Prediction certainty 4/5 debate potential 3/5

Lessin: Incumbents like GitHub will crush competitors in AI development

Sam Lessin · OpenAI Teams Up with Jony Ive, Vibe Coding, Gemini, and More | More or Less #100 · More or Less Podcast · May 23, 2025 · at 49:32

Sam Lessin discusses why distribution and deployment infrastructure will decide which AI development tools succeed long term.

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“The incumbents are going to crush it. Like GitHub is going to crush it because if you think about like the real places where there's leverage and blockers, right? It really is going to be like, who's actually deploying my production code because they actually know it's up or like, who knows? I don't care what people say. I care who's actually using what in what cases in production. And like people like GitHub know that, right? AWS knows that. You need to deploy the code to own it.”

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