The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

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why aren't all 32 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Assertion Partly supported
Apple's Foundation Models Are Actually Distilled Google Gemini Models
“And what it looks like they've done here is just taken, you know, state of the art Gemini models, both the on-device local flavor, as well as the cloud flavors and distilled them for their own purposes into these, you know, quote, Apple foundation models. Whic…”
Dave Morin Jun 12, 2026 ▶ 6:20 Apple’s New Siri, SpaceX’s $300B IPO & the AI Company Killing Its Own Brand · More or Less Podcast
Prediction Held up
Brit Morin predicts Apple will acquire a major AI company like Anthropic
“Speaking of Apple, I think they come back next year, both in the AI realm, like they're going to make either one big acquisition, like an topic.”
Brit Morin Dec 19, 2025 ▶ 16:43 Hype vs Reality: Our 2026 Predictions for Tech, Media, and Culture · More or Less Podcast
Assertion Supported
Jessica Lessin: The Information reported Apple paused next Vision Pro
“The information is reported there, they're not even working on the next version of it.”
Jessica Lessin Jun 28, 2024 ▶ 46:23 #53: What We Got Wrong—and Right—in a Year of More or Less · More or Less Podcast
Prediction Held up
Lessin: Apple will not remove TikTok due to China exposure
“Apple's not gonna kick them out. Apple's China exposure is enormous, right? Like, you know, even if they should, they won't, right?”
Sam Lessin Dec 1, 2023 ▶ 12:37 #25: TikTok, Porn and The Immediate Risks of AI · More or Less Podcast
Assertion Supported
Jessica Lessin says Apple and Google partnered for Gemini to power Siri
“Google and Apple are doing a Siri deal, so Siri is going to be powered by Gemini, essentially, until, until Apple, quote, figures it out, but it, there seems to be this pattern here of Apple realizing Google is, is pretty good at this stuff, and they'll be pre…”
Jessica Lessin Nov 7, 2025 ▶ 13:28 Apple Chooses Gemini, Sequoia's Leadership Shake-up, and Meme Coins · More or Less Podcast
Assertion Supported
Dave Morin: Apple spends 10-20% of income on CapEx versus 50%+ for peers
“Apple spending something like 10 to 20% of income on this capex. Everyone else is like well north of 50.”
Dave Morin Oct 10, 2025 ▶ 34:13 Oracle's GPU Margins, OpenAI’s Consumer Playbook, and the Ads vs Commerce Endgame · More or Less Podcast
Assertion Supported
Lessin: Apple Scrapped Satellite Internet Project to Protect Carrier Relations
“Our new, but was previously at the information reporter, Aaron Tilly, and one of our reporters out of Hong Kong, Wayne Ma, published this really interesting in-depth piece about Apple's ambitions in satellite internet, including a lot of details about Project …”
Jessica Lessin May 30, 2025 ▶ 47:35 #101: The Business of OnlyFans, Future of Identity, and Navigating Privacy in the AI Age · More or Less Podcast
Prediction Held up
Lessin: Courts Likely to Bar Apple-Google Search Deal in Current Form
“The courts are likely to say that the Apple Google search deal cannot continue in its current form for antitrust reasons.”
Jessica Lessin May 9, 2025 ▶ 25:37 OpenAI Acquires Windsurf for $3B, Google's Stock Dips | #98 · More or Less Podcast
Assertion Supported
Dave Morin: DOJ artificially narrowed Apple smartphone market to claim a monopoly
“You can't claim that I just on one simple piece of data, which is that Apple doesn't even have a monopoly position in the smartphone market. You know, and like the lawsuit had to reduce the scope of the smartphone market to like just the expensive part of the …”
Dave Morin Jan 4, 2025 ▶ 1:42 #80: More or Less Holiday Special Pt. 2 (Crypto and Antitrust) · More or Less Podcast
Assertion Supported
Dave Morin: Apple denies developers direct access to on-device models
“At the same time, the one thing that I was disappointed about is that you cannot access these local models directly. It's something that a lot of folks aren't talking about. They've put a pretty intense wrapper around it, at least on the developer front. You k…”
Dave Morin Dec 27, 2024 ▶ 41:17 #79: The More or Less Holiday Special Pt. 1 (AI Highlights) · More or Less Podcast
Assertion Supported
Dave Morin: The Apple App Store did $1 trillion in business in 2022
“You know, he was telling me that the app store did a trillion dollars in business in 20, 22 alone.”
Dave Morin Sep 13, 2024 ▶ 19:04 #64: Meta vs. Apple: the Future of Open vs. Closed Tech · More or Less Podcast
Assertion Supported
Jessica Lessin: Apple's U.S. chip manufacturing requires final assembly in Taiwan
“We reported the information that their big bet on, like, US semi-manufacturing actually has this wrinkle that final assembly still happens in Taiwan.”
Jessica Lessin Sep 15, 2023 ▶ 26:03 #14: The Apple Episode (Carbon Neutralish) · More or Less Podcast
Assertion Supported
Sam Lessin: Apple is no longer TSMC's largest client
“But they're no longer TSMC's biggest client.”
Sam Lessin Aug 28, 2026 ▶ 50:59 Meta’s $17B Reckoning & Why Parents Can’t Compete With Big Tech's Algorithm · More or Less Podcast
Assertion Partly supported
Stanford: Apple and Google block independent developers from accessing Wi-Fi location
“Apple and Google or Android have both locks Wi-Fi location. You cannot access it as a developer.”
Scott Stanford Aug 14, 2026 ▶ 15:29 Special Edition MOL with Josh Wolfe, Rachel Holt, Scott Belsky, Scott Stanford, and Peter Deng. · More or Less Podcast
Assertion Partly supported
Dave Morin: 512GB Mac Studio sold out immediately upon OpenClaw launch
“The Apple's Mac Studio, for example, at 512 gigs sold out immediately when OpenClaw launched and has never come back into stock because you want to be able to load an entire model into memory”
Dave Morin May 15, 2026 ▶ 11:50 Google's AI-First Laptop, Meta's Spy Games, AI Monks in Middle America · More or Less Podcast
Assertion Supported
Apple plans for John Ternus as CEO, Tim Cook as Executive Chairman
“This is a transition plan with John Ternus, who we should talk about, taking over as CEO, and Tim Cook staying on as executive chairman, and him taking on some of the going to the White House diplomatic kind of roles.”
Jessica Lessin Apr 24, 2026 ▶ 13:23 What Tim Cook’s “Executive Chairman” Move Really Means | Musk vs OpenAI, xAI and Cursor Rumors
Prediction Held up
Jessica Lessin: Apple Will Not Hire an External CEO
“They're not going to run a search and hire a CEO from another company to run Apple, unless they're like covering.”
Jessica Lessin Apr 24, 2026 ▶ 18:44 What Tim Cook’s “Executive Chairman” Move Really Means | Musk vs OpenAI, xAI and Cursor Rumors
Assertion Supported
Brit Morin: Apple design lead Alan Dye is leaving to join Meta
“Alan Dye, Apple's design lead. Is leaving the company and joining Meta.”
Brit Morin Dec 5, 2025 ▶ 21:57 Code Red, Bitcoin Costs, AWS Resurgence, and Waymo Safety (Not About AI... ish) · More or Less Podcast
Assertion Supported
Jessica Lessin: The Information reports Apple's thin iPhone is suffering weak sales
“Turns out this thing isn't selling as reported in information, delaying next versions, et cetera.”
Jessica Lessin Nov 14, 2025 ▶ 5:05 Apple’s iPhone Sock, Waymo's Bay Area Expansion, and AI Wearables · More or Less Podcast
Assertion Partly supported
Brit Morin: Apple Disbanded Its Centralized AI Team Across Vertical Teams
“Apple disbanded its centralized AI team and actually is now distributing all the AI people onto the vertical teams.”
Brit Morin May 2, 2025 ▶ 21:14 How OpenAI Is Beating Google and Meta at Their Own Game · More or Less Podcast
Assertion Contradicted
Dave Morin: Apple's native parental control features have languished for years
“Cause that's the thing that I think about a lot is that the Apple ones haven't been updated in years.”
Dave Morin Sep 20, 2024 ▶ 19:15 #65: Instagram, YouTube and the Kids · More or Less Podcast
Assertion Supported
Brit Morin: Google's $20B search deal accounts for a quarter of Apple's services revenue
“Google paid Apple, twenty billion for the default search deal, and Apple's services division, which this revenue went into, generated eighty-five billion. So about a quarter of its services division is coming Directly from Google.”
Brit Morin Aug 9, 2024 ▶ 14:14 #59: Google: Can it Outrun Regulation? · More or Less Podcast
Assertion Supported
Morin: Apple's AI release lacks native access to local model APIs
“I was hoping actually that the Apple release would include Like native access to local APIs, but it doesn't which is unfortunate as I was like ready to write checks for social AI stuff”
Dave Morin Jun 21, 2024 ▶ 33:02 #52: Elad Gil on What to Build in AI (Part II) · More or Less Podcast
Assertion Supported
Morin: Apple restricts developers from directly accessing its on-device AI models
“The one thing that I was disappointed about is that you cannot access these local models directly. It's something that a lot of folks aren't talking about. They've put a pretty intense wrapper around it, at least on the developer front. You know, you can use t…”
Dave Morin Jun 14, 2024 ▶ 21:38 #51: Vinod Khosla on What to Build in AI · More or Less Podcast
Assertion Partly supported
Morin: iPhone Air electronics fit entirely behind top camera bump
“I mean, this thing is like mostly battery. The craziest thing about it is that the phone part, like the electronics all fit in the very top and like the top 10th of the phone, like right behind the bump that the camera's in and the rest of the phone is just ba…”
Dave Morin Sep 12, 2025 ▶ 3:27 #116 iPhone Air or Pro: Apple Ignores AI and Wins? · More or Less Podcast
Assertion Supported
Sam Lessin: Apple acquired the studio behind Sneaky Sasquatch
“And you know, it's the top of tech meme today. You know who acquires it? Apple.”
Sam Lessin May 30, 2025 ▶ 53:57 #101: The Business of OnlyFans, Future of Identity, and Navigating Privacy in the AI Age · More or Less Podcast
Assertion Partly supported
Morin: Steve Jobs bypassed hierarchy for quarterly top 100 meetings
“There was like a central core that Steve would meet with on Mondays. And then, you know, once a quarter, he would meet with 100 people that weren't necessarily respected of the actual org structure. It was like more where the work is flowing to.”
Dave Morin Sep 6, 2024 ▶ 16:03 #63: 'Nasty' Founder Mode · More or Less Podcast
Assertion Contradicted
Brit Morin: Life360 Is Uniquely Interoperable Across Apple and Google
“And it's really the only app and network that is interoperable across Google and Apple.”
Brit Morin Jun 7, 2024 ▶ 5:36 #50: Startups to Start: Media Edition · More or Less Podcast
Assertion Supported
Dave Morin: Apple shifted 14% of iPhone production to India quickly
“Although, I did see, Jess, in, in Apple news this week, I'm quite impressed that they've shifted 14% of iPhone production to India in a very short period of time.”
Dave Morin Apr 12, 2024 ▶ 49:36 #42: OpenAI, IP Theft and a New Incentive Structure for the Internet · More or Less Podcast
Assertion Contradicted
Lessin: Apple used the Vision Pro T-Rex demo to pitch Bob Iger
“I didn't watch it yet, but I knew about that because we reported in the information that that was the moment when they demoed it to Bob Iger.”
Jessica Lessin Feb 16, 2024 ▶ 31:57 #34: 7 Trillion Reasons Why · More or Less Podcast
Assertion Supported
Jessica Lessin: The Information leaked Vision Pro renders two years early
“Two years ago, we published the render of, and it looks the same, so that tells you how long it takes to make artwork.”
Jessica Lessin Jun 12, 2023 ▶ 2:10 #1: Apple's head scratchy VR rollout; VR vs. AI in the interface wars; crypto's 'nothing burger'? · More or Less Podcast
Assertion Partly supported
Morin: iPhone 17 Pro features 48MP cameras and 200mm telephoto lens
“I like the pro it's got a great new camera suite. All three cameras are 48 megapixels and Sam, you'd probably appreciate this, but the Telephoto lens on the pro is now 200 millimeters, which is pretty insane.”
Dave Morin Sep 12, 2025 ▶ 4:21 #116 iPhone Air or Pro: Apple Ignores AI and Wins? · More or Less Podcast
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