why aren't all 32 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Assertion Partly supported
Apple's Foundation Models Are Actually Distilled Google Gemini Models
“And what it looks like they've done here is just taken, you know, state of the art Gemini models, both the on-device local flavor, as well as the cloud flavors and distilled them for their own purposes into these, you know, quote, Apple foundation models. Whic…”
Prediction Held up
Brit Morin predicts Apple will acquire a major AI company like Anthropic
“Speaking of Apple, I think they come back next year, both in the AI realm, like they're going to make either one big acquisition, like an topic.”
Assertion Supported
Jessica Lessin: The Information reported Apple paused next Vision Pro
“The information is reported there, they're not even working on the next version of it.”
Prediction Held up
Lessin: Apple will not remove TikTok due to China exposure
“Apple's not gonna kick them out. Apple's China exposure is enormous, right? Like, you know, even if they should, they won't, right?”
Assertion Supported
Jessica Lessin says Apple and Google partnered for Gemini to power Siri
“Google and Apple are doing a Siri deal, so Siri is going to be powered by Gemini, essentially, until, until Apple, quote, figures it out, but it, there seems to be this pattern here of Apple realizing Google is, is pretty good at this stuff, and they'll be pre…”
Assertion Supported
Dave Morin: Apple spends 10-20% of income on CapEx versus 50%+ for peers
“Apple spending something like 10 to 20% of income on this capex. Everyone else is like well north of 50.”
Assertion Supported
Lessin: Apple Scrapped Satellite Internet Project to Protect Carrier Relations
“Our new, but was previously at the information reporter, Aaron Tilly, and one of our reporters out of Hong Kong, Wayne Ma, published this really interesting in-depth piece about Apple's ambitions in satellite internet, including a lot of details about Project …”
Prediction Held up
Lessin: Courts Likely to Bar Apple-Google Search Deal in Current Form
“The courts are likely to say that the Apple Google search deal cannot continue in its current form for antitrust reasons.”
Assertion Supported
Dave Morin: DOJ artificially narrowed Apple smartphone market to claim a monopoly
“You can't claim that I just on one simple piece of data, which is that Apple doesn't even have a monopoly position in the smartphone market. You know, and like the lawsuit had to reduce the scope of the smartphone market to like just the expensive part of the …”
Assertion Supported
Dave Morin: Apple denies developers direct access to on-device models
“At the same time, the one thing that I was disappointed about is that you cannot access these local models directly. It's something that a lot of folks aren't talking about. They've put a pretty intense wrapper around it, at least on the developer front. You k…”
Assertion Supported
Dave Morin: The Apple App Store did $1 trillion in business in 2022
“You know, he was telling me that the app store did a trillion dollars in business in 20, 22 alone.”
Assertion Supported
Jessica Lessin: Apple's U.S. chip manufacturing requires final assembly in Taiwan
“We reported the information that their big bet on, like, US semi-manufacturing actually has this wrinkle that final assembly still happens in Taiwan.”
Assertion Supported
Sam Lessin: Apple is no longer TSMC's largest client
“But they're no longer TSMC's biggest client.”
Assertion Partly supported
Stanford: Apple and Google block independent developers from accessing Wi-Fi location
“Apple and Google or Android have both locks Wi-Fi location. You cannot access it as a developer.”
Assertion Partly supported
Dave Morin: 512GB Mac Studio sold out immediately upon OpenClaw launch
“The Apple's Mac Studio, for example, at 512 gigs sold out immediately when OpenClaw launched and has never come back into stock because you want to be able to load an entire model into memory”
Assertion Supported
Apple plans for John Ternus as CEO, Tim Cook as Executive Chairman
“This is a transition plan with John Ternus, who we should talk about, taking over as CEO, and Tim Cook staying on as executive chairman, and him taking on some of the going to the White House diplomatic kind of roles.”
Prediction Held up
Jessica Lessin: Apple Will Not Hire an External CEO
“They're not going to run a search and hire a CEO from another company to run Apple, unless they're like covering.”
Assertion Supported
Brit Morin: Apple design lead Alan Dye is leaving to join Meta
“Alan Dye, Apple's design lead. Is leaving the company and joining Meta.”
Assertion Supported
Jessica Lessin: The Information reports Apple's thin iPhone is suffering weak sales
“Turns out this thing isn't selling as reported in information, delaying next versions, et cetera.”
Assertion Partly supported
Brit Morin: Apple Disbanded Its Centralized AI Team Across Vertical Teams
“Apple disbanded its centralized AI team and actually is now distributing all the AI people onto the vertical teams.”
Assertion Contradicted
Dave Morin: Apple's native parental control features have languished for years
“Cause that's the thing that I think about a lot is that the Apple ones haven't been updated in years.”
Assertion Supported
Brit Morin: Google's $20B search deal accounts for a quarter of Apple's services revenue
“Google paid Apple, twenty billion for the default search deal, and Apple's services division, which this revenue went into, generated eighty-five billion. So about a quarter of its services division is coming Directly from Google.”
Assertion Supported
Morin: Apple's AI release lacks native access to local model APIs
“I was hoping actually that the Apple release would include Like native access to local APIs, but it doesn't which is unfortunate as I was like ready to write checks for social AI stuff”
Assertion Supported
Morin: Apple restricts developers from directly accessing its on-device AI models
“The one thing that I was disappointed about is that you cannot access these local models directly. It's something that a lot of folks aren't talking about. They've put a pretty intense wrapper around it, at least on the developer front. You know, you can use t…”
Assertion Partly supported
Morin: iPhone Air electronics fit entirely behind top camera bump
“I mean, this thing is like mostly battery. The craziest thing about it is that the phone part, like the electronics all fit in the very top and like the top 10th of the phone, like right behind the bump that the camera's in and the rest of the phone is just ba…”
Assertion Supported
Sam Lessin: Apple acquired the studio behind Sneaky Sasquatch
“And you know, it's the top of tech meme today. You know who acquires it? Apple.”
Assertion Partly supported
Morin: Steve Jobs bypassed hierarchy for quarterly top 100 meetings
“There was like a central core that Steve would meet with on Mondays. And then, you know, once a quarter, he would meet with 100 people that weren't necessarily respected of the actual org structure. It was like more where the work is flowing to.”
Assertion Contradicted
Brit Morin: Life360 Is Uniquely Interoperable Across Apple and Google
“And it's really the only app and network that is interoperable across Google and Apple.”
Assertion Supported
Dave Morin: Apple shifted 14% of iPhone production to India quickly
“Although, I did see, Jess, in, in Apple news this week, I'm quite impressed that they've shifted 14% of iPhone production to India in a very short period of time.”
Assertion Contradicted
Lessin: Apple used the Vision Pro T-Rex demo to pitch Bob Iger
“I didn't watch it yet, but I knew about that because we reported in the information that that was the moment when they demoed it to Bob Iger.”
Assertion Supported
Jessica Lessin: The Information leaked Vision Pro renders two years early
“Two years ago, we published the render of, and it looks the same, so that tells you how long it takes to make artwork.”
Assertion Partly supported
Morin: iPhone 17 Pro features 48MP cameras and 200mm telephoto lens
“I like the pro it's got a great new camera suite. All three cameras are 48 megapixels and Sam, you'd probably appreciate this, but the Telephoto lens on the pro is now 200 millimeters, which is pretty insane.”