The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 79 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 2 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Dave Morin: Short-form video feeds have become net negative for health
“Look, my opinion is, I think I've said it on the pod already, which is that the, what we are actually talking about topically right now, the reels, the TikTok, the video feed, I believe crossed over in the last three months to being net health negative.”
Sam Lessin: Free speech protections should not extend globally to non-Americans
“I mean, my personal view on this is the same reason why I think we should ban TikTok, right? Which is, like, free speech is meant to, like, it's not, like, a right for the sake of being a right, right? It's a right to make our country stronger, right? And to m…”
Lessin: ByteDance investors ignore national security risks for massive financial incentives
“Oh, they're pretty smart guys. They know exactly what's up. They, they're trading between what is obviously true to any American versus their enormous financial incentive, and empathy is a great word for that.”
Morin: China has laid groundwork via TikTok to sway US youth on Taiwan
“And so Sam's analogy earlier that like if China decides to invade Taiwan and they want the American youth on their side, they've already laid the groundwork. Like we've seen it time and time again.”
Sam Lessin: An outright US ban on TikTok will never get done
“I think saying ban TikTok, that's a thing that like candidly might be marginally better, but you'll never get done.”
Casey Neistat: TikTok is a platform for sensationalism, not creativity
“I don't think it's a platform for creativity. I think it's a platform for sensationalism all the way through and through.”
Lessin: China won't manipulate TikTok yet to avoid burning the asset
“People are like, well, do you think the Chinese are manipulating it? And my general answer is no, because I think they're too smart to do that. Like, why waste the tool, right?”
Lessin: China will weaponize TikTok algorithmically if it invades Taiwan
“But the second they want to go invade Taiwan, which they've said they want to do, you better believe that they will use their for-profit company, right, with, given their ulterior motives at a higher level, right, to soften the beaches by using AI to just kind…”
Meta's settlement drops teen daily limit to one hour if competitors agree
“For that two hour time limit, it will be reduced to a one hour daily limit if TikTok, Snap, and YouTube also agree.”
Morin: TikTok and Instagram are unequivocally optimized for addiction
“TikTok and Instagram now are absolutely unequivocally optimized for addiction. Like they will show you the next best thing to keep the dopamine level in your brain at the same level.”
Lessin: AI excitement saved TikTok and protected Google from antitrust scrutiny
“They kept Chrome and Google, they saved TikTok. There's, like, six things that because there's, like, this wave of anticipation and hope and excitement around this stuff, These other conversations just get people just move on.”
Dave Morin: TikTok US Data Localization Meaningless Without Algorithmic Control
“Like, it doesn't matter if the data is on his servers. What matters is what algorithm is choosing what to show you next.”
Sam Lessin: TikTok Should Be Banned From First Principles
“TikTok should be banned. Like from first principles.”
Dave Morin: China will retain control of TikTok's algorithm despite divestment
“There's one little detail in there, which is that here we are at the very end of this very long, very arduous news story, and China will still retain control of the algorithm, right? Like, so they did win the war of attrition at the end of the day. Like, it so…”
Lessin: Any TikTok US deal will merely create a services company
“My prediction is that whatever ends up transacting here is going to look like a services company. It's going to have the data. Maybe it'll have a little bit of revenue ops or eng, but I think this is the needle that now everyone's trying to thread.”
Lessin: Oracle is the only serious bidder to acquire TikTok
“Newsflash, there's really one serious player in this, which is Oracle.”
Morin: TikTok's fate is irrelevant because Meta already cloned its algorithms
“Meta's algorithms have basically become tech talks algorithms. So tech talk has accomplished the mission and it doesn't matter if it exists anymore.”
Lessin: JD Vance has been deputized to organize TikTok's new investor group.
“I think the state of play is that, in particular, JD Vance. Vance has been deputized to do this. Is trying to figure out what group of investors broadly, including strategics, can own what parts of TikTok and satisfy you know, the law.”
Sam Lessin: US TikTok Ban Will Prompt Foreign Countries to Ban Facebook
“I think it's pretty reasonable that some countries turn around and say, well, wait a minute. You guys don't want TikTok. We don't want Facebook. That's an American thing, right?”
Sam Lessin: TikTok is the biggest unforced national security blunder in history
“I've said for years that this is like the number one unforced national security history issue, probably in history.”
Jessica Lessin notes ByteDance and TikTok investors are staying silent on lobbying
“One of the things that's interesting now is actually a lot of the investors in ByteDance and TikTok are actually staying pretty silent on the lobbying front, which is a huge shift from a year or two years ago.”
Sam Lessin predicts a TikTok ban will trigger global social media scrutiny
“This is probably going to have some pretty wild and potentially bad knock-on effects globally. Just slight ones, because I think a lot of countries are like, wait a minute. All the social media is American. How do we feel about, if America doesn't like TikTok …”
Jessica Lessin says China will block a TikTok sale under algorithm export rules
“They won't let them. It will be in violation of their rules against exporting algorithms.”
Sam Lessin says TikTok is an obvious US national security threat
“This is, like, such an obvious national security threat.”
Lessin: Algorithmic distribution control is a superweapon for shifting public opinion
“What you do is you, like, look, you just subtly, you think about bot farms and control, it's like, you're like, ah, I'm gonna let these people that are, like, pro this issue, I'm not gonna, like, limit them quite as much, or these other people, you can be so s…”
Sam Lessin: US politicians will not risk banning TikTok before 2024 election
“There's just no chance that in that environment they're gonna, like, risk any youth vote, even if they're terrible, woke people, for the sake of banning TikTok right now. And I think that sucks, because I think it is a huge national security risk, But I think …”
Sam Lessin: Apple could easily wipe out TikTok's US business using defaults
“Apple could cut TikTok's business if that's our concern. In the US down to nothing, very easily, just with defaults.”
Casey Neistat: TikTok built the greatest video creation toolset ever made
“I think that what they've done that no one talks about is they've created the single greatest video creation tool tool set that anyone's ever done.”
Sam Lessin: The United States should ban TikTok
“We absolutely should ban TikTok. It's completely insane that we would allow, like, a foreign.”
Sam Lessin: America must ban TikTok or be crushed
“If America cannot get its act together to ban TikTok from a national security standpoint, we deserve to be crushed because, and we're going to be.”
Lessin: Sequoia and Reid Hoffman are major TikTok investors
“Sequoia's an enormous investor. It's like, Reid Hoffman, who's a huge Democratic donor and would have a lot of sway in Washington as a huge investor. Like, they're all investors.”
Lessin: Apple will not remove TikTok due to China exposure
“Apple's not gonna kick them out. Apple's China exposure is enormous, right? Like, you know, even if they should, they won't, right?”
Dave Morin: AI influence campaigns could already be running undetected on TikTok
“Right now, there's no way to know the identity of who's behind anything that's going on. And so, that could already be happening, and we wouldn't know it.”
Sam Lessin: Banning TikTok prompts European backlash against US platforms
“The problem is that I think it's a very hard argument for us to make doing that and then defending our internet platforms everywhere else, right? Because the second we do that, Europe is going to say very rightfully, do we really want the American internet pla…”
Sam Lessin: TikTok structurally remains a huge national security hole
“From a national security and, like, identity standpoint, all this type of stuff, I think it's still, like, structurally a ridiculous risk, right? Like, you know, basically, like, it's never made, it's, it is a huge national security hole.”
Lessin: The TikTok deal will resemble an expanded Project Texas, not a sale.
“Yeah, but I don't think it'll be a straight sale. I think it will be something that kind of resembles this Project Texas data deal they did with Oracle, but more than that”
Sam Lessin: There Is Zero Percent Chance MrBeast Buys TikTok
“Oh, I was short that. There's a zero percent chance.”
Jessica Lessin: A TikTok ban may not be good for Meta long-term
“I'm still not convinced that it's actually good for Meta long term for this to happen, but short term, you clearly remove a lot of ad dollars.”
Lessin: Banning TikTok could ultimately backfire on Meta globally
“If we ban tick tock, which by the way, I've been on record for 18 months saying is a completely obvious thing to do. The one on one version is that's good for same. Dave Morin: Couldn't agree more. Sam Lessin: The one on one version is good for Facebook becaus…”
Morin: AI chatbots and TikTok's algorithm are fundamentally the same mechanism
“Actually, most people, I still don't think associate tech talk with being one of the first AI, you know products at scale that did this first. Now it's just much more direct. It's like, you're talking to the algorithm rather than the algorithm serving up conte…”
Jessica Lessin: TikTok Pays Microsoft $20M a Month for Azure OpenAI
“I read in the information that TikTok is paying Microsoft Twenty million dollars a month to access open AI through Azure.”
Sam Lessin: TikTok's Presence in the US Benefits Meta
“To get rid of TikTok is to point out the fact that its presence in the U.S. Is actually a net positive for Meta.”
Sam Lessin: ByteDance Will Sell TikTok to Saudi Buyers
“They're going to sell, you know, they're going to sell it to the Saudis.”
Jessica Lessin: Walmart, Oracle, and Microsoft May Bid for TikTok
“We'll see Walmart and Oracle and maybe Microsoft and who knows, try to form potential consortiums to buy it or spin it off.”
Jessica Lessin: Mubadala Will End Up Owning TikTok
“I think Mubadal is going to end up owning TikTok.”
Jessica Lessin: TikTok Will Sue the U.S. Over First Amendment
“So what's gonna happen after Biden signs this is ByteDance or TikTok is gonna sue to block it on the grounds that it's infringing on the First Amendment.”