The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 179 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 3 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Brit Morin: Meta community moderation is unlikely to work well
“Like I just find it implausible that this is going to work well. And I know that, you know, even if one percent of content gets falsely moderated by all these systems that were set up, I'm not sure that the community moderation is going to prove to be much bet…”
Lessin: Unmoderated platforms make real identity and trust networks the only solution
“If you don't moderate, you put more and more pressure on having real identity in a way that can be like, oh, that's this person. And like, I trust this person. Networks of trust. Like, that's the only solution.”
Dave Morin: Zuckerberg's moderation shift returns to early Facebook values
“I think Mark's taking the opportunity here to return to his original values to some extent.”
Sam Lessin: Meta has the clearest positive asymmetry on AI
“Clearest asymmetry to the positive on AI. Not even close.”
Lessin: Banning TikTok could ultimately backfire on Meta globally
“If we ban tick tock, which by the way, I've been on record for 18 months saying is a completely obvious thing to do. The one on one version is that's good for same. Dave Morin: Couldn't agree more. Sam Lessin: The one on one version is good for Facebook becaus…”
Levie: FTC scrutiny is hyper-targeted at just four or five Big Tech firms
“I think if you look at the actual track record it, you know, this is probably, you know, unfortunately, a negative on, on the FTC environment, but it does seem hyper targeted at four or five companies. You know, Splunk was acquired for thirty billion dollars b…”
Levie: Restricting tech M&A halts the full cycle of innovation
“I probably favor more allowance for M&A to happen. I think there's been some kind of, you know, dubious cases around, you know, why can't iRobot get, get bought by Amazon? Why can't Facebook buy Meta, buy, buy the Giphy or whatever, the 50 person VR company? L…”
Levie: Google is the most threatened Big Tech company by AI
“Google is, is in, you know, singularly the trickiest spot, I think of the big tech players. Cause you know, this is not particularly disruptive to Meta. It's basically all upside. It's all kind of like an adjacent side business to AWS and Amazon. It's all net …”
Dave Morin: Zuckerberg's public pop culture stunts are driven by Facebook data
“All you have to do is look at Facebook's data set to know that like these types of pop culture moves are what drives engagement, right? Like MMA drives engagement. It just elected the president, like these types of things. T-Pain is having a huge resurgence in…”
Morin: Meta's hardware strategy is identical to Comcast's living room cable box
“It's like literally no different than, it's literally no different than Comcast putting the box in your living room. That's all Meta's trying to do, right? Like, they're developing hardware to increase.”
Lessin: Regulators would lose their minds if Meta captured 3 hours daily
“If people were actually using Meta products 2:03 hours a day, regulators would lose their fucking minds.”
Lessin: Vision Pro is the most expensive device per minute used
“I do maintain that if you want to say, Cost per minute of use that the Vision Pro is probably the most expensive device in the history of the world.”
Lessin: Startups cannot compete in AR and VR hardware due to costs
“Not anytime soon, and not for a very long time, because I think it's one of those classic things where, like, the cost of entry to play in these games is too expensive for any startup to go after.”
Dave Morin: Facebook's 2017 algorithm change destroyed digital media ad models
“Facebook just like changed the algorithm overnight in 2017 and effectively destroyed the entire media business because the, their advertising models collapsed overnight. Like they could no longer fulfill the insertion orders.”
Sam Lessin: Meta's post-COVID culture and performance have worked effectively
“It seems like Meta is performing really well, right? Like, it seems like they've got, you know, their ass in gear on a lot of stuff, not everything, but like a lot of stuff, you know, post COVID and like, you know, Mark set a tone and the organization set a to…”
Sam Lessin: Meta has direct AI utility while Microsoft must sell it
“Because they have an actual use case for AI. Microsoft actually has to sell the fucking AI, right? Because that's the whole thing is not, they can't use it. They got to actually sell it.”
Sam Lessin: Mid-Sized Tech Companies Cannot Band Together to Compete in AI
“The problem is you just have this power law of costs where, you know, you can't band a bunch of ten billion dollar companies together to compete with a trillion dollar company in this. You need a trillion dollar company To throw their hat in the ring, and then…”
Sam Lessin: Meta's Lack of a Simple Llama API Is a Strategic Mistake
“And like, the thing about LOM or anything is like, there just doesn't exist. Like someone will package that eventually, but like, they don't prioritize that. I actually think it's a strategic mistake. I think they should, purely for developer mindshare, not as…”
Jessica Lessin: FTC Chair Lina Khan Prevents Meta From Acquiring EssilorLuxottica
“Lina Khan ain't letting them buy anything. So that's why they're not buying the whole thing. Amazon couldn't buy a vacuum cleaner, guys.”
Sam Lessin: Meta's Ad Business Is Uniquely Aligned With Open-Source AI
“Meta's business strategy and open source are highly aligned in a way that is not true for the companies that are hawking closed models.”
Sam Lessin: TikTok's Presence in the US Benefits Meta
“To get rid of TikTok is to point out the fact that its presence in the U.S. Is actually a net positive for Meta.”
Morin: Steve Jobs Warned in 2008 That Facebook Would Become Like Cigarettes
“Dave and I both worked at Apple back in the day, and I remember the town hall that Steve spoke at in like, oh, seven, oh, eight, where he specifically pointed out that Facebook was going to be seeing the equivalent of cigarettes, and like how prescient was tha…”
Morin: Zuckerberg coined "move fast" so engineers wouldn't fear breaking Facebook
“And it was a lot about, we had actually just had an engineer that took down the entire site, and the engineer was feeling absolutely terrible because the, you know, the change he made in the code caused us to lose some ad revenue that day. And Mark was looking…”
Lessin: Oculus only survived because Facebook acquired and sheltered it
“The only reason Oculus exists today versus being a completely fucked company that is dead in the water 10 years ago is because Facebook picked it up and sheltered it, right?”
Sam Lessin: Incumbents Will Dominate AI Features Via Existing Distribution
“It's nice to be 10% better at those prompts, but that's not what's going to dominate. It's just like whatever they choose to put in there is what's going to dominate, right? Like no one's going to like change, no one's going to not use LinkedIn because some up…”
Jessica Lessin: Threads will not be a huge part of Meta's story
“I don't think the, I think the product is quite good, but I think if you look at the arc of Meta, I don't think Threads is going to be a huge part of the story.”
Dave Morin: Meta Controls Misinformation Much Better Than Twitter Currently Does
“They clearly don't have it under control, or at least Twitter, whatever Twitter calls itself, doesn't. Meta seems to be in a much better position.”
Dave Morin: Meta needs 18% of Instagram to match Twitter's size
“All they need to do is convert, I guess, about 18% of Instagram to threads, and they'll have an app the size of Twitter.”
Lessin: Zuckerberg Uniquely Positioned to Sell AI's Optimistic Vision
“Mark is one of the rare leaders that actually is in a position as a founder at a trillion dollar scale, who already has all the people on his platform who can try to tell the light side of the story”
Lessin: Meta's Earnings Disappointment Caused by Legal and Severance Costs
“Meta reported earnings that were disappointing, but mostly because they spent a lot of money in lawsuits and laying people off severance, so.”
Morin: Facebook considered entering the cloud business in 2007
“We actually considered being in the cloud business back when we launched Facebook platform in oh seven.”
Morin: Meta's new glasses are still manufactured in Luxottica factories
“It's all Luxottica, right? Luxottica owns Ray-Ban. They just made their own label. Right? So it's all the same, same. It's just that they've got their own label now, but they're manufacturing it in the exact same factories.”
Lessin: Meta signaled more layoffs by admitting unknown optimal company size
“Meta had recent layoffs and came out and said, we can't confirm that there won't be more, and we don't actually know the optimal size of this company.”
Britt Morin: Meta will not design an attractive smartwatch for women
“With their Meta glasses. Are they really going to design a cute wash for women? No. Like, so maybe in the future, once they actually design something relevant for me.”
Lessin: The AI ad boom will turn on big time and accrue to Meta
“I think the ads, AI ad story is going to turn on big time this upcoming year. Huge time. I'm seeing all these startups in the space doing like insane revenue growth. And like, I just think that ultimately all accrues back to Meta.”
Brit Morin: Apple design lead Alan Dye is leaving to join Meta
“Alan Dye, Apple's design lead. Is leaving the company and joining Meta.”
Lessin: Instagram will be the only Meta division working in-office full-time
“I think they'll be the only division.”
Dave Morin: Meta hired Apple's Alan Dye to design its smart glasses
“And so the reporting to Boz, I would bet, you know, working on the metaglasses, I think that's the strategic move here.”
Sam Lessin: Facebook Sold Logged-Out Homepage Ads Pre-IPO to Boost Revenue
“I remember the era right, right before going public when Facebook was selling a logged out page to try to make money, so I don't want to be too high and mighty about that, but yes.”
Dave Morin: Facebook Knew It Beat MySpace When MySpace Sold Homepage Takeovers
“When we were building Facebook in the 2000, we knew we had beaten MySpace when they started selling the homepage to the Hulk movie, and the Hulk started, the Hulk, like, punched through the MySpace homepage.”
Sam Lessin: Meta's New AR Glasses Feature Wristband Input and HUD
“It has a heads-up display that works, so you can, like, use apps inside the glasses, you know, you can you can text and, like, write messages using the screen and, like, the wristband in the headset.”
Brit Morin: Meta and Apple Will Use AI Defense in Antitrust Battles
“That makes a lot of sense, but now it feels like everyone's going to use that. Meta's going to use that. Apple's going to use that.”
Sam Lessin: Meta added an OpenAI-sized market cap in five post-market minutes
“Meta just added an OpenAI in five minutes to their market cap after the market close, so I don't know how that's going to blow out for anyone.”
Lessin: Alexandr Wang landed a huge early Facebook deal via BD
“And so, he got an enormous Facebook, like, content moderation-y, label-y type deal super early that no one thought he was gonna get just by working the BD.”
Lessin: Meta flipped its Ray-Ban companion app into an AI chatbot
“What they did is they took the vision app, they renamed it, they threw a gatekeeper up and flipped it into the chat app. And then it also has the connected glasses in it as in the background.”
Meta Is Considering Launching a Standalone Reels App to Fight TikTok
“Meta is considering launching a standalone reels app, so that would be taking video only out of Instagram to go a little more head to head with TikTok.”
Dave Morin: LLMs must dramatically increase user interactions to build ad networks
“Like they need people interacting with it a lot more for a lot more reasons in order to build a good ad market. It's basically the identical thing we were working on at Facebook.”
Morin: Ray-Ban Meta is the breakout tech product of 2024
“Like, they're definitely the breakout product. I, I'll keep saying this. I think it's the breakout tech product of the year, and it's starting to show a future where what is on your face is actually a really serious platform, and I think that that's the thing …”