Dec 22, 2023 · 1h 8m · more-or-less
#28: What We Got Right and Wrong in ’23 and Calls for ’24 · More or Less Podcast
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In the 2023 year-end finale of the More or Less podcast, hosts Jessica Lessin, Sam Lessin, Dave Morin, and Britt Morin review pivotal tech events—from the collapsed Adobe-Figma merger to shifting venture capital dynamics—and share their 2024 predictions across AI, social media, deep tech, and crypto.
How this conversation actually went
Every chapter scored 0–10 on four independent dynamics. Hover any point for the reasoning behind the score. The hosts hold 82.5% of the talking time here. How this is scored →
The hosts as informed peer 6.4 Guest teaching 3.4 Guest disagreement 3.3 The hosts pushing back 3.9
speaking balance: gold is the hosts, purple is the guest (3 minute bins)
Sharpest disagreement ▶ 30:53 Britt rejects Jessica and Dave's optimistic framing on Threads
Britt directly refutes Jessica's assertion that creators use Threads, explicitly distinguishing professional news reporters from authentic influencers who show zero enthusiasm for the platform.
Hardest push from the hosts ▶ 47:30 Hosts aggressively mock Britt's historical phrasing errorSam and Dave refuse to let Britt's slip about Winston Churchill's reign pass, highlighting it as an example of AI conversational confusion and pushing back on her claim.
Biggest teaching moment ▶ 7:52 Britt contextualizes Adobe's acquisition timeline against the 2022 bubbleBritt educates the table on the exact 2022 deal timing, illustrating that Adobe dodged an overpriced asset right before internal AI product rollouts lowered Figma's relative leverage.
The host holds their own ▶ 50:43 Sam dismantles generative music hype using economic fundamentalsSam counters Dave's optimistic forecast of AI music as a new standalone cultural genre by explaining how generative audio will strictly displace commodity elevator music.
the scores for every segment, with the reasoning behind each
| Chapter | Topic | The hosts as informed peer | Guest teaching | Guest disagreement | The hosts pushing back | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adobe-Figma Merger Collapse and Antitrust Fallouts | 7 | 5 | 3 | 5 | Hosts Sam and Jessica break down antitrust precedence, cash-and-stock M&A dynamics, and platform incentives. Britt provides a sharp reality check noting the deal was signed in a 2022 bubble environment before the generative AI wave, arguing Adobe actually dodged a bullet. | |
| The Changing Face of Venture Capital in 2023 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 3 | The hosts dissect venture capital shifts, categorizing late-stage AI mega-rounds as undisciplined private equity. Britt notes fund consolidation and failures like OpenView, keeping the dynamic largely aligned. | |
| In-Person Work vs. Remote Culture and the Hybrid Startup | 5 | 4 | 4 | 5 | Britt pushes back on rigid in-person work dogmas by advocating for working mothers and parents needing hybrid flexibility. Sam acknowledges the nuance but insists in-person teams serve as a natural filtering mechanism that will outcompete remote operations. | |
| The Social Media War: X (Twitter) vs. Meta's Threads | 7 | 5 | 6 | 5 | Britt bluntly dismisses the narrative around Meta Threads, insisting real influencers and creators are completely unengaged with the platform. Jessica and Sam push back, citing their creator network insights and Meta executives' ability to grind through graph challenges. | |
| Dave's 2024 Predictions: New Social Formats and Spatial Computing | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | Dave outlines his spatial computing predictions and personal experience testing spatial video on iOS betas. Britt chimes in with consumer price skepticism and playful family banter. | |
| Britt's 2024 Predictions: AI Memory Offloading, Chatbots, and Layoffs | 6 | 5 | 5 | 6 | Britt shares forward-looking predictions about voice chat AI offloading human memory, but the hosts aggressively tease her slip regarding Winston Churchill's reign. Britt defends her Vision Pro optimism against host skepticism regarding high consumer prices. | |
| Pop Culture and AI: Generative Music and Taylor Swift Forecasts | 5 | 4 | 5 | 5 | Dave predicts AI music becoming a standalone genre while Sam argues it will remain cheap clip-art background audio. Britt shifts into pop culture predictions, roasting Travis Kelce's spelling ability while Dave defends his Hall of Fame athletic status. | |
| Sam's 2024 Predictions: Election Chaos, Disinformation, and Pickleball | 6 | 2 | 3 | 3 | Sam forecasts 2024 election chaos and shifts in how the public perceives influence campaigns post-Cambridge Analytica before pivoting to an indoor pickleball rant. Britt dismisses his election take as overly obvious. | |
| Jessica's 2024 Predictions: Market Volatility and Deep Tech Infrastructure | 8 | 1 | 1 | 3 | Jessica leads the segment predicting deep tech infrastructure, energy demands, and the convergence of foundational research and business applications. The exchange remains an agreeable strategic discussion among co-hosts. | |
| 2024 Crypto Outlook: Bitcoin ETF and Solana's Ascent | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | Sam and Dave highlight Solana's technological performance and predict a Bitcoin ETF launch. Britt interjects an anecdote about encountering a California state official who worked on state AI policies. |
Statements from this episode (22)
Sam Lessin: Blocking Big Tech acquisitions forces startups to build profitable businesses
“I think this is like pretty good because all of a sudden as a startup, you'd be like, you actually have to build a successful business to go public and make money and like be a successful company. You can't just build a product that's strategically valuable to…”
Sam Lessin: Adobe will dominate the integration of AI in creative tools
“Adobe's gonna crush it on AI. We've said this repeatedly since the early days. Like, the Adobe of AI is Adobe, right?”
Sam Lessin: The United States should ban TikTok
“We absolutely should ban TikTok. It's completely insane that we would allow, like, a foreign.”
Britt Morin: M&A activity and IPOs will increase in 2024
“I still think there's going to be more MNA next year too, because a lot of companies are continuing to like dwindle and can't find footing and funding. But I also do predict, and I don't know if we're in prediction territory yet, but I do predict the IPOs beco…”
Sam Lessin: Public market investors should avoid buying Instacart stock in 2024
“And I will say in 24, you should still not buy Instacart stock.”
Dave Morin: Big Five Tech Platforms Accrued Over $3T Recently
“The amount of value that's accrued to the big five tech platforms over the last five to seven years is, you know, something in excess of three trillion dollars.”
Dave Morin: Cooling $100M+ acquisitions severely hurts the Silicon Valley ecosystem
“That's maybe the only worry here is that we're going to have this deep cooling effect on large acquisitions and maybe not big 10, twenty billion dollar ones, but if it cools things down in the hundred million plus category, that really hurts the Silicon Valley…”
Britt Morin: More VC Firms Will Shut Down and Consolidate in 2024
“I think that we're going to see more of that happen over the next 12 months. And more consolidation.”
Sam Lessin: Remote startups will all underperform compared to in-person companies
“People are just saying, like, you should not invest in companies that are remote, because, like, they're all gonna underperform.”
Dave Morin: The future of work will remain largely hybrid
“Largely people aren't gonna go back to
[1541] Dave Morin: One or the other. I think it's going to be a hybrid weird world going forward. And so our takes almost don't matter. It's not like one of these things where all of society at large is just going to swit…”
Britt Morin: Humans will lose cognitive memory in 2024 due to AI
“And I think next year we're also going to start losing our memory. And I think we're going to lose our memory more because AI is going to start handling so much stuff for us and remembering stuff for us.”
Britt Morin: People will start talking to AI voice chatbots in private much more
“And at the same time, I think we're going to start talking to ourselves a lot more in private.”
Britt Morin: Apple Vision Pro will sell modestly but exceed user expectations
“I don't think it's gonna sell a lot, but I think people are gonna be more impressed than they think.”
Jessica Lessin: 2024 will not be a breakthrough year for mixed reality
“I do not think that next year is going to be a breakthrough year, but we shall see.”
Britt Morin: AI productivity gains will drive continued corporate layoffs
“The last one I'll say is that I do think AI layoffs will continue happening in earnest. Like, I think people will start to have layoffs because of the productivity structures of their workforces.”
Dave Morin: AI-generated music will become its own distinct genre in 2024
“I think that AI music as a genre
Is it going to rise in a huge way next year?
Like, I think that it's going to become a genre all its own.”
Sam Lessin: AI music won't be popular beyond cheap background tracks
“I'm going to go under on it actually being popular next year.
I think what will happen is that there'll be a lot of like background music or elevator music that will be AI generated because it's cheaper, right?”
Jessica Lessin: AI power constraints will reshape tech more than model improvements
“Would be a lot more attention on the Power behind AI that is required, and I think that's gonna, like, reorder the AI landscape more than, like, is GPT 3.9, you know, different from Gemini 7.2, right?”