea why it happened. And it will kind of cause a lot of havoc, which is unclear politically what effect that will have, at least inside the United States.”
Prediction Held up
Jessica Lessin predicts the US Senate will take up and pass the TikTok bill
“I think the Senate's gonna pick it up. I think it's happening.”
Insight
Sam Lessin: Regulating individual apps like TikTok creates an unwinnable whack-a-mole problem
“The regulatory pressure, you could either put the regulatory pressure on TikTok, right, which is what people are trying to direct, and then you have this whack-a-mole problem because companies are faster than regulators, so you regulate TikTok, but by the time…”
Opinion
Sam Lessin: TikTok operating in the US is an insane national security threat
“Day 623 of the U.S. Letting a huge national security threat sit inside our borders, which is insane, right? Like, it's like ridiculous that TikTok is allowed to be in the U.S. Given its current control structure. And kind of the geopolitical situation.”
Prediction Held up
Sam Lessin: The US will not ban TikTok in 2024
“No, TikTok won't be banned, but it should be.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Lessin: TikTok's AI will defeat California's media literacy school programs
“I have to believe that forget AGI, the very, very dirty version of AI that we have with TikTok will defeat the California public schools education program on what is real and what is not.”
Opinion
Dave Morin: US should have banned or restricted TikTok long ago
“I think we should have if not banned, like severely you know reduced TikTok's ability to influence the American audience a long time ago.”
Opinion
Jessica Lessin Opposes TikTok Ban, Favoring Domestic Data Localization
“Look, I am not in favor of a flat-out TikTok ban, but I am in favor of, like, a more, like, domiciled domestic, like, data regime, right?”
Opinion
Brit Morin favors US TikTok ban over Chinese data and mental health
“I'm more, more for TikTok ban. I think that there's a lot of data and facial recognition and all kinds of technologies that China's potentially building upon without, you know, real knowledge and consent. And I also just think it's terrible for mental health”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Jessica Lessin: TikTok is significantly under-monetized in the US
“Because for all of its rocket ship growth, TikTok is way under monetized, especially in the U.S.”
Assertion Supported
Brit Morin: Taylor Swift's New Heights podcast drove 500 million views rapidly
“According to measurement company Mondo Metrics, Taylor Swift and New Heights reached half a billion views across all of the podcast episode across social media in under 24 hours. Three hundred and seventy nine million on Instagram, sixty one million on X, fift…”
Assertion Supported
Brit Morin: Amazon made a last-minute bid to acquire TikTok
“But Amazon just put in a last minute bid.”
Insight
Sam Lessin: Social media platforms succeed by monetizing idle dead time
“The thing that the social media does is it monetizes like waiting in lines. It monetizes like, people are less angry at the airport because of TikTok. Right? Because they just sit in their fucking seats and, like, doom scroll, and then they're, like, not angry…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Meta Is Considering Launching a Standalone Reels App to Fight TikTok
“Meta is considering launching a standalone reels app, so that would be taking video only out of Instagram to go a little more head to head with TikTok.”
Assertion Supported
Jessica Lessin: The Information reported TikTok plans to pull US service
“The information reported last night that TikTok will pull it for US users if that day comes.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Britt Morin: TikTok ban could spur PE rollups of creator brands
“And I mean, could spur like a legit M and A. Feast. I bet private equity is, like, already figuring this out. Like, which things to salvage and buy for, like, 10 cents on the dollar. Do, like, various roll-ups of these brands that were popular on TikTok. Reboo…”
Insight
Lessin: Media bifurcates into TikTok and serialized TV, eliminating two-hour movies
“Well, there's even longer stuff, like the Game of Thrones serialized, goes on forever type shit, which is like a thousand hours, and then there's like the TikTok, but the middle drops out, right? And movies as a format is the middle”
Insight
Sam Lessin: TikTok shows engagement is like infinitely refinable sugar
“TikTok has shown us what the true north is of engagement. I think that is like refined sugar and you can just keep refining it.”
Insight
Dave Morin: Creators Must Diversify Platforms and Build Direct Channels
“What I'm arguing for is that people do not build only for Instagram. I think you've got a lot of people that are out there building only for Instagram, only for TikTok, only for YouTube, whatever. Just like an investor would never invest in a single stock. You…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Dave Morin: Any TikTok Buyout Requires a Multi-Party Syndicate
“And the scale of it also, I mean, it's, it has to be a multi-party deal, like many private equity firms plus Saudi, I don't even know, like the scale of it is enormous.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Dave Morin: Fragmented internet subcultures perpetually disrupt top-down corporate alignment
“As the internet has kind of become like, I think we can safely say in 20, 24, the internet has become culture worldwide. Like you have this, Splintering of cultures, right? Where every person in an organization pays attention to a different sub graph of some c…”
Opinion
Lessin: Live shopping is TikTok's business model for major growth
“This is TikTok's business model, to be clear. This is what show thinks will take it to the moon. It's huge in China with Doyen, and-”
Assertion Supported
Brit Morin: Netflix UI redesign adds TikTok-style video clip feeds
“There's also video shorts that you can click on to sort of watch trail. It's not trailers. They're like shorts. They're clips from the shows that are in like a TikTok like feed that then you can click in and watch the show.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Sam Lessin: 20 of top 50 TikTok songs are over 5 years old
“No, I anchored you guys in a way that made you go too high, but 20 of 50, right, are older than five years, and a lot of them are super old because there's this whole super cycle around nostalgia going on, even in TikTok short videos.”
Opinion
Lessin predicts a dedicated hardware device for TikTok or Reels would sell
“If you told me there was a TikTok phone or a real phone, it did nothing except for that, that would sell.”
Prediction Held up
Jessica Lessin says any TikTok ban legislation will inevitably face court challenges
“And then the court, you know, inevitable court challenge of that, because you have to believe that will happen.”
Opinion
Jessica Lessin says the TikTok divestment bill was rushed due to its acronym
“That tells me this thing was rushed, rushed, rushed through, because if you can't even get, you know, a pro-American acronym on top of your bill, that's like the definition of the 11th hour.”
Assertion Contradicted
Dave Morin: ByteDance moved the TikTok feed into CapCut
“And I noticed a few weeks ago that they've also now moved the TikTok feed into CapCut.”
Assertion Supported
Britt Morin: TikTok launches badges for nighttime app avoidance and meditation
“There's like one badge Which is where if you complete your sleep hours mission by avoiding using TikTok at night, you get, then you get that one, or you can use a meditation tools feature to get a badge. So you're meditating more.”
Assertion Partly supported
Lessin: Methaphone content has surpassed 100 million views on TikTok
“One is like, it's now across like a hundred million views on TikTok, and it's like becoming popular and known.”