The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 13 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 13 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Sam Lessin: A novel virus will definitely be invented using AI
“The main fear is that a novel virus is, you know, invented, and then crispered, and we have serious problems. Which will definitely happen.”
Lessin predicts OpenAI equity value is headed to zero
“Guys, I've been saying OpenAI zero the entire time. And I'm gonna keep saying it.”
Jessica Lessin: Anthropic will go public by September
“Anthropic will go public. I would be shocked if they're not public in September.”
Brit Morin: Half of Bay Area engineers face unemployment within three years
“Well, you and I said half of the software engineers that are employed right now It in the Bay area will not be employed three years from now.”
Lessin: Bay Area software engineer headcount will drop to 300,000
“Well, so I will go down, in three years, I'll go down to 300,000, and then I think it probably drops.”
Lessin: Washington won't break up Big Tech because they're trading partners
“They're not going to break up the big tech companies because like, that's like the whole point is like they're trading partners of the big tech companies. They want to see them Win, in a lot of ways, on a global basis”
Sam Lessin: Stripe has no interest in going public
“I would go super under on Stripe going out. Those guys are too smart. They have a totally different plan. They have no interest in the public market. And there's no point to them in going public. There's plenty of liquidity in their currency.”
Sam Lessin wagers $1M that no human sets foot on Mars by 2040
“I, a million dollars that a human has been on Mars by 2040. Like set foot, like planted the flag, like boot on sand. Like literally went out of a spaceship, like hung out, did a little dance and I'll bet you a million dollars.”
Sam Lessin: Google Antitrust Monopoly Decision Will Be Struck Down
“I personally think if this is, if the case ended up coming down, they, that the courts defined it as the search ad market was not a monopoly, but the search consumer was, and that I, my money says this gets struck down, which is why the stock isn't.”
Lessin predicts federal antitrust search ruling against Google will be struck down
“So I personally think if this is, if the case ended up coming down, they, that the courts defined it as the search ad market was not a monopoly, but the search consumer was, and that I, my money says this gets struck down, which is why the stock isn't.”
Sam Lessin: Character AI will be displaced by platform incumbents
“Character AI, sayonara. Like, it's not like, you know, it's, these are cool ideas, but the reality is you have the data, you have the distribution. AI is an easy tack on for platforms. This is not disruptive. It's just extending what they can already do.”