The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 14 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Assertion Supported
Brit Morin: Deel CEO allegedly recruited Rippling employee as paid spy
“Keith O'Brien, who was the man allegedly spying for deal while working at Rip Lane had to Put out an affidavit today, and he basically, like, came forward and just was like, all right, here's the truth. Alex, how do you pronounce his name? Boise, Boise, the CE…”
Brit Morin Apr 4, 2025 ▶ 46:53 Can Tesla Survive? | More or Less #93 · More or Less Podcast
Assertion Supported
Anthropic has completely overtaken OpenAI in revenue
“So I'm just curious how you reconcile what you were saying about the costs and everything with just the unprecedented growth that Anthropic has seen and the like flippening with open AI where it has just completely overtaken open AI from a revenue perspective.”
Amir Efrati May 29, 2026 ▶ 20:02 Normal People Don't Want AI Agents (And Silicon Valley Can't Accept It) · More or Less Podcast
Assertion Supported
Morin: Anthropic is raising at an $800B valuation
“And Anthropic this week, I heard, is also now raising at an eight hundred billion.”
Brit Morin Apr 17, 2026 ▶ 25:23 Allbirds Pivoted to AI Data Centers | SpaceX $1.5T IPO, Anthropic $800B, $175M Seed Rounds
Prediction Held up
Sam Lessin: People Will Kill Themselves and Others Because of AIs
“And like, at some point people are going to start killing themselves and each other because of AIs.”
Sam Lessin May 2, 2025 ▶ 43:58 How OpenAI Is Beating Google and Meta at Their Own Game · More or Less Podcast
Assertion Supported
Lessin: Polymarket directed influencers to fake trades and earnings
“But Polymarket has been directing influencers to make fake videos about fake trades and reporting fake earnings for their influencer program.”
Jessica Lessin Jun 26, 2026 ▶ 21:39 Chinese AI Model GLM 5.2 Beating Frontier Models | Meta Glasses, Polymarket Scandal, AI Talent War · More or Less Podcast
Assertion Supported
Lessin: Meta has been logging employee keystrokes to train internal AI
“This is a little bit old, but Meta has been keystroke logging employees to train AI, their AI, not so popular.”
Jessica Lessin May 15, 2026 ▶ 23:27 Google's AI-First Laptop, Meta's Spy Games, AI Monks in Middle America · More or Less Podcast
Assertion Supported
Lessin: Leaked OpenAI memo targeted Anthropic's ARR math and compute investment
“There was a memo that was leaked from OpenAI, an OpenAI memo that was leaked. I think it was in OpenAI's interest for this memo to be out there. I also think it was written in a way where they wanted it to be out there, where they came after Anthropic. Both fo…”
Jessica Lessin Apr 17, 2026 ▶ 27:05 Allbirds Pivoted to AI Data Centers | SpaceX $1.5T IPO, Anthropic $800B, $175M Seed Rounds
Assertion Supported
Vinod Khosla: The majority of current AI venture investing will fail
“Bottom line, bargain hunting will be a poor bet in AI, but firms putting money to work who invest in all high valuations indiscriminately will do poorly, and that is the majority of the investing that is happening.”
Jessica Lessin Sep 12, 2025 ▶ 28:06 #116 iPhone Air or Pro: Apple Ignores AI and Wins? · More or Less Podcast
Assertion Supported
OpenAI considered an antitrust complaint against Microsoft, WSJ reported
“The journal reported that OpenAI had considered an antitrust complaint against Microsoft.”
Jessica Lessin Jun 20, 2025 ▶ 27:08 #104: AI Clones, Commoditized Ads, and the Cult of Trust · More or Less Podcast
Assertion Supported
Brit Morin: Anthropic CEO Claims AI Will Write Nearly All Code in 12 Months
“The CEO of Anthropix said, he said, In the next three to six months, AI is probably gonna be able to write 90% of all code. And in 12 months, nearly all code may be generated by AI.”
Brit Morin Mar 14, 2025 ▶ 43:23 #90: Silicon Valley Unscripted: Billionaires, AI, and Interplanetary Exploration · More or Less Podcast
Assertion Supported
Lessin: Bezos directs Washington Post opinion to focus on free markets
“Bezos announced today that the Washington Post opinion section is going to wholly, wholly focus on topics that support personal liberties and free markets. So as a result of this, the opinion editor who is award winning, probably Pulitzer Prize winning, but I …”
Jessica Lessin Feb 28, 2025 ▶ 7:20 #88: Meta’s $200B AI Bet, Instagram Reels & The Future of Content · More or Less Podcast
Assertion Supported
Jessica Lessin: DOGE workers self-police conflicts despite unprecedented data access
“You have, you know, employees doing this who have a special status. They are in charge of determining their own conflicts of interest. And they are getting unprecedented access to something that is incredibly sensitive and important.”
Jessica Lessin Feb 7, 2025 ▶ 53:29 #85: The $250M Meme Coin Experiment · More or Less Podcast
Prediction Held up
Sam Lessin: The 2024 Presidential Race Is Effectively Over for Democrats
“I just feel like this is over, right? Which I know is not what you're supposed to say, and, like, that helps purpose with town out and the whole nine yards, but, like, you know, Trump just had, like, one of the all-time ten-day periods ever, right?”
Sam Lessin Jul 19, 2024 ▶ 22:34 #56: Trump and the PayPal Mafia · More or Less Podcast
Assertion Supported
Lessin: Blackstone has only had one fund over 3x in 40 years
“It's like, in the history of Blackstone, they've raised, what is it, like, call it half a trillion dollars. That's again, that's not the number, but it's an enormous number of capital. They've had, like, one fund in, like, 40 years that has done more than thre…”
Sam Lessin May 24, 2024 ▶ 36:02 #48: Move Fast (But Don't) Break Silicon Valley · More or Less Podcast
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