The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 11 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 11 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Lessin predicts OpenAI equity value is headed to zero
“Guys, I've been saying OpenAI zero the entire time. And I'm gonna keep saying it.”
OpenAI and Anthropic Are Both Targeting an October IPO
“I think all of that is smoke and mirrors. And I think they're probably on a very conventional IPO timeframe, putting them at October ish alongside anthropic.”
Jessica Lessin: OpenAI has a 90% chance of going public by 2027
“I will say I'm 40% 2026, but like 90% 2027. So I think there is a re reasonable chance next year, and like, I just think they're not gonna go a Stripe, a SpaceX, and all that kind of stuff. Like, they're just not. The body language is totally different.”
Jessica Lessin: OpenAI and Anthropic will absolutely go public
“These will be public companies. Absolutely. And maybe sooner rather than later.”
Dave Morin: OpenAI will definitively not launch glasses or cameras
“I also think that OpenAI, I, I'll just say it on the record, I think that OpenAI will not launch a glasses-based vision, like, definitively they will not have cameras, they will not have glasses, like, That is a very diff, it's a very divergent worldview from …”
Jessica Lessin: OpenAI's for-profit conversion will trigger a multi-year lawsuit
“And then they actually have to convert into a company cause guys, they're not a company. And then there's going to be a multi-year lawsuit over that fact.”
Lessin: Publisher lawsuits will not put OpenAI out of business
“Will it put OpenAI out of business? No, I don't think so, because like, They can fight these lawsuits. You know, there's not clear, like, other kind of regulatory stuff breathing down their neck”
Sam Lessin predicts The New York Times' lawsuit against OpenAI will fail
“That lawsuit, I just can't imagine that OpenAI, the cat's out of the bag. It's just not going to happen, that that, that lawsuit will be successful.”