why aren't all 12 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Assertion Partly supported
Apple's Foundation Models Are Actually Distilled Google Gemini Models
“And what it looks like they've done here is just taken, you know, state of the art Gemini models, both the on-device local flavor, as well as the cloud flavors and distilled them for their own purposes into these, you know, quote, Apple foundation models. Whic…”
Assertion Supported
Jessica Lessin: Altman warned OpenAI staff 'vibes are going to be tough'
“We published a memo week or so ago, or details from a memo, quotes from a memo in which Sam Altman, ahead of the Gemini launch, but clearly when the team had been testing it, needed to rally his troops. And he said, the vibes are going to be tough out there. O…”
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Dave Morin: NotebookLM could replace Google's Gemini UX within six months
“I mean, I think you might see in three, six months that the sort of Gemini core user experience is thrown out in favor of the notebook LM experience because it's just better for everyday consumers.”
Assertion Partly supported
Morin: Google Gemini Achieved 90% on MMLU, Beating Human Experts
“The essence of Gemini is, is this idea of multi-modality AI and the idea that it's now finally 90% Of sort of capability, and it outperforms humans. So the human percentage was, 86.4% as far as the human expert scale. Gemini is now 90%, and they call it”
Assertion Supported
Stanford: Google Gemini just reached one billion users
“I mean, Gemini just hit a billion users.”
Assertion Supported
Jessica Lessin says Apple and Google partnered for Gemini to power Siri
“Google and Apple are doing a Siri deal, so Siri is going to be powered by Gemini, essentially, until, until Apple, quote, figures it out, but it, there seems to be this pattern here of Apple realizing Google is, is pretty good at this stuff, and they'll be pre…”
Assertion Contradicted
Jessica Lessin: Gemini's Daily Active Users Are Three Quarters of ChatGPT's
“I mean, if you look at daily actives, Gemini is about three quarters of ChatGPT at the moment.”
Assertion Supported
Google announces over 900M active Gemini users
“I think they said they have over nine hundred million active users using Gemini.”
Prediction Held up
Brit Morin: Gemini and Anthropic will match OpenAI's health data integration
“Gemini's gonna do this. Anthropoc's gonna do this.”
Assertion Supported
Morin: Google launched Offerwall to help publishers monetize lost search traffic
“Google, in an attempt to make publishers more happy because all of their traffic has dropped, especially with Gemini now rolling out on top of search results, launched a new product this week to help publishers monetize. Did you see this? It's called Offerwall…”
Assertion Partly supported
Jessica Lessin: Gemini has 35M daily and 350M monthly active users
“Gemini has thirty-five million daily actives. I think ChatGPT has five hundred million monthlies, and actually Gemini is three hundred and fifty million monthly, so that's not that.”
Assertion Supported
Jessica Lessin: Google is delayed on Gemini cloud and enterprise rollout
“We've got the next folly in the AI wars coming as Google is delayed on many other aspects of the Gemini rollout, including the cloud and enterprise stuff, which is quite important.”