The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 9 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Prediction Didn’t hold up
Sam Lessin: Solana will surpass Ethereum in market capitalization
“I think Solana flips Ethereum.”
Sam Lessin Dec 22, 2023 ▶ 1:02:48 #28: What We Got Right and Wrong in ’23 and Calls for ’24 · More or Less Podcast
Assertion Contradicted
Sam Lessin: Early Salesforce was unintegrated one-off software builds
“So the story I've heard, and someone can correct me in comments, I'm sure someone will, is that when he started Salesforce, it was billed as like this cloud CRM. And this platform, but it was total bullshit. He basically went to a bunch of people and sold them…”
Sam Lessin Sep 4, 2026 ▶ 41:12 AI Agents Are Going Rogue. Should We Be Worried? │Claude vs. Grok, Tesla vs Waymo, Google vs Canva · More or Less Podcast
Assertion Contradicted
Forensic experts proved China is funding opposition to Utah data center
“And then he hired forensic experts to go and factually prove that it is China actually funding all of this opposition in Utah. And he actually mapped it a lot. You can go look on his Twitter and Instagram and he shares all of the data. And apparently has now s…”
Dave Morin May 29, 2026 ▶ 14:12 Normal People Don't Want AI Agents (And Silicon Valley Can't Accept It) · More or Less Podcast
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Dave Morin: Most programming will be done in English by late 2025
“I think a year from now you know, most programming will be done in English. And I think that's the, there's almost no question.”
Dave Morin Dec 20, 2024 ▶ 11:25 #78: 2024 Tech Company of the Year + 2025 Predictions · More or Less Podcast
Assertion Contradicted
Lessin claims Spotify fired its Wrapped team and used AI instead
“Well, and believe it or not, at least I saw on social media, they had fired the entire team. So this was, they were able to produce with no people using AI.”
Sam Lessin Dec 13, 2024 ▶ 21:46 #77: Sora Reveal, Google's AI Agents and Digital Trade Under Trump · More or Less Podcast
Assertion Contradicted
Morin: Tesla assembled the largest supercomputer in human history
“Tesla has also assembled the largest supercomputer in the history of humanity. That's a Tesla asset that is the GPU cluster that they've put together.”
Dave Morin Oct 18, 2024 ▶ 23:29 #69: Robots, Rockets, and Elon Hype · More or Less Podcast
Assertion Contradicted
Thiel Claimed Bill Gates Founded His Foundation to Pay Off Melinda
“The one thing that really pissed me off about the Peter Thiel, Joe Rogan interview was a long section where he Sort of claims in that Peter Thiel way that the only reason Bill Gates started the Gates Foundation was to pay off Melinda Gates instead of giving he…”
Jessica Lessin Aug 23, 2024 ▶ 12:24 #61: The Venture Capital Reset Era · More or Less Podcast
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Sam Lessin: An outright US ban on TikTok will never get done
“I think saying ban TikTok, that's a thing that like candidly might be marginally better, but you'll never get done.”
Sam Lessin Mar 8, 2024 ▶ 13:33 #37: TikTok's Latest Crisis, Elon's Emails, AI Monopolies · More or Less Podcast
Assertion Contradicted
Brit Morin: AI transcription has wiped out court reporting jobs
“Court reporting is a job that is just gone. Like, the whole, like, her whole life, she spent typing what everyone's saying at a speed so fast that she could follow along, and now it's just wiped out.”
Brit Morin Sep 1, 2023 ▶ 7:31 #12: Inside the VC brain · More or Less Podcast
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