The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

2statements match

0resolved → 2open claims → 0supported → 0contradicted →

why aren't all 2 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 2 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2040

Sam Lessin wagers $1M that no human sets foot on Mars by 2040

“I, a million dollars that a human has been on Mars by 2040. Like set foot, like planted the flag, like boot on sand. Like literally went out of a spaceship, like hung out, did a little dance and I'll bet you a million dollars.”

Sam Lessin Mar 14, 2025 ▶ 24:03 #90: Silicon Valley Unscripted: Billionaires, AI, and Interplanetary Exploration · More or Less Podcast

Prediction Open · timeframe Jul 2040

Britt Morin: Humans will reach Mars within 15 years

“Space, we're gonna be on Mars in 15.”

Brit Morin Jul 25, 2025 ▶ 15:48 #109 OpenAI vs Google: The Real Business Model War Begins · More or Less Podcast

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The Ledger

Turn any episode into a week of clips.