why aren't all 14 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Assertion Supported
Brit Morin: Deel CEO allegedly recruited Rippling employee as paid spy
“Keith O'Brien, who was the man allegedly spying for deal while working at Rip Lane had to
Put out an affidavit today, and he basically, like, came forward and just was like, all right, here's the truth.
Alex, how do you pronounce his name?
Boise, Boise, the CE…”
Assertion Supported
Anthropic has completely overtaken OpenAI in revenue
“So I'm just curious how you reconcile what you were saying about the costs and everything with just the unprecedented growth that Anthropic has seen and the like flippening with open AI where it has just completely overtaken open AI from a revenue perspective.”
Assertion Supported
Morin: Anthropic is raising at an $800B valuation
“And Anthropic this week, I heard, is also now raising at an eight hundred billion.”
Prediction Held up
Sam Lessin: People Will Kill Themselves and Others Because of AIs
“And like, at some point people are going to start killing themselves and each other because of AIs.”
Assertion Supported
Lessin: Polymarket directed influencers to fake trades and earnings
“But Polymarket has been directing influencers to make fake videos about fake trades and reporting fake earnings for their influencer program.”
Assertion Supported
Lessin: Meta has been logging employee keystrokes to train internal AI
“This is a little bit old, but Meta has been keystroke logging employees to train AI, their AI, not so popular.”
Assertion Supported
Lessin: Leaked OpenAI memo targeted Anthropic's ARR math and compute investment
“There was a memo that was leaked from OpenAI, an OpenAI memo that was leaked. I think it was in OpenAI's interest for this memo to be out there. I also think it was written in a way where they wanted it to be out there, where they came after Anthropic. Both fo…”
Assertion Supported
Vinod Khosla: The majority of current AI venture investing will fail
“Bottom line, bargain hunting will be a poor bet in AI, but firms putting money to work who invest in all high valuations indiscriminately will do poorly, and that is the majority of the investing that is happening.”
Assertion Supported
OpenAI considered an antitrust complaint against Microsoft, WSJ reported
“The journal reported that OpenAI had considered an antitrust complaint against Microsoft.”
Assertion Supported
Brit Morin: Anthropic CEO Claims AI Will Write Nearly All Code in 12 Months
“The CEO of Anthropix said, he said, In the next three to six months, AI is probably gonna be able to write 90% of all code. And in 12 months, nearly all code may be generated by AI.”
Assertion Supported
Lessin: Bezos directs Washington Post opinion to focus on free markets
“Bezos announced today that the Washington Post opinion section is going to wholly, wholly focus on topics that support personal liberties and free markets. So as a result of this, the opinion editor who is award winning, probably Pulitzer Prize winning, but I …”
Assertion Supported
Jessica Lessin: DOGE workers self-police conflicts despite unprecedented data access
“You have, you know, employees doing this who have a special status. They are in charge of determining their own conflicts of interest. And they are getting unprecedented access to something that is incredibly sensitive and important.”
Prediction Held up
Sam Lessin: The 2024 Presidential Race Is Effectively Over for Democrats
“I just feel like this is over, right? Which I know is not what you're supposed to say, and, like, that helps purpose with town out and the whole nine yards, but, like, you know, Trump just had, like, one of the all-time ten-day periods ever, right?”
Assertion Supported
Lessin: Blackstone has only had one fund over 3x in 40 years
“It's like, in the history of Blackstone, they've raised, what is it, like, call it half a trillion dollars. That's again, that's not the number, but it's an enormous number of capital. They've had, like, one fund in, like, 40 years that has done more than thre…”